Monday, August 31, 2009

The LA Dodgers have decided to strike last...

Sick and tired of getting chased after by the Rockies and the Giants after squandering a massive lead in the NL West, the Dodgers have decided to take advantage of two teams in full fire sale mode and infuse their team with just a little more talent.


The Los Angeles Dodgers now have themselves a whooping stick and on baseman for the clutch scenarios of life as well as a solid innings eater. And if the Dugout has taught me anything? Jim Thome will make everything better. Everything.

Jon Garland? He will knock you down.

Also? Brad Penny and Jose Contreras went to the NL West also rans. Boston fans will forget every other World Series since 2005 and call the NL the Special Olympics.

I tremble in excitement about that.

Ten things I learned from a 6 pack of fantasy football drafts.

It was a busy weekend. In between my disc problems, my blogger auction league, as well as my paid league? I had a busy and painful weekend. So, we're going to get back into the bloggersphere with a list post. Nice and easy. Baby steps. Rehab it.

10. Inexplicably, I like the Raiders.

In every league I've found myself with at least one or two Raiders. Usually it was someone along the lines of Darren McFadden with a Michael Bush chaser. But I do think we could see a pretty good season for JaMarcus Russell. Or, at the very least a solid season from Zach Miller, and Chaz Schilens as my upside guy.

9. Peyton Manning is a 3rd round pick.

And that's just value right there.

8. Brandon Marshall is falling into the double digit rounds.

And if he gets to Round 10? You have to take a flier. He may not play for you, or he may win the league for you. Draft him as a solid WR4.

7. If you can get Jason Witten in the 4th round?

I know it's a deep year for tight ends, but no one has numbers that can rival a WR1. Either get Witten or wait for some good depth in the 7th-8th Round.

6. You can make the playoffs without drafting a running back until Round 5.

Guys like McFadden, Ray Rice, and Marshawn Lynch can be a 1-2 punch for your team in rounds 5 and 6 of your scenario. You can find value late at running back.

5. You should not autobid in an auction draft full of first timers.

They act like they're in the pits of the NYSE in the dotcom era. And you're left with LenDale White as your starting runner and Ahmad Bradshaw as a 12 dollar bid and 8 receivers. Take the time and price your players.

4. Get Chaz Schilens during week 2.

Just trust me.

3. I don't trust MJD as a #1 running back in non-PPR leagues.

But he's a safer play than Adrian Peterson in a full Points Per Reception League.

2. My #1 unsexy mid-round Running Back?

It's Earnest Graham. He's going to get all the Tampa goal line carries. He could be all LenDale White.

1. My #1 sexy mid-round running back?

Leon Washington. This could be the year he becomes Tiki Barber.

Friday, August 28, 2009

Hey Michael Crabtree?

Casting a wary eye toward the future.

You don't know me. You don't have to listen to me. But in the days and nights that followed the crazy between when you went guns up on Texas and got passed by my local sports team I've became a fan of your game. I didn't even mind the rumors of you acting a fool at the draft.

But you're being dumb. You're in the wrong sport to be asking for a unicorn. I mean you're not asking for a unicorn, but a football team isn't going to go above slot for you like you're some baseball phenom with signability issues. That's why a football player gets that endorsement deal.

I mean, you must take come comfort in your money from EA Sports for NCAA 10, yeah?

It's not as if you didn't try and make some magic. You got the right guy to get you money if you were a top 3 pick. But you weren't. So you've got to man up. You sit out a year? The precedent is Mike Williams. Everybody is going to compare you to Mike Williams. You'll be picked in the mid-twenties because of it. No rookies in the mid-twenties gets to do commercials for Subway.

I know wide receivers get to act the fool and have no one care. But you know what? You aren't there yet. Even Keyshawn had 8 td's as a rookie before he ghostwrote his screed toward the organization that dared want his services. And if this is something else altogether toward the city of San Fransisco? Let me just say you've got nothing to worry about.

They're not going to make you live in the Castro. You aren't gonna have to live in the city of the gays if you don't want to. What with 10th pick money and the massive amount of forclosures in California? You can get a House and build a gay moat to keep all the Socalists and Hippies who want you to gay marry out of your life.

But it's not going to happen until you sign.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

A draft in repose...

The Brian Michael Bendis forum is a pop culture hodgepodgeatorium with an obvious comic book bent to their style. But there is an actual active fantasy football community. At least enough for two leagues. This one was the one deemed expert.

I came in the young upstart. I want you to check this team out and my thought processes behind it.


I went with a pairing that I could use in a committee format if necessary and I found that at least one of them would have upside. David Garrard is the one who I'm expecting to take the lion's share of the snaps. He actually has receivers now. Apparently. Ben Roethlisberger was just too much of a value in the tenth round not to be selected. He's a better real football player, but this is a good committee.

Running Backs

The draft started with what some people would consider a mistake. Maurice Jones-Drew was available at #3. I passed on him. For DeAngelo Williams. I don't have Jon Stewart. But this is going to be a strong move because Jon Stewart is having achilles issues.

