Tuesday, October 26, 2010

I'm going to tell you who's going to play for the national title.

I can do it right now. It'll take a bit, but I'll actually see if I can't give this blog some content.

Why, because Yards per play is an important factor. It's not the only factor. But in terms of legitimate quality of team, if you can generate two more yards per play than your defense, your team is truly great. The closer the ratio can get to a 7/4? The more legitimate your team is,

So, where does that leave us? Looking at the BCS, I'm only going to consider the Top 12 because at this point in the year, it's too long of a road with half a season to go. So from Stanford on down to Akron? Good night, drive home safely.

(Arizona could make a dent by beating Stanford and Oregon, but that Oregon State game is too bad of a loss.)

So from #12 to #1 we'll break it down logically. (Yards Per Play/Yards allowed)

12. LSU Tigers 7-1 (5.0/4.5)
LSU is going to lose again. They may even lose twice. Alabama's (7.1/4.7) got a week off to get healthy for the LSU game? And as such Alabama should be at the peak of their powers and LSU's bye week advantage gets negated. They end the year versus Arkansas (7.4/5.4), and while it's going to be close, they do project themselves as a sort of a Mr. Pibb to Auburn's (7/3/5.0) Dr. Pepper. The offense is too good for LSU's lack of it to overcome.

11. Ohio State Buckeyes 7-1 (6.4/4.0)
There's something to be said for the Big 10's season ending early. And while Iowa (6.4/4.7), while out of any sort of national championship contention, looms large for any team that crosses their path. Kirk Ferentz seems to give a deferential treatment to the Buckeyes. So barring the great American Ricky Stanzi going forth and racing to a 21-3 lead? I think the Buckeyes win out.

10. Wisconsin Badgers 7-1 (6.5/5.3)
Being the 11th ranked defense in the top 12 of giving up yards allowed is not going to be so much of an issue for three of the games. Indiana's offense rolls out for 5.7 yards per play, but their defense gives up 6.5. That's going to be most likely the worst of it, inexplicable Northwestern upset notwithstanding. That being said? The Badgers travel to Ann Arbor. They're 6-27 there. Last time there they allowed the only good moment of the first year of the Rich Rod era.

These Badgers can move the ball with some efficiency. But Michigan is generating 7.5 yards per play. That is the game that makes me think 10-2 and the loser of LSU/Arkansas or Sakerlina in the Outback Bowl is the final destination.

9. Oklahoma Sooners 7-1 (5.3/5.5)
The fun fact about the first BCS Poll? Oklahoma was allowing more yards per play than they put up. So the Sooners are paper tigers, so to speak. Stoops should be able to escape unscathed from the next three (Colorado (4.8/6.1), @ Texas A&M (5.5/4.6), Texas Tech (5.4/5.5)) But he ends the year with Baylor, who's doing it on Robert Griffin and an average defense (7.3/5.2), and Oklahoma State, who's deathly afraid of losing the coach whose offensive mind is so strong no hair may grow above it. (6.9/5.1). The Sooners won't win both, and I'm steeling myself for them to win neither.

8. Utah Utes 7-0 (7.4/4.0)
TCU might not be in the national championship conversation for much longer. Utah is generating almost a yard more per play on offense and is doing as well yardage wise as the Horned Frogs defensively. And this game is going to be in Salt Lake City. Though if they do that? San Diego State (6.7/4.6) may be the responding trap game. It's between a game in South Bend and what looks to be one of the last Holy Wars ever with BYU, and the Aztecs have already shown they can play this year, losing by 3 to Missouri and losing by controversy to BYU as their two losses.

And this game is going to be in San Diego.
So yeah, the internet meme shares my beliefs.

7. Alabama Crimson Tide 7-1 (7.1/4.7)
So it looks as if it's going to come down to the Iron Bowl here. Though LSU may just be an emotional response to the fact that Cam Newton has the Heisman on lockdown. But that offense is just not trustworthy, They have to get to 24 points to have a prayer vs. Alabama, and I will not gamble upon it. Auburn on the other hand? Could be different.

6. Missouri Tigers 7-0 (6.0/4.7)
Fun fact? Missouri's going to lose to Nebraska (7.3/4.6). The indie darlings of 2007 are going to get knocked out by that game, because after that point, they'll win out. Beyond Nebraska, Kansas State's defense is terrible (6.1/6.1), and they're the second best chance for the Tigers to get knocked off. But 11-1 and a Holiday Bowl finish is in their future. Celebrate.

5. Michigan State Spartans 8-0 (7.0/4.7)
Like the Badgers and Ann Arbor, Iowa City has been problematic for Sparty. The last time they won there? 1989. Iowa's defense may have been tarnished by their performance against Wisconsin, but they're still the best defense that they've faced all year, and it's Sparty's only real road test. Iowa's going to play the October surprise for a potential BCS title run again, though Michigan State gets the BCS berth via the tiebreaker.

4. TCU Horned Frogs 8-0 (6.7/4.1)
Utah and TCU are similar. They face each other and have San Diego State looming as a spry trap game. For TCU it's the only thing stepping between them and freedom. Well, they play New Mexico, but Mike Locksley's last in yards per play on offense. So in the words of Barney Stinson, please. That being said? An 11-1 TCU may not fall far enough to get aced out of at-large consideration.

3. Boise State Broncos 6-0 (7.7/3.6)
An aside, there's no reason to think Virginia Tech won't go 10-2 and play Florida State for the ACC title. The hiccup with James Madison may not mean a thing to Boise. Traveling to Nevada may not mean a thing to Boise either. Why? Hawaii and the South Carolina corollary. Everybody pointed to the Iron Bowl (late season game) as Alabama's only remaining test.

And while the ostrich Kaepernick is good? Bryant Moniz has the sort of offense that can stay alive even in a game where they're giving a B effort. And as you can see by the comparison below, (not to mention that small thing about a head to head match-up)?

Hawaii (7.5/4.9)
Nevada (7.0/5.5)

Hawaii is the better team. And nobody's talking about them as a legitimate threat for Boise State. Theretofore...the internet meme shares my beliefs.

2. Oregon Ducks 7-0 (7.3/4.5)
Duck fans have a reason to engender some confidence. USC is like a bizzaro LSU (7.3/6.0) that's no fun to root for. And while Nick Foles' hair is awesome? It may not be enough to win a shootout in Autzen Stadium for Arizona (6.4/4.5). So, barring a catastrophic injury/fool acting to a LaMichael James or a Derron Thomas (which in this instance may not matter as much as back in 2007)? The Ducks will be BCS bound with confidence.

1. Auburn Tigers 8-0 (7.3/5.0)
It's not going to be a problem getting to 10-0. Ole Miss is bad at football (6.0/5.7) and UT-Chattanooga isn't going to pull any sort of anything. A.J. Green has been worth a half a yard per play by his presence alone, and when you consider it to be the game just before the Iron Bowl? There's no reason not to believe the Bulldogs can keep it close.

But they won't win. Auburn versus Alabama will likely decide the other compatriot in the BCS title game. And here's why it goes to Auburn.

1. Auburn's sack total? 20, good for a tie for 13th. Alabama's sacks allowed? 22 Good for 105th.
2. Cam Newton. If he's healthy, he was the reason why LSU's defense traveled from great to merely good. Alabama's defense is merely good.
3. Auburn's 9th in 10+ yard plays from scrimmage, and Alabama is 88th in 10+ yard plays from scrimmage.

So, Alabama goes 10-2, Auburn wins the SEC, and they play Oregon for the BCS Title while a lot of turmoil reigns down below the 1-2 spots. And now you don't have to play the games.

You're welcome. Bye!