This seems like a draft where there will these grades will prove to be wildly inconsistent. The Packers have played the upside game with a multitude of their picks. So my final grade will most likely be wrong. But here we go. A preliminary draft grade.
1) Bryan Bulaga (OT-Iowa) A (A ready made heir for Chad Clifton. He'll be a starter before long.)
2) Mike Neal (DT-Purdue) B- (An interesting attempt to bolster the pass rush. He's got a lot of good when it's right. But short arms and getting dinged is worrisome.)
3) Morgan Burnett (SS-Georgia Tech) C (I don't like giving up a pick for him. I don't like that he can disappear and look really bad. But he can hit and he can ballhawk. I may be blaming him for costing the Packers a cornerback.)
5) Andrew Quarless (TE-Penn State) B- (In terms of need? It's an F. In terms of upside? It's an A. In terms of gut feeling about his pro future? B+).
5) Marshall Newhouse (G-TCU) D (Last year they drafted Jamon Meredith and I loved it. He didn't break camp with the Packers. This year? I'm not a fan. And lightning will strike just to spite me. :P)
6) James Starks (RB-Buffalo) A+ (I will tell you this again. If James Starks stays healthy, he will be the heir to the throne. And he's the 3rd down back this year. I love love love this pick.)
7) C.J. Wilson (DE-ECU) B+ (I like this pick. I like it a lot. He seems like the sort of guy who's going to see more time than Lane.)
Final Grade: B- (The picks they made were decent to pretty darn good. But if you're a team where you got torched through the air as they did at the end of the year? You can't stand pat at corner. The Packers did. Thus they lose points.)
Showing posts with label Bornalysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bornalysis. Show all posts
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Friday, January 29, 2010
A very early assessment of what I'd like from the Packers.
This is the sort of scenario that you'd love because the Packers have a window of opportunity that is wide open. The weaknesses are glaring, but we have a draft that's widely regarded to be a better draft in terms of quantity than what we had last year. And I think Double T has a chance to keep this team at Super Bowl contention.
1) Bruce Campbell OT-Maryland
In the first Round, I do expect the Packers to shop smart and go after someone to fulfill the left tackle position. What does Campbell bring to the table? Great athleticism for one thing. A killer combine and I can wave goodbye to this dream. Also, he played much of the year with turf toe. His run game skills are imperfect, but he definitely can fit in a passing league. Groovy.
2) Dominique Franks CB-Oklahoma
This is the sort of guy who would learn how he can attain full Al Harris from being tutored by Al Harris. He's a physical press corner who was a shutdown corner in the Big 12 South. He's fundamentally sound, but he has the hands that turn interceptions to deflections. But for a second round pick? Great value.
3) Antonio Coleman DE-Auburn
We had hoped that Aaron Kampman could convert to a 3-4 Linebacker. It didn't work. Brad Jones basically was a better fit last season on little more than raw talent. It's honestly unknown how Coleman would do in pass coverage, but he's spent three seasons living in SEC backfields. He's got a high motor and a sweet array of pass rush moves. Put him opposite of Clay Matthews. I am literally smiling as I type that.
4) Larry Asante SS-Nebraska
With both safeties as Free Agents, why not take a flyer on a guy who compares favorably to Louis Delmas? He is a killer in the back half of the secondary. Killshots for anybody who would dare cross his path. And in run support? This strong safety is like an extra linebacker. He's not a playmaker vis a vis picks and deflections. But he won't be embarrassed.
5) James Starks RB-Buffalo
If James Starks had a good 2009, he would have been in contention to be a second round pick. Instead? The draft question is wholly combine dependent after he injured his shoulder and missed the season. It's a shame really, because this kid is gifted. High production, above average speed and good strength. He can pass catch as well. (2nd in catches for the Bulls as a Freshman, 300 yards in receptions as a Soph).
6) Ryan Perriloux QB-Jacksonville State
Okay, remember this is what I'd like from the Packers. And I'd like a developmental quarterback. Granted, like when I said I kind of wanted Bernard Scott last year, the ex-LSU QB is odds on going to be a Bengal. But no quarterback has the Physical gifts of Perriloux. I'd be fine with Dan LeFevour or Tim Hiller or some random dude. But I'd take a home run swing here.
7) John Estes C-Hawaii
The Packers have a nice guard prospect in T.J. Lang and beyond that? Not much. John Estes isn't super-powerful but he's with good technique and a great motor. He won't quit on a run play by any stretch. But he can lose his leverage if he has to maintain his fit. So yeah.
Now a scenario where Ted Thompson turns the third pick into a 4 and two 6's isn't out of the realm of possibility. And last year he shocked the world when he traded up for Clay Matthews. So I guess what I'm trying to say is the total number of picks will in no way be seven.
1) Bruce Campbell OT-Maryland
In the first Round, I do expect the Packers to shop smart and go after someone to fulfill the left tackle position. What does Campbell bring to the table? Great athleticism for one thing. A killer combine and I can wave goodbye to this dream. Also, he played much of the year with turf toe. His run game skills are imperfect, but he definitely can fit in a passing league. Groovy.
2) Dominique Franks CB-Oklahoma
This is the sort of guy who would learn how he can attain full Al Harris from being tutored by Al Harris. He's a physical press corner who was a shutdown corner in the Big 12 South. He's fundamentally sound, but he has the hands that turn interceptions to deflections. But for a second round pick? Great value.
3) Antonio Coleman DE-Auburn
We had hoped that Aaron Kampman could convert to a 3-4 Linebacker. It didn't work. Brad Jones basically was a better fit last season on little more than raw talent. It's honestly unknown how Coleman would do in pass coverage, but he's spent three seasons living in SEC backfields. He's got a high motor and a sweet array of pass rush moves. Put him opposite of Clay Matthews. I am literally smiling as I type that.
4) Larry Asante SS-Nebraska
With both safeties as Free Agents, why not take a flyer on a guy who compares favorably to Louis Delmas? He is a killer in the back half of the secondary. Killshots for anybody who would dare cross his path. And in run support? This strong safety is like an extra linebacker. He's not a playmaker vis a vis picks and deflections. But he won't be embarrassed.
5) James Starks RB-Buffalo
If James Starks had a good 2009, he would have been in contention to be a second round pick. Instead? The draft question is wholly combine dependent after he injured his shoulder and missed the season. It's a shame really, because this kid is gifted. High production, above average speed and good strength. He can pass catch as well. (2nd in catches for the Bulls as a Freshman, 300 yards in receptions as a Soph).
6) Ryan Perriloux QB-Jacksonville State
Okay, remember this is what I'd like from the Packers. And I'd like a developmental quarterback. Granted, like when I said I kind of wanted Bernard Scott last year, the ex-LSU QB is odds on going to be a Bengal. But no quarterback has the Physical gifts of Perriloux. I'd be fine with Dan LeFevour or Tim Hiller or some random dude. But I'd take a home run swing here.
7) John Estes C-Hawaii
The Packers have a nice guard prospect in T.J. Lang and beyond that? Not much. John Estes isn't super-powerful but he's with good technique and a great motor. He won't quit on a run play by any stretch. But he can lose his leverage if he has to maintain his fit. So yeah.
Now a scenario where Ted Thompson turns the third pick into a 4 and two 6's isn't out of the realm of possibility. And last year he shocked the world when he traded up for Clay Matthews. So I guess what I'm trying to say is the total number of picks will in no way be seven.
Monday, May 25, 2009
NBA Draft Dumpster Diving: Small Forwards
Now we have seen certain things about this draft class. Ricky Rubio may be sliding down the list. There is no center worth drafting. None. Charlie Villanueva may be the guy who the Bucks keep over Sessions. Blake Griffin’s first season needs to be written by Bret Easton Ellis.
But there are bargains and people that will go undrafted on this list that play the three that are going to make a good impact in the pros. It’s not as superstar rich as the one, but then again? You’ll be in good hands if you take one of these players.
Honorable Mention: Josh Carter (Texas A&M), Micah Downs (Gonzaga), Wes Matthews (Marquette)
6. Lee Cummard BYU
6′7″ 185
His only question is how long can his hustle overcome his lack of athleticism? Because even though he wore down toward the end of his senior season? He has a salad bar of skills. A great shot, great court vision, good handles, and a great passer. He also generates a good number of rebounds and blocks for a swingman.
5. Tasmin Mitchell LSU
6′7″ 235
I would not be surprised if he decides to go back to school, but he just might be ready now. He’s got a scrappiness that can change the culture of a defense. He has the rebounding skills and power that can have him play the four. And he is fast enough to play out on the wing. He goes right well and has a good mid-range game. He finds seams in zones. He will be a solid starter.
4. Milenko Tepic KK Partizan
6′8″ 198
His strength comes from his point forward ability. He distributes very well. He’s fundamentally sound and has good court vision. He has good shot selection and his jumper is improving. He doesn’t have great man-to-man defense skills, but a tall guy that runs the floor brings glory.
3. Tyler Smith Tennessee
6′7″ 210
His shot is shaky. He does lack some awareness. And he’s a little bit of a tweener. But athletic versatility is an eminently draftable quality, and that’s not all Smith brings to the table. His transition game is strong. He’s an active defender. And he’s great at starting the break with an outlet pass. If he brings his handles? He’ll be a strong starter.
2. Jonas Jerebeko Angelico Biella
6′9″ 210
Forget the offense. Forget the fact that he vibes tweener. He’s a lockdown stopper. He brings blocks, boards, steals, and an ability to stay with the majority of athletes. You draft him? You’re getting two things. Defense, and a ready made nickname. Jonas Jerebeko IS the Swedish Chef.
1. Omri Casspi Maccabi Tel Aviv
6′9″ 215
Here’s a theory. Considering how the Magic have seemed to shock the world, a player like Casspi may find himself getting into round one. He has decent handles and a range that does extend out beyond the arc. But his strength? It’s his athleticism. He uses both his height and athleticism to lock down on defense. There are some questions here, but he’s a man with experience on one of the great Euro teams and he still has upside. He will not fall beyond the 38th pick. And if he gets there? San Antonio wins the draft.
So, you know what? I’ll look at the power forwards. And after that? You’ll just have to read my blog or follow my twitter.
But there are bargains and people that will go undrafted on this list that play the three that are going to make a good impact in the pros. It’s not as superstar rich as the one, but then again? You’ll be in good hands if you take one of these players.
Honorable Mention: Josh Carter (Texas A&M), Micah Downs (Gonzaga), Wes Matthews (Marquette)
6. Lee Cummard BYU
6′7″ 185
His only question is how long can his hustle overcome his lack of athleticism? Because even though he wore down toward the end of his senior season? He has a salad bar of skills. A great shot, great court vision, good handles, and a great passer. He also generates a good number of rebounds and blocks for a swingman.
5. Tasmin Mitchell LSU
6′7″ 235
I would not be surprised if he decides to go back to school, but he just might be ready now. He’s got a scrappiness that can change the culture of a defense. He has the rebounding skills and power that can have him play the four. And he is fast enough to play out on the wing. He goes right well and has a good mid-range game. He finds seams in zones. He will be a solid starter.
4. Milenko Tepic KK Partizan
6′8″ 198
His strength comes from his point forward ability. He distributes very well. He’s fundamentally sound and has good court vision. He has good shot selection and his jumper is improving. He doesn’t have great man-to-man defense skills, but a tall guy that runs the floor brings glory.