Ronnie Brown at #2? It's a contract year. And as a third round pick goes? Gotta love it. And with some PPR value? Darren McFadden is a strong 3rd running back/4th round pick.

But wait! There's more. With a return bonus as well as some PPR value, if this be the year Leon Washington becomes Tiki Barber, I will get myself some maximum value. And Earnest Graham as a #5 is simply solid. Michael Bush as an RB6? That was just me showing off.

Wide Receivers

A 12 team league, I'm picking 3rd. With 19 picks in between DeAngelo Williams and Round 2? What would I do? I would have Calvin Johnson fall into my lap. Megatron means the kid got lucky.

Nothing else inspires nearly as much love. Santonio Holmes and Jerricho Cotchery are both solid. Holmes missed his breakout year. Cotchery is a possession guy. I still like Josh Morgan's upside, even as his average draft position slides back into the mid-30's. And Devin Thomas? Likely gonna be cut.

Stupid Malcolm Kelly.

Tight Ends

Antonio Gates and Dustin Keller. Yeah. I feel strong here.


Neil Rackers? Text-based fart noise.

Team Defense

As this is a Yahoo league? I got screwed into getting the Miami Defense. I cut them for the Jacksonville Defense right after the draft. On paper, they're not much better, but they have the schedule to get hot quickly. And teams with good defenses by Week 4 are in great shape.

The Packers should be fine. I like them.


I used a cheatsheet here. And according to the fine folks who built Draft Dominator? I am ridiculously strong here. Terrell Suggs? DL1. Barrett Rudd? LB1! Adrian Wilson? DB...2 But he comes with Kerry Rhodes at DB3! I hate IDP. But that was fun.

All in all? Good luck, and I make the playoffs. Where my stupidity will cost me cash and prizes!


Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Hey "Rescue Section"

Remember when I said I was on to your little game? You fired another shot into the comment moderation hopper. I mean, really. No one else deigns to comment. I'm busying myself on other sites and with other things.

I just have to ask. What, exactly, does the trade for Jody Gerut have to do with Viagraish pills. Answer me that, and I will let you go and spam that post to your hearts content.

I mean, Jody's a dude, dude.

Monday, August 24, 2009

Is Shaun Hill a sleeper?

I mean, he is the Niners QB for better or worse. And last year, he was starter worthy during the second half of the season. But the offense isn't going to be near as pass happy. Logically? He's a QB2 who will be rated in the mid-20's by most people. You can make a steal in the 14th round.

Nothing wrong with that.

Edgerrin James: Does it matter?

Likely no.

Not to say that he's not going to get playing time in Seattle. It's Julius Jones and Justin Forsett, with T.J. Duckett's disappearance. And that means he is at the simplest, he's going to be the goalline vulture. But that being said? The line sucks and Edge is old.

If he had anything left in the tank, he wouldn't have been signed during the stretch where everybody's drafting. But since he's going to get carries? You have to know. And I'll tell you.

He's a fringe RB3. He'll get a lot of carries at the get go. But he's going to be Jamal Lewis with more carries and fewer yards. Pass on him until Round 9/10. Don't stretch.

Sunday, August 23, 2009

David Eckstein is a Shapeshifter

Or the Norse God Loki, because I'm confused.

Okay, here's the thing about moneyball. It's about hitting them where they a'int, to borrow a phrase. Nobody holds OPS on regard? Get the guy who walks. People too protective of the stat guy? Load up on the toolsy prospects. It's all about zigging where the other guy zags. And it makes perfect sense.

Not to say you can't old school your way into contention. The Brewers and Twins have been interesting teams based on old school scouting and savvy trading. But here's the one true common sense fact in baseball.

If you make moves to extend veteran mediocrities? You're doing it wrong.

I mean, the Padres have made an effort to clear the decks and start a youth movement. Not a fun thing to do, but sometimes it just has to be done. You load up on new prospects. And it's going to be fun?

But then you go and extend David Eckstein? Forgive me, but that does not make sense. I mean? He brings nothing to the table. He's stopped running, he doesn't get to as many balls as your average second baseman, and he doesn't even walk. Obviously, he deserves more work as a baseball player.

I mean fuck. Casey McGeehee fell out of the sky for the Brewers. You can't trust your scouts?

This is making my head hurt! Christ! I want answers, Kevin Towers! I want answers!

Troy Williamson: Really?

I can't believe that I'm going to blog about this. The post-hype sleeper is almost non-existent in fantasy football. You get your shot, and you miss? You don't get the second chance to make a first impression. Well, unless your name is Thomas Jones.

Or Troy Williamson?

It's not as insane as you would think. Sleepers are all about skills, means, and opportunity. And with the 350th injury to Mike Walker? Suddenly, Troy Williamson has a second chance to make a first impression.

But will he? The reason why he was fail in Minnesota was because he had problems catching the ball. Now, I'm sure some of this was based on problems tracking the ball in flight. But are we going to see him suddenly struggle again? I mean, the Jags love their rookies.

This is actually a must-watch scenario. You're looking at him as a strictly last round thing. But oddly enough, he's got a chance of glory. And isn't that what you want? A speedburner with upside? I'd say so.

To the Japanese dude who keeps trying to spam me...

After a certain point? Comments are moderated and the handsome host does know how to use google. I'm not fooled by the fact that you have a language that translates to a bunch of squares in English. I mean, really. I expect better.

And besides, SEC Football Blogger is where the spam attack would be better served.

Saturday, August 22, 2009

The five things Packer fans should be feeling.

Our team is 2-0, and the first string has looked spectacular through two games. But it's preseason. I know. Doesn't count. I know this. But I'm going to try and seperate the myth from the truth. I do this for you.

1) The Packers defense is ready.

Hold on that. Sure, the first string has been dominant. And sure, last year showed this team has a natural proclivity for ballhawking. But here's the thing. Cleveland sucks on offense and the Bills line is just awful. If they make Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals D look bad next Friday? That will tell a lot.

2) The first string offense looks spectacular.

Yeah. In general. The line needs to gell and people need to know their roles, but the skill position guys? They look good. Jermichael Finley will be a weapon who will make the offense go. When the Packers have had a productive TE? Great things happen.

3) If you need a linebacker?

This looks to be the place to scout. Desmond Bishop is a second team killer. Brady Poppinga is showing more flashes of brilliance. With Clay Matthews and Nick Barnett not playing and Spencer Havner trying to be captain versatile, you may see a squeeze.

4) B.J. Raji will be immovable.

I'd like to see him play against a real offensive line? But the BULLDOZER moves are really fun to watch. I'm happy so far.

5) Brian Brohm is a bust.

Not yet. But he's close. He led a sheltered life in college, and this is something that he just doesn't seem to be handling. Flynn says his arm is okay. But the Packers are in trouble if Rodgers goes down for an extended period of time.

Oh Josh McDaniels...

You're going to get fired. Maybe it won't be this year. But somebody's off to a really bad start. Like Terry Porter in Phoenix sort of a start. It's that bad I'm making a basketball reference.

Anyway. The reason why this is sort of an interesting turn of events? This is the sort of thing that Bill Belichick did in Cleveland. It's true. Ask your resident member of Waiting for Next Year, major stars got run off for a seemingly irrational reason. I mean, Bernie Kosar may not have had the same sort of skills as a Jay Cutler, but they both got run for an odd reason.

And you have McDaniels deciding to not let Brandon Marshall make a run for big free agent dollars. I mean, you don't have your baby T.O. play free safetyon scout team. It makes you scratch your head. Marshall seems as if he came to camp prepared. And Matt Cassell is showing himself to be hack.

But hey. That's okay.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Sorry about today.

Head was elsewhere. Helped a friend on Fantasy Football. Reported on just exactly why Kentucky and Vanderbilt won't go bowling. Did some job applications.

I'll bring more tomorrow.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Jerry Tarkanian is right.

If you don't recall, Tark is the man who waged a one man war against the NCAA for the better part of three decades. Put it this way, Tarkanian was the Duke family, and the NCAA was Boss Hogg. And he said something that rang true.

I'm going to paraphrase this, but essentially, the NCAA wants to keep its big programs as shining beacons of hope. However, the smallest programs get smacked upside the head for little more than a pick-up game. Don't believe me?

Here's the story of Southest Missouri. They've just been put on a three year probation. It includes three seasons of vacated wins as well as scholarship reductions. This is a strong penalty. And what's it all for?

The committee found that the impermissible presence of men's basketball coaching staff members during summer strength and conditioning activities and observation of out-of-season pick-up games occurred in 2006 and 2007. The committee also found that impermissible extra benefits were given to two men's basketball
student-athletes: one in the amount of $239 for unpaid institutional fees in
August 2007, and the other when the former assistant coach drove a
student-athlete 171 miles from campus to Memphis in October 2006.

A two and a half hour drive, two hundred and thirty-nine dollars, and a pick-up game of basketball? And that kills the program for a decade. Even though the staff wasn't forthright about it, this is still merely a missle to a bomb considering the enforcement of the sins of a program like USC (I mean, there's still no punishment for O.J. Mayo yet?) or UConn (Nate Miles and or Ater Majok).

We all know that the NCAA is broken. I wish it wasn't. But it is. This is just the latest instance of it.

Okay. I'll say it.

Brewers aren't making the playoffs this year.

I'm going to give you a second to recover. It's as bad of news as the Abraham Washington Show. But here's the thing. Why aren't the Brewers trying to see if they can't get a prospect for their two free agents to be?

Yeah, I'm not saying there's a 5-star prospect coming back. Doesn't have to be. The Brewers could probably take two upper-level arms of a decent vointage and an A-ball prospect with upside for Mike Cameron and Felipe Lopez. Or two if a team interested in a second baseman (looking at you Atlanta) would be so inclined.

Now I'm glad they're willing to trade Bill Hall. And I'm glad somebody seems inclined to take him. But they have pieces. Pieces that bring value back. And this value would be likely better than some lame draft choice.