3. Tyler Smith Tennessee
6′7″ 210
His shot is shaky. He does lack some awareness. And he’s a little bit of a tweener. But athletic versatility is an eminently draftable quality, and that’s not all Smith brings to the table. His transition game is strong. He’s an active defender. And he’s great at starting the break with an outlet pass. If he brings his handles? He’ll be a strong starter.
2. Jonas Jerebeko Angelico Biella
6′9″ 210
Forget the offense. Forget the fact that he vibes tweener. He’s a lockdown stopper. He brings blocks, boards, steals, and an ability to stay with the majority of athletes. You draft him? You’re getting two things. Defense, and a ready made nickname. Jonas Jerebeko IS the Swedish Chef.
1. Omri Casspi Maccabi Tel Aviv
6′9″ 215
Here’s a theory. Considering how the Magic have seemed to shock the world, a player like Casspi may find himself getting into round one. He has decent handles and a range that does extend out beyond the arc. But his strength? It’s his athleticism. He uses both his height and athleticism to lock down on defense. There are some questions here, but he’s a man with experience on one of the great Euro teams and he still has upside. He will not fall beyond the 38th pick. And if he gets there? San Antonio wins the draft.
So, you know what? I’ll look at the power forwards. And after that? You’ll just have to read my blog or follow my twitter.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Matt Stafford as a Detroit Lion
I still think it's not going to work out. I do think they're drafting a guy to redshirt, which is defintitely going to help matters. But I'm not going to say that it's a guaranteed success. In fact? The odds are greater that he's going to be a bust.
Why? Because what if Daunte Culpepper was a huge success? It could happen. He has his old offensive coordinator when he was at his best, I mean Scott Linehan may have been ridiculous as a coach, but he can coordinate. And he does have Calvin Johnson. Say they get to 6-10? Say Culpepper goes off for 4000/35/10? You have a city/state that was 80-20 against the selection of Stafford. What happens when he gets forced out.
You have an organization that has entirely too many needs. You have an organization that needs to change its culture. Jason Smith can change the culture. Aaron Curry sure as heck can change the culture. Matt Stafford is just going to be the frontman for an empire of dirt.
Why? Because what if Daunte Culpepper was a huge success? It could happen. He has his old offensive coordinator when he was at his best, I mean Scott Linehan may have been ridiculous as a coach, but he can coordinate. And he does have Calvin Johnson. Say they get to 6-10? Say Culpepper goes off for 4000/35/10? You have a city/state that was 80-20 against the selection of Stafford. What happens when he gets forced out.
You have an organization that has entirely too many needs. You have an organization that needs to change its culture. Jason Smith can change the culture. Aaron Curry sure as heck can change the culture. Matt Stafford is just going to be the frontman for an empire of dirt.
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Can the Brewers thread the needle?
Yes. The Brewers can thread the needle. On paper? They don't look as good as the Cardinals or the Cubs. But as Brian Moynahan kept talking me down last September, I realized something.
I need to have faith. And there are three reasons where your Milwaukee Brewers may not have had the window slam in their faces. I will go from likeliest to least likely.
1) The Bullpen will be better.
It's a reasonable expectation. At the very least? We know what we're getting straight away. Hoffman will be a decent closer as he runs for 600 saves. Carlos Villanueva has the 8th inning on lockdown. Seth McClung grew by leaps and bounds last year. Todd Coffey is intriguing. And the Brewers could find a LOOGY.
And no Eric Gagne! That's just good karma. Don't trust what Al's Ramblings says, he believes that cold weather is a reason why Global Warming doesn't exist. And Eric Gagne is gone.
2) The offense touches its upside.
62.5% of the starting line-up is still under 27. And you know what this means? A combined consolidation season from Braun, Fielder, Hardy, Hart, and Weeks in 2008 could mean something more in '09. Baseball Prospectus noted that they were only worth two more wins in 2008 than 2007.
If Hart or Weeks explodes with the cream of an 8th grade boy on offense, or if Braun and Fielder haven't touched the sky of their talent? What we have here is a team that does not need the same margin of error from their pitching staff.
3) A B compared to 2008 from the starters.
If the offesnive youth energy comes upwards, then the Sabathia-Sheets diad will not be near as missed. I know Gallardo can bring it. If he stays healthy, he can be able to give a good account of what Ben Sheets had. So what does that leave for the Brewers?
Chris Capuano as CC Sabathia, Don't laugh.
...Now you're hurting my feelings.
Okay, let's look at his previous base of skills using the BP-approved level of VORP.
2005: 35.5
2006: 41.1
Obviously, it's not the level of Sabathia. But you know what? When Sabathia was a Brewer? His VORP was 51.9. If Capuano can come back to his 2006 levels? It will be just like adding a starter for the stretch drive.
If not? C'est la vie for small windows.
I need to have faith. And there are three reasons where your Milwaukee Brewers may not have had the window slam in their faces. I will go from likeliest to least likely.
1) The Bullpen will be better.
It's a reasonable expectation. At the very least? We know what we're getting straight away. Hoffman will be a decent closer as he runs for 600 saves. Carlos Villanueva has the 8th inning on lockdown. Seth McClung grew by leaps and bounds last year. Todd Coffey is intriguing. And the Brewers could find a LOOGY.
And no Eric Gagne! That's just good karma. Don't trust what Al's Ramblings says, he believes that cold weather is a reason why Global Warming doesn't exist. And Eric Gagne is gone.
2) The offense touches its upside.
62.5% of the starting line-up is still under 27. And you know what this means? A combined consolidation season from Braun, Fielder, Hardy, Hart, and Weeks in 2008 could mean something more in '09. Baseball Prospectus noted that they were only worth two more wins in 2008 than 2007.
If Hart or Weeks explodes with the cream of an 8th grade boy on offense, or if Braun and Fielder haven't touched the sky of their talent? What we have here is a team that does not need the same margin of error from their pitching staff.
3) A B compared to 2008 from the starters.
If the offesnive youth energy comes upwards, then the Sabathia-Sheets diad will not be near as missed. I know Gallardo can bring it. If he stays healthy, he can be able to give a good account of what Ben Sheets had. So what does that leave for the Brewers?
Chris Capuano as CC Sabathia, Don't laugh.
...Now you're hurting my feelings.
Okay, let's look at his previous base of skills using the BP-approved level of VORP.
2005: 35.5
2006: 41.1
Obviously, it's not the level of Sabathia. But you know what? When Sabathia was a Brewer? His VORP was 51.9. If Capuano can come back to his 2006 levels? It will be just like adding a starter for the stretch drive.
If not? C'est la vie for small windows.
Friday, March 13, 2009
Strange Day in Bubbletown.
Now we'll break it down by conference, but some odd things have happened today. And you have to stop and reassess. We know what we know. But let's reassess it here.
ACC: The six locks are the same. (UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, and Boston College). Maryland got to the semifinals. And as such? There are five keys to look at here. Record/RPI/SOS/Top 50 Record/Last 10 games.
Maryland: (20-12) 9-9 49/22 4-7 6-4
You have to think they've done enough. A look at this resume compared to other resumes along the way of the bubble watch? Especially considering they did beat Michigan. Fucking Michigan.
Big East: If your RPI is below Penn State's, you've got no chance of an at-large. Thus no to Providence. Seven bids. (Louisville, UConn, Pitt, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, and West Virginia).
Big 10: Penn State's done enough. Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State and Minnesota join them. Michigan and Wisconsin?
Michigan: (19-13) 10-10 42/11 6-11 5-5
I'll admit it. It's one that looks slightly better than my team. Slightly...
Wisconsin: (18-12) 10-9 43/13 4-10 7-3
...when you eliminate from consideration the fact that Michigan lost to the Badgers twice.
Big 12: It's a match-up of contrasting styles when Baylor takes on Missouri. Baylor is guard-oriented and built to score. Missouri is frontcourt oriented and built to press. Baylor needs to take the final step to make the NCAA's. But Mizzou is a bad match-up for the Bears. Otherwise? The Big 12 gets six. Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas A&M
Pac-10: As Arizona looks dead, the left for dead USC is suddenly in. The win over UCLA is their 20th win. 11th conference win. 4th win versus a team in the RPI top 50. They go back to the tournament after being dead not even a week ago.
SEC: FUBAR. If you're considering Florida on the outside looking in? South Carolina's resume is just as bad.
Florida: (23-10) 10-8 53/84 1-5 4-6
South Carolina: 21-9 (11-7) 59/93 0-4 5-5
Mississippi State's RPI is still in Providence levels, so you can't really consider them. But what about Auburn? It's a resume that could use another win, but there's one number I want you to pay attention to.
Auburn: 21-10 (11-6) 58/67 2-3 9-1
Yeah, Jeff Lebo's team is coming together. And in a world with similar resumes, the selection committee will hang on to any positive that they can think of. This means that Auburn will be the SEC's third team.
Mountain West: Three berths. San Diego State got to the finals. No excuse for them not to be with BYU and Utah. New Mexico is out because they cross into the 70's with the RPI.
Atlantic 10: With the scrappy Duquesne Dukes making the finals versus Temple? An at-large berth has been stolen (because it was supposed to be Xavier and Dayton). For a comparison point? We'll discuss Temple as an at-large.
Temple: 21-11 (13-5) 33/42 2-5 8-2
If they lose? Tennessee winning out is a big deal for their hopes. Because some mid-major has to win the shaft. And the fighting Bill Cosby's may have to dig it.
C-USA: Memphis beats Tulsa and we can all relax.
Missouri Valley: For Creighton's benefit...
Creighton: 26-7 (15-5) 41/111 2-2 9-1
I know last year is last year. But this team got its ass kicked in the semis by Illinois State. Nobody's considering them an NCAA team. I mean, last year the selection committee torched the selfsame Redbirds for their choke job. But is Creighton safer because they got burned in the Semis? Who watches the ESPNU?
Horizon: Cleveland State and Butler. That's all you need to know.
WAC: Utah State needs to win out. They have not played much and losing to Nevada is bad luck and with this bubble, a malicious wounding.
So with the 34 at large berths and 31 conference champs. (Shows my readership that I never got called on a previous fuckup.) We essentially have 62 teams locked in. So? How do I delineate who's in with who's out?
I honestly don't know. Utah State and Creighton will have strong computer numbers. What if Duqusene and Baylor win? I'm doing this as strict gut work.
Last 4 In
Auburn
USC
Maryland
Wisconsin
First 4 Out
Michigan
Florida
Creighton
New Mexico
Number 65 will all come down to a 10 point win in Ann Arbor on Janurary 2nd. God love college hoops.
ACC: The six locks are the same. (UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, and Boston College). Maryland got to the semifinals. And as such? There are five keys to look at here. Record/RPI/SOS/Top 50 Record/Last 10 games.
Maryland: (20-12) 9-9 49/22 4-7 6-4
You have to think they've done enough. A look at this resume compared to other resumes along the way of the bubble watch? Especially considering they did beat Michigan. Fucking Michigan.
Big East: If your RPI is below Penn State's, you've got no chance of an at-large. Thus no to Providence. Seven bids. (Louisville, UConn, Pitt, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, and West Virginia).
Big 10: Penn State's done enough. Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State and Minnesota join them. Michigan and Wisconsin?