Dude. Later.

Monday, August 17, 2009

I hear isn't a taken domain...

I've been willing to give John Hammond the benefit of the doubt. They've gone younger and cheaper with more flexibility. They've found a way to get me kind of excited for the Bucks as a fun to watch team that would be a lot more entertaining then their record indicated.

That is...until today.

Because when you have someone with at least six illegitimate kids finding a seemingly prodigous ability to rack up fouls as a major character flaw, you have to bend over backwards to make him happy. So you trade two of the most potentially exciting Bucks on the team for the Argentinian 2-Guard answer to Luke Ridnour and Loco Roko.

Carlos Delfino is a tall two who can hit an occasional three who spent last year in Russia because he's the sort of guy who has no glaring skill or weakness to his game. Now he's probably better than Sonny Weems, but for a two year deal with an option for three? Send his ass back to Russia.

And Roko Uric. He's a lead guard. He actually has some savior faire when he has the ball in his hands, and as Skiles wants, he is a good defender. But since he's useless off ball, he can't play the two. And he's also here for two years.

Maybe there's a higher floor for Delfino and Uric, but the upside? Please. Amir or Weems doesn't emerge? We have no issues. They gone.

This trade feels like something Skiles demanded. More of a mistake proof team for two high energy players who could help give this team an identity with less money on the docket for 2010. I know, we're not going to get the superstar in free agency.

But here's the thing, sportsfans, if Scott Skiles is still around by the time Hammond has to consider the option on Delfino? I will make the douchiest move ever.

I will put my basketball fandom on free agency, because clearly the good Dr. John Hammond doesn't know what he's doing.

Friday, August 14, 2009

I just want to tell you this briefly...

Andre Brown ruptured his achilles. While the average football fan may not care about the state of Giants running back depth? If you are a savvy cat and on the feed. You would know that I thought highly of Danny Ware as a non-draftable must sign as the waiver situation breaks right.

Now we're down to three real backs in New York. And Brandon Jacobs IS injury prone. Danny Ware just might be worth a home run swing end of draft pick.

Georgia backs just translate to the pros.

If you want to know something...

In the world of Motive, Means, and Opportunity sleepers? I missed a real good one. There was a running back who started three games last season. He played against a murderers row of fantasy defenses. He's going to be back in a back-up/third man in a committee scenario for a more run-centric offense. And he's the back-up to a thumper.

Thumper backs always get nicked up. Ask the people who raced to grab Derrick Ward toward the end of last season. Ask the people who gnashed and wailed as Marion Barber went down. You can find your way into waiver wire magic with a runner.

Which means Tashard Choice has to be on your watch list. Is he draftable? Likely no. You probably have 65-70 backs who have a better shot at carries at present. If you want to take a home run swing at the end of the draft? It's fine. But you're looking at an RB5 in your average league.

But he managed 5.1 yards per carry with the lions share of rushes against the best in the league. Watch him like a hawk. He's rosterable if Felix Jones breaks down.

He could be a real RB1 if Barber does.

Confused by your favorite black athlete being thrilled about the return of Michael Vick?

This video can help.

Cesar Carrillo and the Little Mac references.

I talk fantasy baseball, redemption, and why you should never just shut down a college pitcher suffering from elbow problems. Cesar Carrillo got lit up today. But there's more to the story.

At least I think there is.

Thursday, August 13, 2009

So. It happened.

Michael Vick is now an Eagle.

The Philadelphia ASPCA is quaking in their boots. Donovan McNabb has suffered more athletic indignity than Sidney Poitier did on screen. A.J. Feeley just lost his job. Basically? Shit just got real.

Does this give Philly fans the motivization they need to retake the throne of the most dickish sports fans in America? Yes. Oh God Yes. Vick's offenses are in the top three of worst offenses that you can commit and still return to football. And lord help him if he sucks.

Isn't this the system where Vick lost his fastball? Yes. The West Coast Offense was something that Vick was awful in. Straight up and flat out.

Does this mean the Eagles are cursed? Yes. How many injuries doe the Eagles have right now? Bradley, Celek, DeSean Jackson, Brian Westbrook? And that's just among the major players.

But hey. Maybe Andy Reid can threaten to eat Vick into becoming a good quarterback. I don't know. But Dallas is not my 32nd least favorite team. I can't believe it.

Brew Crew Ball has something interesting...

And I hate them for it. You see, I wasn't exactly hitting up baseball reference when I felt for Bill Castro yesterday. I mean when you fire a coach in the middle of the season? It is most often a career killer.

But if you look at this post? Maybe he deserved it.

But it still doesn't mean I don't want him to land on his feet.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

If you haven't heard? I have a new job title.

I am now the official co-editor and lead writer for and while I am excited for the opportunity. I am going to have to have to make more posts then I've been used to for a while. Can I do it? Can I not? Will it wean me from twitter?

I don't know. But I cracked wise on Florida back-up quarterback John Brantley. In list form.

Don't hold it against me.

Also? Why LSU is Arkansas' best rival? ANSWERED!

Hey Big Ten! Maybe if you win something besides the McDonalds of steakhouse bowls, I wouldn't have walked away!


I'm not unsympathetic to Bill Castro.

I mean, it's not as if a castoff from two organizations that were desperate for any sort of farm talent was going to be a starting pitcher that could stop any sort of bleeding.
It's not as if a team that loses Sabathia and Sheets and replaces that with Braden Looper was going to be a recipe for pitching success.
It's not as if Jeff Suppan's suck wasn't going to keep growing.
It's not as if Chris Capuano brought anything to the table.
It's not as if Manny Parra lost his shit.
It's not as if all the starter issues was going to drain the bullpen of their skills.
It's not as if he's going to get another pitching coach job in the bigs either.

But hey, we live in a world where somebody's got to take the fall for the slump. So Bill Castro's gone.

What does this mean? This probably isn't going to work like the Ned Yost September purge. Billy Hall's been designated for assignment. J.J. Hardy is in AAA. The Mighty Mustache is scrambling. Usually when this happens, it's too little too late.

Monday, August 10, 2009

The Brewers traded for David Weathers...

And as someone who hasn't done much worth a damn before he was 30, I do admire the second and third acts of his career. I admire the fact that he once showed me up. I admire the fact he became good as a Brewer and his return will likely come cheap.

However? Is an 8th inning guy of some renown going to help the Brewers catch the Cubs or the Cardinals? No. The Brewers are 6 games out. And if your starters can't go 7 innings to begin with? You're not going to have them magically get there.

I like the pick-up. But man, the questions the Brewers have are far beyond the purview of a 39 year-old reliever.


I know it's hip to try and punch upward at a blog that's bigger than yours. But I have to ask. Since when is emulating something that we should be proud of?

I'm not saying this to be all why isn't Will Leitch ever going to come back? Because I don't blame Daulerio for the sins of Gawker media. He isn't the gay Englishman who sets out to insult our intelligence on a daily basis. But when the news your site breaks is something along the lines of an "OH MY GOD JOSH HAMILTON GOT DRUNK NO WAY!"

That's lame. That's a news aggregator. That's a news aggregator with an occasional piece of interest by Margary. There used to be a real community at Deadspin. You could find stuff that was interesting among the smaller blogs along with some actual quality writing. But now? It's basically salacious and yellow. They have the power to be something great and they use it to grab photos of drunk athletes and other stupid crap.

Blogging was never going to be a meritocracy. Media groups started buying blog sites. Independent blogs need to be damned spectacular if they're going to gain any traction. In fact, if I was going to talk to 2007 me about starting a blog? I'd say don't bother. You're not going to get readers fast enough.

I'm not going to say that Deadspin is alone in this sin. But Nick Denton's blogs are the standard bearers. You and I are just shmucks trying to grab scraps. I know I like to win as much as the next guy, but I'm not going to try and play the Deadspin game to get there.

Underdogs, interesting stuff, analysis. That's my stride. Move along from this.

Friday, August 7, 2009

The Defense and Kickers in a tier-system format without comment.

Listen, you need a cheat sheet for kickers and defense? I'll give you that. But I'm not going to be tranchant and analytical. I can barely be bothered to make a fart noise about Matt Prater. So, print and let's go.

Don't put this in order, but let's rock this out shall we?


The Elite!

Solid Starters
San Diego
Green Bay
New York Giants

Marginal Starters
New York Jets
New England
Tampa Bay

Back-Ups/2nd Defense in a Committee

One-Week Plug-In

Yeesh (to make an even 25)


The Elite
Stephen Gostkowski
Nate Kaeding
Mason Crosby
Jason Elam

The Solid
David Akers
Rob Bironas
Garrett Hartley
Ryan Longwell
Neil Rackers
Lawrence Tynes

Kris Brown
Robbie Gould
Nick Folk
John Kasay
Jeff Reed
Rian Lindell
Joe Nedney

One-week Plug-in/Guys you'll pick up on waivers for the sucky guys above this tier.
Adam Vinateri
Shayne Graham
Josh Scobee
Josh Brown
Matt Prater
Mike Nugent
Phil Dawson
Steve Hauschka

Boom. Learned.

Fantastical Risers and Fallers.

If you're living and dying with the marks of a preseason fantasy football magazine, you may as well be already dead. Somebody's going to reach out for Matt Ryan and immediately regret their decision. So, here's what I'm going to do. I'm going to show you risers and fallers.

RISING! Jason Capmbell QB-Washington (Now, this is for right now, but it seems as if Devin Thomas is about to roll up and be a valid choice at wide receiver. If this happens, Jason Cambell becomes a backup with upside.)

FALLING! Shaun Hill QB-San Fransisco (Because he just cannot get rid of the shambling corpse of Alex Smith.)

RISING! Pierre Thomas RB-New Orelans (On the strength of...)

FALLING! Reggie Bush RB-New Orelans (His knee is cursed by Armenian voodoo. Big ass sextaped Armenian voodoo.)

A desperate ploy for hits? Yes.