Michigan: (19-13) 10-10 42/11 6-11 5-5
I'll admit it. It's one that looks slightly better than my team. Slightly...
Wisconsin: (18-12) 10-9 43/13 4-10 7-3
...when you eliminate from consideration the fact that Michigan lost to the Badgers twice.
Big 12: It's a match-up of contrasting styles when Baylor takes on Missouri. Baylor is guard-oriented and built to score. Missouri is frontcourt oriented and built to press. Baylor needs to take the final step to make the NCAA's. But Mizzou is a bad match-up for the Bears. Otherwise? The Big 12 gets six. Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas A&M
Pac-10: As Arizona looks dead, the left for dead USC is suddenly in. The win over UCLA is their 20th win. 11th conference win. 4th win versus a team in the RPI top 50. They go back to the tournament after being dead not even a week ago.
SEC: FUBAR. If you're considering Florida on the outside looking in? South Carolina's resume is just as bad.
Florida: (23-10) 10-8 53/84 1-5 4-6
South Carolina: 21-9 (11-7) 59/93 0-4 5-5
Mississippi State's RPI is still in Providence levels, so you can't really consider them. But what about Auburn? It's a resume that could use another win, but there's one number I want you to pay attention to.
Auburn: 21-10 (11-6) 58/67 2-3 9-1
Yeah, Jeff Lebo's team is coming together. And in a world with similar resumes, the selection committee will hang on to any positive that they can think of. This means that Auburn will be the SEC's third team.
Mountain West: Three berths. San Diego State got to the finals. No excuse for them not to be with BYU and Utah. New Mexico is out because they cross into the 70's with the RPI.
Atlantic 10: With the scrappy Duquesne Dukes making the finals versus Temple? An at-large berth has been stolen (because it was supposed to be Xavier and Dayton). For a comparison point? We'll discuss Temple as an at-large.
Temple: 21-11 (13-5) 33/42 2-5 8-2
If they lose? Tennessee winning out is a big deal for their hopes. Because some mid-major has to win the shaft. And the fighting Bill Cosby's may have to dig it.
C-USA: Memphis beats Tulsa and we can all relax.
Missouri Valley: For Creighton's benefit...
Creighton: 26-7 (15-5) 41/111 2-2 9-1
I know last year is last year. But this team got its ass kicked in the semis by Illinois State. Nobody's considering them an NCAA team. I mean, last year the selection committee torched the selfsame Redbirds for their choke job. But is Creighton safer because they got burned in the Semis? Who watches the ESPNU?
Horizon: Cleveland State and Butler. That's all you need to know.
WAC: Utah State needs to win out. They have not played much and losing to Nevada is bad luck and with this bubble, a malicious wounding.
So with the 34 at large berths and 31 conference champs. (Shows my readership that I never got called on a previous fuckup.) We essentially have 62 teams locked in. So? How do I delineate who's in with who's out?
I honestly don't know. Utah State and Creighton will have strong computer numbers. What if Duqusene and Baylor win? I'm doing this as strict gut work.
Last 4 In
Auburn
USC
Maryland
Wisconsin
First 4 Out
Michigan
Florida
Creighton
New Mexico
Number 65 will all come down to a 10 point win in Ann Arbor on Janurary 2nd. God love college hoops.
The Duality of H and Y. The Day 1 Draft Breakdown Part The Third
Two smart people have said things that will make this position very interesting to watch come April. One, the fact that the NFL is a copycat league. If you notice one thing? Dustin Keller types are now in vogue. Pass catching is greater than than blocking.
H is greater than Y. But is it really a good thing? Brandon Pettigrew would have you believe otherwise. Mike Lombardi would have you believe otherwise. But you're not here for them? You're there for me.
1. Shawn Nelson, Southern Miss
(6'5" 242, 4.56)
What you have here is the man voted most likely to be compared to Dustin Keller. He's a man with a timed combine speed of 4.56, he's a man with excellent hands. Quite frankly? He is going to be the first tight end taken. And unlike Keller, he can block a little too.
His weaknesses are minimal. He could use some polish on his route-running, and his blocking is mostly of the wall nature. But that being said? The former will get better with experience. And the latter? He does have a frame that can fill out.
Now, he's not going to be a ready-made member of a stud stable in the passing game. But he can be the short route guy and the dude who can run the seams like a stud. There's a chance that he can grow into something great. But he can be a pass-catching weapon straight away.
2. Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State
(6'6" 260 4.85)
Here's a man who reminds me so much of Bubba Franks it's not even funny. His kung-fu strength is in his power game. His pass-catching game is based on his ability to box out and get the short yardage safety vale goal line stuff. But his main strength? His ability to be a smaller offensive lineman.
But in a world of certain digitality? His game is sort of analog. He will not threaten any sort of the seam. But you know what else? He really can't break a tackle either. But if you can throw it to him? He will get it.
You may not be happy if your team drafts Brandon Pettigrew. But you shouldn't be up in arms. He's an excellent tight end, and he will be able to give his team a solid 7-8 year career
3. Jared Cook, South Carolina
(6'5" 242 4.50)
If Pettigrew is the next Bubba Franks? Then there's a definite possibility that Cook is the next Vernon Davis. He is an overgrown wide receiver whose strength is in his athleticism. His 40-time is faster than Nelson's. He put up one more rep on the bench press than Pettigrew. And he does have the hands to take advantage of his 41" vertical.
But as Mike Singletary wanted to take a helmet upside Davis' head? Someone just might want to do the same to Cook. He is a very bad blocker. And he also has seen the bench for dogging it against Clemson in 2008. And for a man that fast? He has no improvisational skill. But that vision thing is something that can be trained.
Everybody in the NFL wants a player that they can dream on. Someone with the athleticism of an all-pro who just needs a little bit of training. You hit the pick, and it's just like hitting the lottery. But here's the deal. It's just like hitting a two-outer in hold 'em. You're happy it happened, but 95% of the time it doesn't.
4. James Casey, Rice
(6'4" 246 4.71)
James Casey's best comparison is to a swiss army knife. You have someone who has played seven positions in one game. Someone who has a professional baseball worthy throwing arm. And he actually had a season on the Rice Track team. But as a tight end?
He was someone who made Jarrett Dillard that much better as the Number 2 option with Rice. Because as a receiver, he has great hands, and out of all the tight ends? His is the best at being elusive in terms of making you miss. And as the Wildcat stays in vogue? James Casey has that much more that he can bring to the table.
That being said? He is a 24 year old with two years of college experience. It does say something for his upside, but he is switching offensive schemes as well as needs to learn how to block in a more professional fashion.
But if you're a patient man? Dallas Clark upside resides here.
5. Chase Coffman, Missouri
(6'6" 252 4.83e)
His hands are the best in the draft. He has an ability to high angle and focus. He is a great route runner and he has an ability to get separation and find seams in the zone to get open. He's a hard worker and can find a way to play through pain.
But the reason why he's down the list? Simple. He's tall, but he's not football strong. He is not currently functional in blocking aspects of the game. And as I write this? He doesn't have a 40 time listed.
Now, Coffman may not have the upside of a James Casey or a Jared Cook. But you know what? He has great bloodlines and good football skills. His game reminds me of another alliterative tight end.
Protip: Chase Coffman cannot wear the hotpants.
And let's be honest. There is still plenty of value in Day 2. Cornelius Ingram, Travis Beckum. In fact?
I just might make a tight end sleeper post.
H is greater than Y. But is it really a good thing? Brandon Pettigrew would have you believe otherwise. Mike Lombardi would have you believe otherwise. But you're not here for them? You're there for me.
1. Shawn Nelson, Southern Miss
(6'5" 242, 4.56)
What you have here is the man voted most likely to be compared to Dustin Keller. He's a man with a timed combine speed of 4.56, he's a man with excellent hands. Quite frankly? He is going to be the first tight end taken. And unlike Keller, he can block a little too.
His weaknesses are minimal. He could use some polish on his route-running, and his blocking is mostly of the wall nature. But that being said? The former will get better with experience. And the latter? He does have a frame that can fill out.
Now, he's not going to be a ready-made member of a stud stable in the passing game. But he can be the short route guy and the dude who can run the seams like a stud. There's a chance that he can grow into something great. But he can be a pass-catching weapon straight away.
2. Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State
(6'6" 260 4.85)
Here's a man who reminds me so much of Bubba Franks it's not even funny. His kung-fu strength is in his power game. His pass-catching game is based on his ability to box out and get the short yardage safety vale goal line stuff. But his main strength? His ability to be a smaller offensive lineman.
But in a world of certain digitality? His game is sort of analog. He will not threaten any sort of the seam. But you know what else? He really can't break a tackle either. But if you can throw it to him? He will get it.
You may not be happy if your team drafts Brandon Pettigrew. But you shouldn't be up in arms. He's an excellent tight end, and he will be able to give his team a solid 7-8 year career
3. Jared Cook, South Carolina
(6'5" 242 4.50)
If Pettigrew is the next Bubba Franks? Then there's a definite possibility that Cook is the next Vernon Davis. He is an overgrown wide receiver whose strength is in his athleticism. His 40-time is faster than Nelson's. He put up one more rep on the bench press than Pettigrew. And he does have the hands to take advantage of his 41" vertical.
But as Mike Singletary wanted to take a helmet upside Davis' head? Someone just might want to do the same to Cook. He is a very bad blocker. And he also has seen the bench for dogging it against Clemson in 2008. And for a man that fast? He has no improvisational skill. But that vision thing is something that can be trained.
Everybody in the NFL wants a player that they can dream on. Someone with the athleticism of an all-pro who just needs a little bit of training. You hit the pick, and it's just like hitting the lottery. But here's the deal. It's just like hitting a two-outer in hold 'em. You're happy it happened, but 95% of the time it doesn't.
4. James Casey, Rice
(6'4" 246 4.71)
James Casey's best comparison is to a swiss army knife. You have someone who has played seven positions in one game. Someone who has a professional baseball worthy throwing arm. And he actually had a season on the Rice Track team. But as a tight end?
He was someone who made Jarrett Dillard that much better as the Number 2 option with Rice. Because as a receiver, he has great hands, and out of all the tight ends? His is the best at being elusive in terms of making you miss. And as the Wildcat stays in vogue? James Casey has that much more that he can bring to the table.
That being said? He is a 24 year old with two years of college experience. It does say something for his upside, but he is switching offensive schemes as well as needs to learn how to block in a more professional fashion.
But if you're a patient man? Dallas Clark upside resides here.
5. Chase Coffman, Missouri
(6'6" 252 4.83e)
His hands are the best in the draft. He has an ability to high angle and focus. He is a great route runner and he has an ability to get separation and find seams in the zone to get open. He's a hard worker and can find a way to play through pain.
But the reason why he's down the list? Simple. He's tall, but he's not football strong. He is not currently functional in blocking aspects of the game. And as I write this? He doesn't have a 40 time listed.
Now, Coffman may not have the upside of a James Casey or a Jared Cook. But you know what? He has great bloodlines and good football skills. His game reminds me of another alliterative tight end.
Protip: Chase Coffman cannot wear the hotpants.
And let's be honest. There is still plenty of value in Day 2. Cornelius Ingram, Travis Beckum. In fact?
I just might make a tight end sleeper post.
Monday, March 9, 2009
Draft Day 1 Breakdown 2...
It's kind of an interesting thing to break down safeties. You have to match-up the value of the rangy centerfielder free safety and the burly tiny would be linebacker intimidator strong safety. How do you value them? Who would I rather have?
Read on and find out.
1. Louis Delmas (FS-Western Michigan)
5'11" 202 4.53
There is no potential first round safety this year. Delmas is a slightly undersized free safety who plays downhill and provides excellent run support. He's violent, but not one of those guys who overruns everything. Not to say he won't on occasion? But with great ballhawk skills and great run support? There's a lot to like here.
Why are there worries? He is undersized. Undersized hitters get dinged up. He also isn't stiff, but his pass-coverage instincts are imperfect. And with a mediocre timed speed? It is something that he will need to work on.
But that being said? As a productive free safety/eighth man in the box? He is an excellent player. If you need safety help, he can be a pretty solid instant starter, and you're waiting until Round 2 to get him. He won't get past the Texans round two.
2. William Moore (SS-Missouri)
6'1" 221 4.53
Yes, physically and with the upside? You can trust in William Moore. But he has been a little bit oversized for a safety. He played at 230 last year. It meant fail for his Senior year. He doesn't have the technique to stay with speed receivers. And his instincts are a tad subpar.
But you know what? He's a great cover two safety. You let him roam? And he'll be an intimidator. Great athleticism. Outstanding when he's close enough to close, and if your quarterback starts birddogging? He will make you pay. And he will also killshot your receiver.
William Moore is a tailor-made Cover 2 safety. If your team runs the cover 2? You're golden. If not. Be patient with him. The lightbulb needs to turn on.
3. Patrick Chung (SS-Oregon)
5'11" 212 4.54
He is the safety with nigh impeccable instincts when it comes to in the box play. His angles are imperfect, but that's something that can be worked on. He's an experienced fearless run stuffer who can handle themselves with a good tight end. If by some fluke he doesn't make a roster? You have an instant gunner.
The problem? His athleticism. His timed speed is decent. But if you need him as a last line of defense? His coverage skills need improvment. Also, he's a good physical tackler, but he's not an intimidator.
What you get with Patrick Chung is a ready-made inside the box safety. He does have decent athleticism, but he is out of position often as a back half safety. He can step right in and succeed if you use him right. You just have to understand what he's built for.
4. Sherrod Martin (FS-Troy)
6'1" 198 4.52
Here's your fast-riser into Day 1 potentiality. A great Senior Bowl. A solid combine. He may actually be a cornerback in the pros, but let's cross that road when it comes.
What does Sherrod bring to the table? Like most, a good level of athleticism and a willingness to stick his head in there. He is an excellent ceterfielder as well as a safety who gets the balls. (Heh heh heh.) He has good upside. And the tools? They make the scouts drool.
The thing is? He may not have the build to stay as a safety. He's had shoulder problems in the past, and he needs to get stronger if he wants to stay around as a safety, because as a cornerback, he is strictly developmental. But with those tools? Be it at safety or corner, someone will get in the Sherrod Martin business.
5. Chip Vaughn (SS-Wake Forest)
6'1" 221 4.51
He moved from receiver when he got to Wake Forest, and that's not a bad thing when you look at what he's done. He got better on every play in every game. And he has good instincts as well considering his relative inexperience. He has a solid triangle ratio and he will use it for gunning as well as covering.
Inexperience is still a problem. With zone blocking schemes, he can get eaten alive on the cutback. He doesn't have great lateral speed. And for an ex-receiver? His hands are average at best.
This is a flinstone chewable sleeper. He's still growing. If you're patient, and are willing to let him grow with the special teams? You will have awesome in 2012.
Whereas I am awesome now.
Later!
Read on and find out.
1. Louis Delmas (FS-Western Michigan)
5'11" 202 4.53
There is no potential first round safety this year. Delmas is a slightly undersized free safety who plays downhill and provides excellent run support. He's violent, but not one of those guys who overruns everything. Not to say he won't on occasion? But with great ballhawk skills and great run support? There's a lot to like here.
Why are there worries? He is undersized. Undersized hitters get dinged up. He also isn't stiff, but his pass-coverage instincts are imperfect. And with a mediocre timed speed? It is something that he will need to work on.
But that being said? As a productive free safety/eighth man in the box? He is an excellent player. If you need safety help, he can be a pretty solid instant starter, and you're waiting until Round 2 to get him. He won't get past the Texans round two.
2. William Moore (SS-Missouri)
6'1" 221 4.53
Yes, physically and with the upside? You can trust in William Moore. But he has been a little bit oversized for a safety. He played at 230 last year. It meant fail for his Senior year. He doesn't have the technique to stay with speed receivers. And his instincts are a tad subpar.
But you know what? He's a great cover two safety. You let him roam? And he'll be an intimidator. Great athleticism. Outstanding when he's close enough to close, and if your quarterback starts birddogging? He will make you pay. And he will also killshot your receiver.
William Moore is a tailor-made Cover 2 safety. If your team runs the cover 2? You're golden. If not. Be patient with him. The lightbulb needs to turn on.
3. Patrick Chung (SS-Oregon)
5'11" 212 4.54
He is the safety with nigh impeccable instincts when it comes to in the box play. His angles are imperfect, but that's something that can be worked on. He's an experienced fearless run stuffer who can handle themselves with a good tight end. If by some fluke he doesn't make a roster? You have an instant gunner.
The problem? His athleticism. His timed speed is decent. But if you need him as a last line of defense? His coverage skills need improvment. Also, he's a good physical tackler, but he's not an intimidator.
What you get with Patrick Chung is a ready-made inside the box safety. He does have decent athleticism, but he is out of position often as a back half safety. He can step right in and succeed if you use him right. You just have to understand what he's built for.
4. Sherrod Martin (FS-Troy)
6'1" 198 4.52
Here's your fast-riser into Day 1 potentiality. A great Senior Bowl. A solid combine. He may actually be a cornerback in the pros, but let's cross that road when it comes.
What does Sherrod bring to the table? Like most, a good level of athleticism and a willingness to stick his head in there. He is an excellent ceterfielder as well as a safety who gets the balls. (Heh heh heh.) He has good upside. And the tools? They make the scouts drool.
The thing is? He may not have the build to stay as a safety. He's had shoulder problems in the past, and he needs to get stronger if he wants to stay around as a safety, because as a cornerback, he is strictly developmental. But with those tools? Be it at safety or corner, someone will get in the Sherrod Martin business.
5. Chip Vaughn (SS-Wake Forest)
6'1" 221 4.51
He moved from receiver when he got to Wake Forest, and that's not a bad thing when you look at what he's done. He got better on every play in every game. And he has good instincts as well considering his relative inexperience. He has a solid triangle ratio and he will use it for gunning as well as covering.
Inexperience is still a problem. With zone blocking schemes, he can get eaten alive on the cutback. He doesn't have great lateral speed. And for an ex-receiver? His hands are average at best.
This is a flinstone chewable sleeper. He's still growing. If you're patient, and are willing to let him grow with the special teams? You will have awesome in 2012.
Whereas I am awesome now.
Later!
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Since Everybody Liked Last Weeks Bubble Top 25?
I figured I would use my brainmeats and go again. After all, if it doesn't involve me trying to be funny? I can do it twice in a row. Because my funny is accidental. But my brainmeats just keep bringing it.
Anyway, the Bubble is still tightening as the inexorable march of time gets toward Selection Sunday. And while some teams have lost their projected safeline designation, like San Diego State, we have teams with new membership. They're mostly from Florida.
Maybe all from Florida.
Anyway...here's the safe teams.
ACC
UNC
Duke
Clemson
Wake Forest
Florida State
Big East
Pittsburgh
UConn
Villanova
Louisville
Marquette
Pac-10
Washington
Arizona State
UCLA
California
Big 10
Illinois
Michigan State
Purdue
Big 12
Oklahoma
Kansas
Missouri
SEC
LSU
Florida
Mountain West
Utah
BYU
Atlantic 10
Xavier
(Note: Odds are that the A-10 is going to get multiple teams, so the Atlantic 10 is going to get the one team safeline that Conference USA is not going to get.)
Safe Likely Conference Champions
Butler
Creighton
Gonzaga
Memphis
Siena
Utah State
And this week we can add a new designation. Just needs one more win to be in.
One More Win
Boston College: (The computer numbers are decent to marginal. If they take down Florida State at home, it's not just clinched. It's superclinched. But they will likely go 21-10 (9-7). At North Carolina State and Georgia Tech at home means that will likely happen.)
Dayton: (Winning one of their next three (@ URI, Temple, @ Xavier) makes them safe. They probably already are, but I have a bad feeling about them. Just a feeling.)
I would also put the winner of the South Carolina-Kentucky game as a team that's in the tournament. But they still both fall on the safeline. So there's that.
So how many bubble teams does that leave us? 13. So let's start the rankings? Remember...future schedules count.
1. West Virginia
2. Syracuse
All they need to do is win two games and that is a task of simplicity for both. The computer numbers can fade it if they only beat DePaul, Rutgers, or South Florida. By this time next week, their cards should be punched.
3. Texas (Blake Griffin's concussion aside, beating Oklahoma is beating Oklahoma. This means they are among the top teams vs. the RPI Top 50 who reside firmly on the safeline. Texas Tech and Baylor at home will get them to 20 wins and over .500 in the Big 12.)
4. Wisconsin (Put it simply? If they manage a win today at the Breslin Center? They could manage a 9 game winning streak going into the conference tournament. And even if they don't? Their worst case of going 7-3 in their last 10 would tie them for the hottest BCS team going into their tournament.)
5. Kentucky (It is essentially a coin toss game between them and South Carolina on Wednesday, and an RPI of 62 at this point is quite high for a team that I would put on the safeline. But they control the tempo on Wednesday and they get LSU on Saturday. Win the week and the RPI problem is sorted.)
6. Ohio State (They didn't hold serve. Northwestern is doing well for Northwestern, but it's still not a good loss. If they beat Illinois at home today? All is forgiven and they'll still likely have 20 wins in them and a 33/34 RPI/SOS.)
7. San Diego State (They have the best case to be the Mountain West's third team in the tournament. Not to say that their schedule is downy soft by any stretch of the imagination, but they have BYU and UNLV coming to San Diego. Go 3-1 in their final four? They win the 3rd Mountain West bid.)
8. Arizona (Probably need one more good win (@ Arizona State, California, @ Washington) for clinching purposes, but with their tradition, passable computer numbers 43/40, 6 wins vs. the RPI Top 50, and 20 likely wins overall and 10 in the Pac-10? They can take it down by just beating Stanford and Washington State.)
9. Minnesota (Similar resume to Arizona. Both have hit about .500 versus the RPI top 100, both have some high-quality wins that they have banked. Both have an excellent chance of getting to 21 wins overall with a .500 or better conference record. Both have similar computer numbers (40/48). Arizona just played a couple of higher notched teams. All they need to do is just beat Michigan and Northwestern at home.)
10. South Carolina (So the odds of 4-2 just got a bit longer. Their next three (@ Kentucky, @ Vanderbilt, Tennessee)? They are horseraces. Win one and they're fine. Thus they can feel relatively safe.)
11. Tennessee (There is always one team that will get in solely on its strength of schedule. Right now? It looks like the Volunteers. Pomeroy expects 18-12 (9-7). That doesn't matter. Their RPI is 26. That doesn't matter. Their Strength of Sechedule is 2. That's all that matters.)