RISING! Derrick Ward RB-Tampa Bay (With the mess at quarterback, the head of the Running Back core is bound to benefit.)

FALLING! Clinton Portis RB-Washington (Age + LaDell Betts as the 3rd down back equals a second round pick with a high downside risk.)

FALLING! LaDainian Tomlinson RB-San Diego (Because Gartrell Johnson is impressive and LT is 30.)

RISING! Chris Johnson RB-Tennessee and Brandon Jacobs RB-New York Giants (The direct beneficiaries of the previous two fallers.)

FALLING! Leon Washington RB-New York Jets (Because in the scenario, he's the second banana and he's not the goal-line guy either.)

RISING! Fred Taylor RB-New England (He's the head of the Patriots RBBC. Still doesn't make him more than an RB3.)

RISING! Michael Floorwax Morning show host-Denver (Shout out to Waxy Lou! Rising!)

RISING! Rashard Mendenhall RB-Pittsburgh (They want him to take over. They will give him more carries as the year goes on.)

RISING! Kevin Jones RB-Chicago (Can he really be the guy who's going to get all the goalline carries? Really Chicago? Really?)

FALLING! Braylon Edwards WR-Cleveland (Last year's dystopian nightmare was borne out of a leg injury and a slow start. Once bitten and twice shy.)

FALLING! DeSean Jackson WR-Philadelphia (Jeremy Maclin may not start, but as a slot man, he'll make some points that Jackson was supposed to have.)

RISING! Anthony Gonzalez WR-Indianapolis (Hands of glue is looking good in camp.)

RISING! Devin Hester WR-Chicago (He's developing a massive rapport with Cutler and he's going to be the WILDCAT QUARTERBACK!

...I really need a sound effect for that.)

FALLING! Domenik Hixon WR-New York Giants (Because Steve Smith is killing it in camp so far. He may not fall back to WR3, but right now he's not WR1.)

RISING! Josh Morgan WR-San Fransisco (Every day Michael Crabtree holds out, Josh Morgan cements himself as a WR1. Crabtree's making threats he wants to hold out for the year.)

RISING! Chris Henry WR-Cincinnati (Because I told you he was undervalued.)

FALLING! Mushin Muhammad WR-Carolina (Because he's old. And Delhomme sucks. More room in the bandwagon for me.)

RISING! Nate Washington and Justin Gage WR-Tennessee (INCONCEIVABLE!)

FALLING! Earl Bennett WR-Chicago (See Devin Hester)

FALLING! Devery Henderson WR-New Orelans, Mark Bradley WR-Kansas City, and Mark Clayton WR-Baltimore (These teases have opporunities to be the man closed by suck and old men.)

RISING! Derrick Mason WR-Baltimore (The old man who shut the door on Mark Clayton.)

RISING! Percy Harvin WR-Minnesota (But let someone else draft him, okay?)

I owe you a rotissional tier report, eh? Maybe later.

I would say something about the John Hughes death...

Because in my top ten growing up, a John Hughes movie was in about half the spots. He colored my worldview and wrote and directed some of the most watchable movies. But this is as far as I'm going to go. Because someone blogged a tribiute to John Hughes that's more far reaching than I could ever hit.

Read this today. It's tremendous.

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

The "Your Guy" Phenomenon...

I'm going to level with you. I cannot abide what Michael Vick has done. Training animals to kill each other and all that is disgusting. But it's a sin that he's paid his debt to society for.

I'm not going to cheer for the man. But he deserves a chance at playing football again. Worse sinners have been allowed to see the field again. I'm not going to hit the cheer button for him. At least, I wasn't before I started hearing the rumblings.

And it's a deep philosophical argument. Not in the Jim Rome provocative, you'd shove Farve out of the way for Rodgers, but bring Vick in sort of way. But should I be all "thank you athletically gifted freak, thank you for coming to join my team?"

It's obvious that he will add a dimension that the Packers haven't had since the days of the late-90's Super Bowl runs. And it's obvious that the Wildcat would play a major role if the Packers decided to take the PR hit. But I honestly don't know. It would be simple just to say don't sign him.

But I want the Packers to win. And if Vick is my guy? So be it.

Remember when I said that when I don't write on the ol' Blog...

...I'm still writing?

Usually, I'm writing something in the form of a screenplay. I have made all of the rookiest of rookie shit mistakes. I took a screenwriting break as I fell in love with the bloggersphere. But, as it's one of the few things that I can do with any real discipline, I keep coming back to it.

That's why the news today was so shocking.

There are so many books on screenwriting. Few were so helpful as Save the Cat. It is about as smart as Robert McKee's story with infinite the amount of the readability. It helped me get back into screenwriting after I crashed as well as burned so spectacularly. Blake Snyder wrote a bible for the screenwriter.

And he passed away yesterday. He was able to make the bad screenwriter mediocre and the mediocre screenwriter good. It's not the most famous legacy, but he's helped me out. I can't hate on that.

Thanks, Blake. Rest in piece.