Here's where you'll find out the deep dark secret of this years NCAA tournament. A lot more teams are going to go to the NIT unhappy then make the NCAA's. Right now there are two bids left. And as I type this, there are seven teams that could make a solid case for it. I do not envy the selection committee this year.
12. Maryland (Their emotional win over North Carolina gives them the best winning percentage of what's left versus the RPI top 25. There are plenty of teams with computer numbers that bring more to the table, but the ACC is the best conference by far, and if they can win at North Carolina State and at Virginia? They would have probably have to beat North Carolina State in the tournament. If they do? That's a ticket punched.)
13. Penn State (The computer numbers are bad, (61/84), but if you look at Conference RPI? You have a likely 5th place team in the second best confrence with 21 likely wins in their back pocket and three versus the top 25 in RPI. At this point, as I type this? That's enough. But if they want to stay here? They better get a 22nd win. (The two likely wins are versus Indiana and Iowa, those crack the RPI downward.)
Here's the current batch of the outside looking in. Again, there are five teams that have strong resumes to get into the tournament even if they would currently be out. I would count New Mexico as a team on the list. The potential fourth MWC bid will either belong to them or UNLV.
14. Oklahoma State (I tossed a coin between the Cowboys and the Nittany Lions for the 65th spot. The Cowboys have much better computer numbers (32/11), but that being said? Their most quality win was against Siena and they need to hold serve just to get to .500 in a marginal big six conference. Next Saturday they play Texas. It's in Oklahoma City. Win there and hold serve? They are in great shape.)
15. Texas A&M (Beat Nebraska in Lincoln on Tuesday, and they likely get to .500 in conference and 22 wins, as well as a chance at clinching a spot int he Big Dance when Missouri comes to town on March 7th. If they merely hold serve? They likely don't get themselves to .500 in the Big 12. And that's kind of problematic especially this year.)
16. Temple (Their key is the road game at Dayton. Win here and they'll likely be 13-3 in the A-10 with 21 wins overall, and their current computer numbers would be strong enough that they could just hold serve in the tournament and get in. But the way this year is going? Maybe not.)
17. Miami (They still have a good chance of winning out. Their computer numbers are going to be better than Maryland's. And if it comes down to it? It's going to be the team that plays North Carolina State that has the better shot of culling the ACC's seventh tournament berth.)
18. USC (They needed to beat Washington. With this sort of a morass in terms of the edge of the bubble? They need to run the table to stay out of the NIT graveyard. Cal is their last shot at a win you could consider good. And heaven help them if they lose to Stanford or either Oregon team. 19 wins will not be good enough here.)
19. UNLV (Again, the schedule is something bad. They have strong wins versus the Top 50 (Lousiville, Utah, BYU twice.) But here's the crux of the problem, they have two road games versus Utah (RPI-10) and San Diego State (RPI-48). Their home game is versus Air Force (RPI-287). They need to cull a 22nd win to have a chance of making the dance.)
20. St. Mary's (CA) (Won what they were supposed to. Would probably need to make a run to the finals with a good effort against Gonzaga to make their case perfectly, any loss until then, even a semifinal tournament loss to Portland? And they would be toast. Especially if they make a regualr season boo-boo. Pepperdine and Loyola Marymount have superawful RPI's.)
21. UAB (Decent computer numbers (39/71) that will slowly slide downward with games against Marshall and East Carolina, never mind a potential 9-1 record in their last 10. All they have to do is beat Memphis. Do that and it's a lock. Don't and they cannot get in. No tomorrow's. This Thursday they win or they are dead.)
22. New Mexico (Their problem is wholly depended on their computer numbers. Their RPI is 71. Beating Utah at home will make that rise. Doing it like they did versus San Diego State (75-49), would shoot it up the ladder. But then there's Colorado State, TCU, and Wyoming. Not much quality in those wins, kids.)
23. Georgetown (If they can win out? Then they can usurp Tennessee as the team that gets in solely on the strength of their strength of schedule. They would have to thread the needle of Louisville in DC and at Villanova to do it, but if they can? They will be the Big Easts 8th team.)
24. Michigan (Second best RPI among the currently unlisted. But Georgetown's proverbial needle to thread is a little less difficult than Michigan's. (Purdue, at Wisconsin and at Minnesota are their last three.) They would need to beat Iowa in Iowa City and take two of those three to get into consideration.)
25. Niagra (Beat Siena at home and they have to be in the conversation of at-large berths. That being said? They would need to get themselves a third match-up versus Siena and win out to state their case completely.)
Yes! I made a new list! You're welcome!
Anyway, the Bubble is still tightening as the inexorable march of time gets toward Selection Sunday. And while some teams have lost their projected safeline designation, like San Diego State, we have teams with new membership. They're mostly from Florida.
Maybe all from Florida.
Anyway...here's the safe teams.
ACC
UNC
Duke
Clemson
Wake Forest
Florida State
Big East
Pittsburgh
UConn
Villanova
Louisville
Marquette
Pac-10
Washington
Arizona State
UCLA
California
Big 10
Illinois
Michigan State
Purdue
Big 12
Oklahoma
Kansas
Missouri
SEC
LSU
Florida
Mountain West
Utah
BYU
Atlantic 10
Xavier
(Note: Odds are that the A-10 is going to get multiple teams, so the Atlantic 10 is going to get the one team safeline that Conference USA is not going to get.)
Safe Likely Conference Champions
Butler
Creighton
Gonzaga
Memphis
Siena
Utah State
And this week we can add a new designation. Just needs one more win to be in.
One More Win
Boston College: (The computer numbers are decent to marginal. If they take down Florida State at home, it's not just clinched. It's superclinched. But they will likely go 21-10 (9-7). At North Carolina State and Georgia Tech at home means that will likely happen.)
Dayton: (Winning one of their next three (@ URI, Temple, @ Xavier) makes them safe. They probably already are, but I have a bad feeling about them. Just a feeling.)
I would also put the winner of the South Carolina-Kentucky game as a team that's in the tournament. But they still both fall on the safeline. So there's that.
So how many bubble teams does that leave us? 13. So let's start the rankings? Remember...future schedules count.
1. West Virginia
2. Syracuse
All they need to do is win two games and that is a task of simplicity for both. The computer numbers can fade it if they only beat DePaul, Rutgers, or South Florida. By this time next week, their cards should be punched.
3. Texas (Blake Griffin's concussion aside, beating Oklahoma is beating Oklahoma. This means they are among the top teams vs. the RPI Top 50 who reside firmly on the safeline. Texas Tech and Baylor at home will get them to 20 wins and over .500 in the Big 12.)
4. Wisconsin (Put it simply? If they manage a win today at the Breslin Center? They could manage a 9 game winning streak going into the conference tournament. And even if they don't? Their worst case of going 7-3 in their last 10 would tie them for the hottest BCS team going into their tournament.)
5. Kentucky (It is essentially a coin toss game between them and South Carolina on Wednesday, and an RPI of 62 at this point is quite high for a team that I would put on the safeline. But they control the tempo on Wednesday and they get LSU on Saturday. Win the week and the RPI problem is sorted.)
6. Ohio State (They didn't hold serve. Northwestern is doing well for Northwestern, but it's still not a good loss. If they beat Illinois at home today? All is forgiven and they'll still likely have 20 wins in them and a 33/34 RPI/SOS.)
7. San Diego State (They have the best case to be the Mountain West's third team in the tournament. Not to say that their schedule is downy soft by any stretch of the imagination, but they have BYU and UNLV coming to San Diego. Go 3-1 in their final four? They win the 3rd Mountain West bid.)
8. Arizona (Probably need one more good win (@ Arizona State, California, @ Washington) for clinching purposes, but with their tradition, passable computer numbers 43/40, 6 wins vs. the RPI Top 50, and 20 likely wins overall and 10 in the Pac-10? They can take it down by just beating Stanford and Washington State.)
9. Minnesota (Similar resume to Arizona. Both have hit about .500 versus the RPI top 100, both have some high-quality wins that they have banked. Both have an excellent chance of getting to 21 wins overall with a .500 or better conference record. Both have similar computer numbers (40/48). Arizona just played a couple of higher notched teams. All they need to do is just beat Michigan and Northwestern at home.)
10. South Carolina (So the odds of 4-2 just got a bit longer. Their next three (@ Kentucky, @ Vanderbilt, Tennessee)? They are horseraces. Win one and they're fine. Thus they can feel relatively safe.)
11. Tennessee (There is always one team that will get in solely on its strength of schedule. Right now? It looks like the Volunteers. Pomeroy expects 18-12 (9-7). That doesn't matter. Their RPI is 26. That doesn't matter. Their Strength of Sechedule is 2. That's all that matters.)
Here's where you'll find out the deep dark secret of this years NCAA tournament. A lot more teams are going to go to the NIT unhappy then make the NCAA's. Right now there are two bids left. And as I type this, there are seven teams that could make a solid case for it. I do not envy the selection committee this year.
12. Maryland (Their emotional win over North Carolina gives them the best winning percentage of what's left versus the RPI top 25. There are plenty of teams with computer numbers that bring more to the table, but the ACC is the best conference by far, and if they can win at North Carolina State and at Virginia? They would have probably have to beat North Carolina State in the tournament. If they do? That's a ticket punched.)
13. Penn State (The computer numbers are bad, (61/84), but if you look at Conference RPI? You have a likely 5th place team in the second best confrence with 21 likely wins in their back pocket and three versus the top 25 in RPI. At this point, as I type this? That's enough. But if they want to stay here? They better get a 22nd win. (The two likely wins are versus Indiana and Iowa, those crack the RPI downward.)
Here's the current batch of the outside looking in. Again, there are five teams that have strong resumes to get into the tournament even if they would currently be out. I would count New Mexico as a team on the list. The potential fourth MWC bid will either belong to them or UNLV.
14. Oklahoma State (I tossed a coin between the Cowboys and the Nittany Lions for the 65th spot. The Cowboys have much better computer numbers (32/11), but that being said? Their most quality win was against Siena and they need to hold serve just to get to .500 in a marginal big six conference. Next Saturday they play Texas. It's in Oklahoma City. Win there and hold serve? They are in great shape.)
15. Texas A&M (Beat Nebraska in Lincoln on Tuesday, and they likely get to .500 in conference and 22 wins, as well as a chance at clinching a spot int he Big Dance when Missouri comes to town on March 7th. If they merely hold serve? They likely don't get themselves to .500 in the Big 12. And that's kind of problematic especially this year.)
16. Temple (Their key is the road game at Dayton. Win here and they'll likely be 13-3 in the A-10 with 21 wins overall, and their current computer numbers would be strong enough that they could just hold serve in the tournament and get in. But the way this year is going? Maybe not.)
17. Miami (They still have a good chance of winning out. Their computer numbers are going to be better than Maryland's. And if it comes down to it? It's going to be the team that plays North Carolina State that has the better shot of culling the ACC's seventh tournament berth.)
18. USC (They needed to beat Washington. With this sort of a morass in terms of the edge of the bubble? They need to run the table to stay out of the NIT graveyard. Cal is their last shot at a win you could consider good. And heaven help them if they lose to Stanford or either Oregon team. 19 wins will not be good enough here.)
19. UNLV (Again, the schedule is something bad. They have strong wins versus the Top 50 (Lousiville, Utah, BYU twice.) But here's the crux of the problem, they have two road games versus Utah (RPI-10) and San Diego State (RPI-48). Their home game is versus Air Force (RPI-287). They need to cull a 22nd win to have a chance of making the dance.)
20. St. Mary's (CA) (Won what they were supposed to. Would probably need to make a run to the finals with a good effort against Gonzaga to make their case perfectly, any loss until then, even a semifinal tournament loss to Portland? And they would be toast. Especially if they make a regualr season boo-boo. Pepperdine and Loyola Marymount have superawful RPI's.)
21. UAB (Decent computer numbers (39/71) that will slowly slide downward with games against Marshall and East Carolina, never mind a potential 9-1 record in their last 10. All they have to do is beat Memphis. Do that and it's a lock. Don't and they cannot get in. No tomorrow's. This Thursday they win or they are dead.)
22. New Mexico (Their problem is wholly depended on their computer numbers. Their RPI is 71. Beating Utah at home will make that rise. Doing it like they did versus San Diego State (75-49), would shoot it up the ladder. But then there's Colorado State, TCU, and Wyoming. Not much quality in those wins, kids.)
23. Georgetown (If they can win out? Then they can usurp Tennessee as the team that gets in solely on the strength of their strength of schedule. They would have to thread the needle of Louisville in DC and at Villanova to do it, but if they can? They will be the Big Easts 8th team.)
24. Michigan (Second best RPI among the currently unlisted. But Georgetown's proverbial needle to thread is a little less difficult than Michigan's. (Purdue, at Wisconsin and at Minnesota are their last three.) They would need to beat Iowa in Iowa City and take two of those three to get into consideration.)
25. Niagra (Beat Siena at home and they have to be in the conversation of at-large berths. That being said? They would need to get themselves a third match-up versus Siena and win out to state their case completely.)
Yes! I made a new list! You're welcome!
Friday, February 20, 2009
Say you're in a Yahoo draft, and like most in a Yahoo Draft...
You can't be bothered to do research. There are 15 rounds in your head, and you're in round 16. So what do you do? How do you queue this up? Well, I'll give you 20 names for the end of your draft, and you use them how you will.
1) Erik Bedard (SP-Sea)
The thing about Bedard is that it was his hip that lead to the shoulder soreness. He should be healthy for the start of the season. And he may start slowly, kind of like Sabathia did last year. But you know what? He could be spectacular from June 1st on. I know Yahoo has a narrow bench, and if you can't keep him you can't keep him. But with a 2007 upside in the 17th-18th round? You have to take a flier.
2) Jered Weaver (SP-LAA)
Yeah, I know. His rookie year was a bit of a fluke. He's been an injury prone pitcher who's been above Braden Looper-Jeff Suppan levels, but barely. That being said? He's got a chance to rebreakout this season. Now while he was a little worse in his second half, his peripheral stats were much better. He struck out a batter an inning and three for every batter he walked. He's got a shot to rebreak out. He's Age 26 with experience, after all.
3) Josh Johnson (SP-Fla)
He came back in the late season and was just as impressive as he was before he had his Tommy John surgery. He's still just 25, and while he may not hold the same BB/9 as he did last season? He could still be a 15 win, 3.25 ERA, 160 K sort of a starter. It's a beautiful thing.
4) Pablo Sandoval (1B/3B/C-SF)
I know, recommending a Giant on offense as a solid value is dancing with danger. And in the grand scheme of things? Sandoval isn't going to be good as a rotisserie first baseman. But never mind that bollocks. He's a qualified catcher and third baseman this year. He has a J.T. Snow sort of an offensive game. 15 homer power, .290 average. As such? He's a top ten catcher. He could very possibly outhit Wieters.
5) Chris Perez (RP-St. Louis)
Now sure, you could find Brian Wilson or Joel Hanarahan toward the end of the draft. But if the Cardinals are smart? You can get yourself the next Fransisco Cordero. Chris Perez has the electric arm that is a requirement of the archetypal closer. He walks a little bit too much, and that is why the devil wanted a more established closer, but you know what? With the mixture of rotten luck in the bullpen and the thunder in his arm. Draft him. He will get 35-40 saves.
6) Ian Stewart (3B/2B-Col)
If you want a dude who would be a cheap source of .260/20/80? Here's the guy. Now at third base, that potential is of a marginal quality at best. But at second base? That's top ten numbers. You may want to get a second second baseman for the 70 games or so that the Rockies aren't in a hitters park. But you could get 90% of Dan Uggla at 20% of the value. I say go for it!
7) Sin-Soo Choo (OF-Cle)
Obvious jokes about relish aside, he destroyed AL pitching in the second half. He does have the ability to send fly balls over the fence when he hits them. He gets 600 at-bats? It's .300/20/90/20/90 time. It's a worthwhile flier for you to take a shot.
8) Andrew McCutchen (OF-Pit)
Now some of you all want Wieters. And some of you all want Cameron [Annoying Chris Berman Nickname]. And this means McCutter, gets to go under the radar. In five years, he's going to be Shane Victorino. But as for this year? He's probably going to have a short stint in AAA as Njyer Morgan takes time. But you know what? You can get 30 steals out of him right now. I'd move McClouth out of to left and start the Pittsburgh McOutfield Era.
9) Mike Jacobs (1B-KC)
There are some who consider Mike Jacobs as something below young Billy Butler or old Adam LaRoche. Some think that Kila Cooey Cooey Cooey will usurp him on some level. (I doubt this, though Ryan Shealy, fandom of Justice League International, and a desire not to spellcheck may be blinding me.) I think Mike Jacobs is going to give you a .275/35/100 at first base. That's Carlos Delgado numbers, and it's going to be a beautiful thing.
10) Max Scherzer (SP/RP-Ari)
Never mind the bollocks if he doesn't win a starting job. Look at Juan Cruz' numbers as a Diamondback. Max could probably kiss the strikeout numbers with 5 to 10 less walks. Yeah, he's going to be one of the few draftable middle relievers that you could feel safe in going and grabbing. But don't reach if you're uncertain.
11) Anibal Sanchez (SP-Fla)
This is a the speculative play. And if you're in a shallow league, you may as well take a flier on one. And Mr. Sanchez here is a nice choice. Now, he was nowhere near as good upon his injury return as Josh Johnson would. But his peripherals are better than expected. If he can touch his 2006 magic? He'll be great, if not a little wild. If healthy? He'll generate an okay ERA, decent amounts of wins, and a solid strikeout title. Buy the ticket, take the ride.
12) Josh Fields (3B-CWS)
He and Arizona's Mark Reynolds are very similar. The power numbers are real. Both have struggles putting bat on ball, but while Reynolds does have a double figures in steals upside, Fields has a much clearer path to the job. Chad Tracy has shown 30 homer skills. Wilson Betemit? A worse fielder with a worse approach at the plate. He's going undrafted. And he really shouldn't be.
13) Chris Snyder (C-Ari)
Now Chris Ianetta and Mike Napoli may be underpriced, as they will be studs in the act 3 of the 4 act fantasy draft. But Chris Snyder? He's inexplicably ranked below Dioner Navarro. He has a shot to bring Ian Stewart levels of offense to catcher if he learns how to hit home runs in the BOB. Be willing to bet he can.
14) Luke Scott (OF-Bal)
Sometimes there isn't much sexy to your sleeper. Luke Scott is the perfect example. Luke Scott is going to grow up to be Raul Ibanez. He's not going to be all the way live yet. But he's got really strong chance to get .270/28/80 this season. For your current 68th best outfielder? That is fringe starter numbers if the man is healthy.
15) Taylor Buchholz (RP-Col)
Tattoo this behind your eyeballs. Huston Street always gets hurt. Always always always. Taylor Buchholz is a solid middle reliever, even in Colorado. He is the closer in waiting for the oblique strain/shoulder inpingement that Street is eventually going to succumb to. (FWIW? Huston Street is still a cheap source of saves in the middle of the draft.)
16) Clayton Kershaw (SP-LAD)
Kind of like the whole thing with Chad Billingsley growing up from his split season to his first full season? You'll see Kershaw with about 160 IP with a 3.62 ERA and 140 K if he keeps his walks under control. He's imperfect in that respect. But the rest of him is a matter of when. But don't fret to badly if someone else knows who he is.
17) Matt Joyce (OF-TB)
He doesn't have that ol' magic of a .280/30/100 hitter. He just doesn't make enough contact. But the man did average a dinger in every twenty at bats when he was in Comerica. The Trop generates more power, so you could see Jack Cust power numbers with a support neutral batting average. And there's nothing wrong with that.
18) Matt LaPorta (OF-Cle)
You want the guy most likely to get himself 30 home runs despite waiting until May? Crack open a bottle of this port. HAH! Sorry. He's got an excellent approach at the plate, and with the Indians line-up? He'll be well-protected. Give it six weeks, and he'll be a big leaguer.
19) Kevin Slowey (SP-Min)
Why do you need to believe in Slowey? He's got superb control of three pitches. And he doesn't allow many baserunners. He's learning how to get grounders. He's going to get an ERA of 3.51 and a WHIP under 1.250. How many wins he gets is wholly dependent on the offense. It could be 10. It could be 17. I don't know how well the Twins are gonna do.
20) The Murphy Brothers (David: OF-Tex. Daniel: 2B/3B/OF-NYM)
Both Murphys come with good value. David is going to be a Rusty Greerish type that will cull 500 plate appearances and good Aaron Rowand style numbers in doing so. Daniel is someone who could generate a Kelly Johnson season if he qualifies at second. So he's good. There's a third brother. I think his name is Dewey or Derek or Steve.
I think he's retarded. Or lives in Oakland. Same difference.
There you go. A list of 20-25 sleepers for the edge of your fantasy baseball. And I tell you this. In 1863? These would have been true greats.
1) Erik Bedard (SP-Sea)
The thing about Bedard is that it was his hip that lead to the shoulder soreness. He should be healthy for the start of the season. And he may start slowly, kind of like Sabathia did last year. But you know what? He could be spectacular from June 1st on. I know Yahoo has a narrow bench, and if you can't keep him you can't keep him. But with a 2007 upside in the 17th-18th round? You have to take a flier.
2) Jered Weaver (SP-LAA)
Yeah, I know. His rookie year was a bit of a fluke. He's been an injury prone pitcher who's been above Braden Looper-Jeff Suppan levels, but barely. That being said? He's got a chance to rebreakout this season. Now while he was a little worse in his second half, his peripheral stats were much better. He struck out a batter an inning and three for every batter he walked. He's got a shot to rebreak out. He's Age 26 with experience, after all.
3) Josh Johnson (SP-Fla)
He came back in the late season and was just as impressive as he was before he had his Tommy John surgery. He's still just 25, and while he may not hold the same BB/9 as he did last season? He could still be a 15 win, 3.25 ERA, 160 K sort of a starter. It's a beautiful thing.
4) Pablo Sandoval (1B/3B/C-SF)
I know, recommending a Giant on offense as a solid value is dancing with danger. And in the grand scheme of things? Sandoval isn't going to be good as a rotisserie first baseman. But never mind that bollocks. He's a qualified catcher and third baseman this year. He has a J.T. Snow sort of an offensive game. 15 homer power, .290 average. As such? He's a top ten catcher. He could very possibly outhit Wieters.