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

The Undervalued...(ADP Rounds 8-11)

I guess I'm gonna roll up on you with a series. Undervalued from their average draft position. Guys to snap up when the time comes. Not so much sleepers, but sleeper like substances.

Note: I will throw in a defense from the 12-16th round. Especially after Stewart Bradley's ACL injury, this defense has real sleeper value.

QB: David Garrard (10.06 ADP)

There's never much of the Cansei De Ser Sexy with David Garrard. He's never been a stud QB. Somewhere between 10th and 12th place. That's where Garrard lives, though in fairness he hasn't had much to throw to. And for a 10th round pick? It's great value. That being said? There's reason to hope. With Tra Thomas and the draft picks of Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton, you have to figure the offensive line will be stronger than last year.

The receiving corps? It's not without it's upside. Torry Holt could be in line for a renaissance, but his knee is shaky. Mike Walker held off Brandon Marshall in college, but his knees love to shear the ligaments off the bone. But you want to know the strange thing? The Jaguars love all three wideouts that they've drafted. I personally love Jarrett Dillard, but do not sleep on the burner that is Mike Wallace or Tiquan Underwood.

So, what you have here is a fringe starter with tremendous upside.

RB: Ray Rice (8.11 ADP), Earnest Graham (9.10 ADP)

I love Ray Rice. He's a fringe RB2 who could explode. If he gets 300 carries it's 1200 yards and 8 scores (with another 35-40 points as a receiver). It's likely going to be a RBBC scenario. But as it stands? He'll probably get 900 yards rushing, 300 yards receiving, and 8 total scores. Not as sure that he'll be the consistent 20 carry guy.

Earnest Graham is probably going to be the 35-40% of the carries guy in the RBBC that Tampa's going to have if it all breaks right. Will he get the majority of the run on the goal line? Remains to be seen. But you know what? Ward's got a streak of the injury prone in him. And all Mr. Graham does is run with grit and guts. For 9th round ADP, he could steal his way into a Top 20 numbers.

WR: Donnie Avery (8.05 ADP), Domenik Hixon (11.06 ADP)

There are three schools of thought on Donnie Avery. One, he's going to be someone in the Lee Evans school of tantalizing but ultimately disappointing with multiple seasons as a overdrafted bust. Two, he's going to be like Bernard Berrian or Santana Moss as a boom-bust candidate who will run with a 6-181-3, 1-5, 3-161-2, 2-12 series of games. Or three, could he be Greg Jennings? Well, could he be a strong WR2?

I say to that yes. He kind of has a Steve Smith skill set. He's supercharged with speed, and you see him developing the ability to take the slant pattern to the barn. They've done work refurbishing the line, and they don't have anyone else. I believe. He's got 75-1100-8 in his stride.

As for Hixon? You're looking at a potential #1 receiver who did well in replacing a seemingly untenable situation. He dropped a TD in the playoff game and with Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks, you're seeing Giants fans sleep on Hixon. Smith is a valid safety valve, and Nicks does have hands of glue. But someone needs to run the twenty yard out pattern and go up and get it. Bet on Hixon.

TE: Zach Miller (10.12 ADP), John Carlson (9.07 ADP), Dustin Keller (11.02 ADP)

These three tight ends are similar. All are young. All will likely get the number of targets that are commiserate with a wide receiver. All are going into year two or year three. And you're going to see at least one of them go off.

Zach Miller's been the lone dependable part of the Raiders passing game. While he inexplicably had one target last season when the Raiders were in a pure goal line situation? He ended up with 86 targets. Goal line trust waxes and wanes, he's going to get 60 catches and 800 yards either way. It's only a matter of how many scores he gets.

Ironically, considering his ADP anyway, drafting John Carlson is the trickiest proposition. You are not going to see near the attrition that you have seen last year with the Seahawks passing game. But here's the thing, Burleson has disappeared for seasons at a time and Branch has a horrid injury history. Carlson's downside is stagnation. But watch to see who gets the ball in the first quarter.

Rookie quarterbacks are scary. Never mind last seasons rosterability of Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. Rookies are scary. But rookies love the safety valve. And while Jerricho Cotchery will not see his targets drop by any stretch? Most of the missing 120 targets that went to Coles last season are going to go to Dustin Keller.

But here's why Keller is the most likely of these tight ends to breakout. He is the best mix of athleticism and receiving skills that the Jets have. He's going to lose linebackers and overpower safeties. They will gameplan for him, but he's a strong style force.

Def: Green Bay (14.06 ADP)

This may be the insane ramblings of a crazy person. But you look at Dom Capers, and you see a guy who brought three defenses up to speed with great rapidity. And you actually have defensive pieces in Green Bay that were pretty good in 2007, and only had trouble when the glue guy that is Cullen Jenkins went down. Capers generates sacks and stops scores. It's bingo. Considering the torn ACL that we've already seen from Stewart Bradley? Hear me now and believe me later. The Green Bay Packers will be a top 5 defense.

Jeffrey Ross had a brilliant idea...

You need to get friends that are uglier than you. You roll with man-wolfs? You look like a supermodel. This is a part of why I'm a Packers fan. I mean? You see a guy like this, and you know I want to party with you.