5) Chris Perez (RP-St. Louis)
Now sure, you could find Brian Wilson or Joel Hanarahan toward the end of the draft. But if the Cardinals are smart? You can get yourself the next Fransisco Cordero. Chris Perez has the electric arm that is a requirement of the archetypal closer. He walks a little bit too much, and that is why the devil wanted a more established closer, but you know what? With the mixture of rotten luck in the bullpen and the thunder in his arm. Draft him. He will get 35-40 saves.
6) Ian Stewart (3B/2B-Col)
If you want a dude who would be a cheap source of .260/20/80? Here's the guy. Now at third base, that potential is of a marginal quality at best. But at second base? That's top ten numbers. You may want to get a second second baseman for the 70 games or so that the Rockies aren't in a hitters park. But you could get 90% of Dan Uggla at 20% of the value. I say go for it!
7) Sin-Soo Choo (OF-Cle)
Obvious jokes about relish aside, he destroyed AL pitching in the second half. He does have the ability to send fly balls over the fence when he hits them. He gets 600 at-bats? It's .300/20/90/20/90 time. It's a worthwhile flier for you to take a shot.
8) Andrew McCutchen (OF-Pit)
Now some of you all want Wieters. And some of you all want Cameron [Annoying Chris Berman Nickname]. And this means McCutter, gets to go under the radar. In five years, he's going to be Shane Victorino. But as for this year? He's probably going to have a short stint in AAA as Njyer Morgan takes time. But you know what? You can get 30 steals out of him right now. I'd move McClouth out of to left and start the Pittsburgh McOutfield Era.
9) Mike Jacobs (1B-KC)
There are some who consider Mike Jacobs as something below young Billy Butler or old Adam LaRoche. Some think that Kila Cooey Cooey Cooey will usurp him on some level. (I doubt this, though Ryan Shealy, fandom of Justice League International, and a desire not to spellcheck may be blinding me.) I think Mike Jacobs is going to give you a .275/35/100 at first base. That's Carlos Delgado numbers, and it's going to be a beautiful thing.
10) Max Scherzer (SP/RP-Ari)
Never mind the bollocks if he doesn't win a starting job. Look at Juan Cruz' numbers as a Diamondback. Max could probably kiss the strikeout numbers with 5 to 10 less walks. Yeah, he's going to be one of the few draftable middle relievers that you could feel safe in going and grabbing. But don't reach if you're uncertain.
11) Anibal Sanchez (SP-Fla)
This is a the speculative play. And if you're in a shallow league, you may as well take a flier on one. And Mr. Sanchez here is a nice choice. Now, he was nowhere near as good upon his injury return as Josh Johnson would. But his peripherals are better than expected. If he can touch his 2006 magic? He'll be great, if not a little wild. If healthy? He'll generate an okay ERA, decent amounts of wins, and a solid strikeout title. Buy the ticket, take the ride.
12) Josh Fields (3B-CWS)
He and Arizona's Mark Reynolds are very similar. The power numbers are real. Both have struggles putting bat on ball, but while Reynolds does have a double figures in steals upside, Fields has a much clearer path to the job. Chad Tracy has shown 30 homer skills. Wilson Betemit? A worse fielder with a worse approach at the plate. He's going undrafted. And he really shouldn't be.
13) Chris Snyder (C-Ari)
Now Chris Ianetta and Mike Napoli may be underpriced, as they will be studs in the act 3 of the 4 act fantasy draft. But Chris Snyder? He's inexplicably ranked below Dioner Navarro. He has a shot to bring Ian Stewart levels of offense to catcher if he learns how to hit home runs in the BOB. Be willing to bet he can.
14) Luke Scott (OF-Bal)
Sometimes there isn't much sexy to your sleeper. Luke Scott is the perfect example. Luke Scott is going to grow up to be Raul Ibanez. He's not going to be all the way live yet. But he's got really strong chance to get .270/28/80 this season. For your current 68th best outfielder? That is fringe starter numbers if the man is healthy.
15) Taylor Buchholz (RP-Col)
Tattoo this behind your eyeballs. Huston Street always gets hurt. Always always always. Taylor Buchholz is a solid middle reliever, even in Colorado. He is the closer in waiting for the oblique strain/shoulder inpingement that Street is eventually going to succumb to. (FWIW? Huston Street is still a cheap source of saves in the middle of the draft.)
16) Clayton Kershaw (SP-LAD)
Kind of like the whole thing with Chad Billingsley growing up from his split season to his first full season? You'll see Kershaw with about 160 IP with a 3.62 ERA and 140 K if he keeps his walks under control. He's imperfect in that respect. But the rest of him is a matter of when. But don't fret to badly if someone else knows who he is.
17) Matt Joyce (OF-TB)
He doesn't have that ol' magic of a .280/30/100 hitter. He just doesn't make enough contact. But the man did average a dinger in every twenty at bats when he was in Comerica. The Trop generates more power, so you could see Jack Cust power numbers with a support neutral batting average. And there's nothing wrong with that.
18) Matt LaPorta (OF-Cle)
You want the guy most likely to get himself 30 home runs despite waiting until May? Crack open a bottle of this port. HAH! Sorry. He's got an excellent approach at the plate, and with the Indians line-up? He'll be well-protected. Give it six weeks, and he'll be a big leaguer.
19) Kevin Slowey (SP-Min)
Why do you need to believe in Slowey? He's got superb control of three pitches. And he doesn't allow many baserunners. He's learning how to get grounders. He's going to get an ERA of 3.51 and a WHIP under 1.250. How many wins he gets is wholly dependent on the offense. It could be 10. It could be 17. I don't know how well the Twins are gonna do.
20) The Murphy Brothers (David: OF-Tex. Daniel: 2B/3B/OF-NYM)
Both Murphys come with good value. David is going to be a Rusty Greerish type that will cull 500 plate appearances and good Aaron Rowand style numbers in doing so. Daniel is someone who could generate a Kelly Johnson season if he qualifies at second. So he's good. There's a third brother. I think his name is Dewey or Derek or Steve.
I think he's retarded. Or lives in Oakland. Same difference.
There you go. A list of 20-25 sleepers for the edge of your fantasy baseball. And I tell you this. In 1863? These would have been true greats.
Knockout Saturday...
Now this weekend, you have to watch the majestry of the mid-majors. Illinois State and Niagra fighting to get on the outside looking in of the bubble and whatnot. But while you look and notice that Siena is really kind of awesome, there are eleven major teams playing for their tournament lives. Now sure, some are on the super periphery, but if they pull the upset? The bracketologists have to consider them.
It is a list post, I will order them according to the bracketological implications.
10) Providence vs. Notre Dame
Why even list this game? Notre Dame is an NIT team, Providence's computer numbers are marginal at best. They still would need to steal one of at home vs. Pittsburgh or at Villanova to even be considered. So why list the fighting Keno Davis' as a knockout game? Because a win here likely gets Providence to ten conference wins. And if they can swing eleven? There's a definite chance of Keno Davis winning a coach of the year.
9) Nebraska at Kansas
Now sure, asking for Nebraska to take down Kansas on the road is a tall task. But the fact of the matter? If they can get it done, it's a top notch win in their last ten games over a potential two seed that was on a 38 game home winning streak. Put it this way. If Abe Dagundro and Paul Velander can get that done? Of all the potential 19 win teams, they have to climb the ladder of contention.
8) Kentucky vs. Tennessee
Patrick Patterson's limited play is something that makes this game not as much of a gimme as it could have been. The Vols are strong like Bull in the low post, and you saw what Vanderbilt did with a team that couldn't be at full strength down low. With only one guaranteed win from here on out, Kentucky could find themselves in some trouble if the Vols come out fired up. Remember, Meeks kicked their ass the last time they played.
7) USC vs. Washington
Southern California needs to win one of their next two. Otherwise? They will find themselves in the morass. It would be a resume too similar to Baylor, Georgetown, Miami, Oklahoma State, and Wisconsin. Now maybe they get in, and maybe they stay out. But if they can get to 19 off of a quality win? Then if they go into Stanford and win? That equals twenty.
6) UNLV vs. BYU
Losing at Wyoming just might be a killshot for the Rebels chances. Sure, they will get 20 wins. But beating Air Force is an RPI killer for marginal computer numbers. (Check how Kansas State's RPI fell off the cliff after they beat North Carolina Central.) And they have to beat the top three in conference. BYU does come to Vegas, but they have to go to San Diego State and Utah. (I will say this now. They need to beat BYU to stay alive.)
5) New Mexico vs. San Diego State
New Mexico has a very razor thin margin to work with. But that being said? They have a better chance to get any potential fourth berth for your Mountain West Conference than the aforementioned UNLV. They do play the top two teams. But they have to come to Las Cruces. And that is worth at least five points for the Lobos. Win out? It's 21-10, 12-4 and an RPI that isn't indefensible with an 8-2 record in their last 10 games. But they have to steal two.
4) Georgetown vs. Marquette
Georgetown has a chance of winning four out of his last five. Now this and Louisville will be tough games, but Georgetown is a young team. Losing seven of eight was bound to happen. The thing is? If they can get past that and find a way to use their low post to dominate Marquette? It's a quality win in their last ten. It may only mean a stay of execution, but they thread the needle, it's an 18-win team with good computer numbers (37/3) and a lot of quality wins (UConn, Memphis, Syracuse, Marquette and Louisville).
3) Vanderbilt at Florida
I know, the computer numbers for the Commodores should belie them from any real consideration at this point (91/107), but they also have they eye of the tiger for this game. They got dropped by 25 at home versus the Gators. So yeah, a win here means upset city.
That being said? They steal it and hold serve the rest of the way? They will be on the cutline come selection Sunday. And as for Florida? They still are on the safe line right now. And a loss here doesn't mean death, but their last four are a strong challenge. (@ LSU, Tennessee, @ Mississippi State, Kentucky), so they need this one to feel safe.
2) Boston College at Miami
Why I kept Miami in the Tournament teams bracket is the fact that this game starts a run of four consecutive games for the Hurricanes that they should win. (After this it's @ Virginia, @ Georgia Tech and vs. North Carolina State). But Boston College has their swagger back after they beat Duke last Sunday. And a win here clinches 20 wins overall and a .500 record in conference play. And it would knock out Miami from any real tournament consideration.
1) Baylor at Oklahoma State
The winner of this game has an excellent shot of running themselves back to at least .500 in conference, the loser is very likely going to have to steal one if they want to get there. (Though Baylor's needle is a lot easier to thread than Oklahoma State's. Winning at Texas looks a lot easier than winning at Oklahoma, even if Baylor has a minimal low-post presence.) My gut says that Baylor is going to win this game, but it should be very fun to watch. Tournament atmosphere, two teams that run and gun, and a game that promises to be in the 80's.
So you see? This is going to be one of the truly great weekends of college basketball. The Mid-Majors are shining, teams are fighting for their lives. God love it kids.
Get ready for March.
Drew!
It is a list post, I will order them according to the bracketological implications.
10) Providence vs. Notre Dame
Why even list this game? Notre Dame is an NIT team, Providence's computer numbers are marginal at best. They still would need to steal one of at home vs. Pittsburgh or at Villanova to even be considered. So why list the fighting Keno Davis' as a knockout game? Because a win here likely gets Providence to ten conference wins. And if they can swing eleven? There's a definite chance of Keno Davis winning a coach of the year.