I mean, I didn't find this myself, but you look at this, and you know he needs to be an important part of your entourage. I mean, come on.

Monday, August 3, 2009

The Undervalued (12-16th round ADP)

Now I know, all I've really done with my blog is get a pity link and change the fashionability of the blog. It looks all avant-garde. I'm happy with it.

Now, as you could tell, the pity link was based on the premise of Kevin Kolb being a great back-up. We're going to be talking fantasy football. I got a start on their tier system last month, and I'll do more this month. But you know what? The kids' a sleeper homer.

So I'll give you a list. At least one per position. These may not be pure sleeper gold. But they may be a nice thing to remember when you're at the end of the draft and stumped.

QB: Jason Campbell (13.12 ADP)

I'm not telling you to bet on a home run from this pick. Not without someone of the Devin Thomas-Malcolm Kelly picks from '08 emerging. But you know what? He is going into the year with no threats to win his job. He also gets a second year with a playbook, rumors that Devin Thomas may be ready to at least be decent, and a last place schedule with three AFC West opponents. He's currently below Brett Favre in terms of ADP. You could do worse.

RB: Kevin Faulk (Undrafted), Michael Bush (14.04 ADP), Jamaal Charles (13.10 ADP)

You could always do worse in terms of an RB4 than Kevin Faulk. And I'm not talking about one of those frakakta Points Per Catch Leagues either. He's always going to get you around 750-800 total yards and 5 scores. And cosidering the aged and injury prone Patriots backfield, he's a no downside end of the draft pick.

Michael Bush gashed Tampa Bay for 177 yards and 2 scores in week 17. It cost a lot of people jobs. Not the least of whom is possibly Justin Fargas. For while Justin Fargas is steady and dull with his injury prone? Michael Bush is big and fast with soft hands. Someone's going to play Deuce McAlister to Darren McFadden's Reggie Bush. I'd bet on the Kentuckian.

Jammaal Charles downside is as another Kevin Faulkish type of back. If that happens? Expect to get about 150 touches, 750 yards, and 3-5 scores. Not bad for end of draft. But the Chiefs want him to become the next Clinton Portis. With his home run speed and slashery. He's put on muscle and has not lost a step. If he keeps his hands on the ball? He will be starting by 2010.

WR: Josh Morgan (15.01 ADP), Mushin Muhammad (14.05 ADP), Chris Henry (14.12 ADP)

Yeah, the 49ers drafted Darkness Crabtree. Yeah, they still don't have a real quarterback. Yeah, but Josh Morgan has the potential to be a fringe WR3. He's killed it in OTA'S. He showed flashes of brilliance during the season in-between a couple of injuries. Let someone else draft the Darkness. Josh Morgan's the value play for you. 14th round steal.

Lost amidst the running game, Steve Smith, and the final horrendous meltdown of Jake Delhomme was the return to a solid #3 WR status of Mushin Muhammad. Really. He was pretty good as a 35 year-old last year. And he does not have that training camp competition that other elderly receivers look like they have to deal with. It's not much upside, but in the 14th round? You get a dude who gets looks.

Trust. It's a hell of a thing. And while many in the media never had a trust in Chris Henry, young Carson Palmer always did. Now that the narrative about Chris Henry is that he's left his actafoolery behind, you can feel good about drafting him. But considering that in the years that he and Palmer had good health and decent brains, he had 15 scores in 125 targets. That's with Housh and with Chad Johnson. Housh is gone. 8-5 and Palmer are still not all good. Laverneus Coles has never been a red zone threat. Chris Henry looks to be downright efficient.

Saturday, August 1, 2009

The Deepest Quarterback Sleeper that nobody really knows...

Now, that the clock has turned from July to August, baseball takes a rest period as we decide to talk about football. And many of us have an inclination toward the fantastical news reports. And the strength of this research is in the sleeper.

And I have a guy for you to play quarterback that can win you the league off of the waiver wire should disaster strike. It may sound crazy right now, but trust this.

Kevin Kolb

If given the opportunity, Kevin Kolb will be fantastically fantastic.

The Eagles have given Donovan McNabb the keys to an offense that should be spectacular. You have a new Pro Bowl Left Tackle in Jason Peters. You have a new home run threat in Jeremy Maclin, and you have the future Brian Westbrook in LeSean McCoy. Add to that Donovan McNabb's twisty sort of legitimacy in terms of consistency as well as health, and you can see a situation where Kevin can get the opportunity to be great.

But can he take control of it? And didn't he suck last year? Well, in terms of opportunity, it wasn't exactly a situation for the quarterback to succeed. He came in at the half versus a Super Bowl caliber defense. They ate his lunch because he was wild and tried to force things.

Some strong quarterbacks have crapped the bed in their first game. The homer in me wants to mention Aaron Rodgers, so I will. He has great weapons. And two strong triplets can find their way to lift up a third. Not saying you have to draft him?

Just saying you're going to need to break your neck to pick him up if he gets extended time.