9) Nebraska at Kansas
Now sure, asking for Nebraska to take down Kansas on the road is a tall task. But the fact of the matter? If they can get it done, it's a top notch win in their last ten games over a potential two seed that was on a 38 game home winning streak. Put it this way. If Abe Dagundro and Paul Velander can get that done? Of all the potential 19 win teams, they have to climb the ladder of contention.
8) Kentucky vs. Tennessee
Patrick Patterson's limited play is something that makes this game not as much of a gimme as it could have been. The Vols are strong like Bull in the low post, and you saw what Vanderbilt did with a team that couldn't be at full strength down low. With only one guaranteed win from here on out, Kentucky could find themselves in some trouble if the Vols come out fired up. Remember, Meeks kicked their ass the last time they played.
7) USC vs. Washington
Southern California needs to win one of their next two. Otherwise? They will find themselves in the morass. It would be a resume too similar to Baylor, Georgetown, Miami, Oklahoma State, and Wisconsin. Now maybe they get in, and maybe they stay out. But if they can get to 19 off of a quality win? Then if they go into Stanford and win? That equals twenty.
6) UNLV vs. BYU
Losing at Wyoming just might be a killshot for the Rebels chances. Sure, they will get 20 wins. But beating Air Force is an RPI killer for marginal computer numbers. (Check how Kansas State's RPI fell off the cliff after they beat North Carolina Central.) And they have to beat the top three in conference. BYU does come to Vegas, but they have to go to San Diego State and Utah. (I will say this now. They need to beat BYU to stay alive.)
5) New Mexico vs. San Diego State
New Mexico has a very razor thin margin to work with. But that being said? They have a better chance to get any potential fourth berth for your Mountain West Conference than the aforementioned UNLV. They do play the top two teams. But they have to come to Las Cruces. And that is worth at least five points for the Lobos. Win out? It's 21-10, 12-4 and an RPI that isn't indefensible with an 8-2 record in their last 10 games. But they have to steal two.
4) Georgetown vs. Marquette
Georgetown has a chance of winning four out of his last five. Now this and Louisville will be tough games, but Georgetown is a young team. Losing seven of eight was bound to happen. The thing is? If they can get past that and find a way to use their low post to dominate Marquette? It's a quality win in their last ten. It may only mean a stay of execution, but they thread the needle, it's an 18-win team with good computer numbers (37/3) and a lot of quality wins (UConn, Memphis, Syracuse, Marquette and Louisville).
3) Vanderbilt at Florida
I know, the computer numbers for the Commodores should belie them from any real consideration at this point (91/107), but they also have they eye of the tiger for this game. They got dropped by 25 at home versus the Gators. So yeah, a win here means upset city.
That being said? They steal it and hold serve the rest of the way? They will be on the cutline come selection Sunday. And as for Florida? They still are on the safe line right now. And a loss here doesn't mean death, but their last four are a strong challenge. (@ LSU, Tennessee, @ Mississippi State, Kentucky), so they need this one to feel safe.
2) Boston College at Miami
Why I kept Miami in the Tournament teams bracket is the fact that this game starts a run of four consecutive games for the Hurricanes that they should win. (After this it's @ Virginia, @ Georgia Tech and vs. North Carolina State). But Boston College has their swagger back after they beat Duke last Sunday. And a win here clinches 20 wins overall and a .500 record in conference play. And it would knock out Miami from any real tournament consideration.
1) Baylor at Oklahoma State
The winner of this game has an excellent shot of running themselves back to at least .500 in conference, the loser is very likely going to have to steal one if they want to get there. (Though Baylor's needle is a lot easier to thread than Oklahoma State's. Winning at Texas looks a lot easier than winning at Oklahoma, even if Baylor has a minimal low-post presence.) My gut says that Baylor is going to win this game, but it should be very fun to watch. Tournament atmosphere, two teams that run and gun, and a game that promises to be in the 80's.
So you see? This is going to be one of the truly great weekends of college basketball. The Mid-Majors are shining, teams are fighting for their lives. God love it kids.
Get ready for March.
Drew!
Monday, February 16, 2009
You know they say that the pop culture when you're 13 is the Pop Culture you follow to your death?
In a way, it can explain why I liked the Suns.
For you see, Wisconsin in the early 90's was essentially Bulls country. It's too long and indepth of a story for me to get to in blog form. But that being said? Suffice it to say that I delevoped an annoyance of dynastys, Michael Jordan, as well as competitiveness during those formative years.
Suffice it to say? I attached myself to the first rival that would be able to make it a series. And during the spectacular flooding of 1993? My family had a sidewinder of a journey from Golden Valley to Portage. We got re-routed at Osseo and suffice it to say the day ended with the triple overtime classic where the Suns outlasted the Bulls.
Memorable games when you're young attach you to weird teams.
And this is why the state of the Phoenix Suns makes me morose. There are much better treatises on the whys and hows. Suffice it to say that Jack McCallum's book has become an obituary for the competent Phoenix Suns. The greatest show on Parquet has turned into the dessicated husk that's about to turn into a slightly warmer version of the L.A. Clippers.
Watch them trade Amare for J.J. Hickson, an expiring contract and the potential rights to Jerel McNeal. C'est la vie.
For you see, Wisconsin in the early 90's was essentially Bulls country. It's too long and indepth of a story for me to get to in blog form. But that being said? Suffice it to say that I delevoped an annoyance of dynastys, Michael Jordan, as well as competitiveness during those formative years.
Suffice it to say? I attached myself to the first rival that would be able to make it a series. And during the spectacular flooding of 1993? My family had a sidewinder of a journey from Golden Valley to Portage. We got re-routed at Osseo and suffice it to say the day ended with the triple overtime classic where the Suns outlasted the Bulls.
Memorable games when you're young attach you to weird teams.
And this is why the state of the Phoenix Suns makes me morose. There are much better treatises on the whys and hows. Suffice it to say that Jack McCallum's book has become an obituary for the competent Phoenix Suns. The greatest show on Parquet has turned into the dessicated husk that's about to turn into a slightly warmer version of the L.A. Clippers.
Watch them trade Amare for J.J. Hickson, an expiring contract and the potential rights to Jerel McNeal. C'est la vie.
Friday, February 13, 2009
The State of SEC Hoops
a.k.a. the B-List
You have a chance at 6 tournament berths, or a miracle party crasher. This is going to be a very interesting Conference to watch in the next month so, yeah. Watch it.
Anyway...
East
Florida: (Nick Calathes pro-tip: When in a pot with two or more callers, you can slide through the lane with small pairs and suited connectors. But Alex Tyus is kinda awesome dude.)
South Carolina: (Getting this team into a likely position for an NCAA Tournament berth has likely clinched Darrin Horn the coach of the year.)
Kentucky: (Still a two man army, but when it's Meeks and Patterson? You're dealing in gold, baby.)
Tennessee: (One of the teams that has been burned by the furthering of the three point line. Everybody in the rotation chucks up two or three per game. And outside of Scotty Hopson? Nobody's that good.)
Vanderbilt: (Why are they one the wrong side of the bubble? An inability to take care of the ball. They need to get two out of their next three to get back to good. That might be impossible.)
Georgia: (When you have Terrence Woodbury as your go-to guy? You are very likely not going to get much above 10 wins.)
West
LSU: (From the Final Four to the Crater to the SEC Champs in four years. The only weakness they have? If you get them into foul trouble? The bench is inexperienced. Feburary 28th is going to be a classic at Rupp.)
Mississippi State: (Several bad non-conference losses are going to be the reason why they cannot make the big dance. Charlotte, Texas Tech, and San Diego are going to kill this team if they don't get a signature win. Do it for the Vanardo!)
Auburn: (Why hasn't Jeff Lebo been fired? Kovortney Barber is nothing more than a badass. Also DeWayne Reed is a point who just may keep the window of opportunity open.)
Mississippi (They've been .500 since Andy Kennedy got drunk and the Chris Warren experience torn its ACL. It's a scrappy team.)
Alabama: (For a poor-shooting team with no real point guard? This is a team that has some good piece of the puzzle. JaMychal Green and Senario Hillman are the two pieces that are going to create magic.)
Arkansas: (It's still a young team. But they are not deep down low and they struggle at the line. Courtney Fortson and Michael Washington still could be a Meeks-Patterson for 2010.)
You have a chance at 6 tournament berths, or a miracle party crasher. This is going to be a very interesting Conference to watch in the next month so, yeah. Watch it.
Anyway...
East
Florida: (Nick Calathes pro-tip: When in a pot with two or more callers, you can slide through the lane with small pairs and suited connectors. But Alex Tyus is kinda awesome dude.)
South Carolina: (Getting this team into a likely position for an NCAA Tournament berth has likely clinched Darrin Horn the coach of the year.)
Kentucky: (Still a two man army, but when it's Meeks and Patterson? You're dealing in gold, baby.)
Tennessee: (One of the teams that has been burned by the furthering of the three point line. Everybody in the rotation chucks up two or three per game. And outside of Scotty Hopson? Nobody's that good.)
Vanderbilt: (Why are they one the wrong side of the bubble? An inability to take care of the ball. They need to get two out of their next three to get back to good. That might be impossible.)
Georgia: (When you have Terrence Woodbury as your go-to guy? You are very likely not going to get much above 10 wins.)
West
LSU: (From the Final Four to the Crater to the SEC Champs in four years. The only weakness they have? If you get them into foul trouble? The bench is inexperienced. Feburary 28th is going to be a classic at Rupp.)
Mississippi State: (Several bad non-conference losses are going to be the reason why they cannot make the big dance. Charlotte, Texas Tech, and San Diego are going to kill this team if they don't get a signature win. Do it for the Vanardo!)
Auburn: (Why hasn't Jeff Lebo been fired? Kovortney Barber is nothing more than a badass. Also DeWayne Reed is a point who just may keep the window of opportunity open.)
Mississippi (They've been .500 since Andy Kennedy got drunk and the Chris Warren experience torn its ACL. It's a scrappy team.)
Alabama: (For a poor-shooting team with no real point guard? This is a team that has some good piece of the puzzle. JaMychal Green and Senario Hillman are the two pieces that are going to create magic.)
Arkansas: (It's still a young team. But they are not deep down low and they struggle at the line. Courtney Fortson and Michael Washington still could be a Meeks-Patterson for 2010.)
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Bubble Watch: Wisconsin Badgers
In Feburary, it's a dark time for sports. The Super Bowl is over. Pitchers and catchers and report, and yay. But what else? Nothing.
This is where the Bubble Watch comes in. Every other day or two? We'll roll up here and discuss the divinity of teams on the fence. Today? We'll start with a modern power that's been made of close losses and one bad streak.
Wisconsin Badgers (13-9, 5-6)
RPI: 27
SOS: 3
vs. Top 25: 1-3
vs. Top 50: 3-7
Quality Wins: vs. Illinois, @ Virginia Tech, @ Michigan
Bad Losses: at Iowa is the closest thing.
The mishagoes of the Badgers have been discussed in depth on the site. A team that's based on not fouling has fouled too much. They can't defend the three. Scorers can disappear often during crunch time. Suffice it to say? It's been a strange year in Madison.
That being said? Two games with Indiana and strong computer numbers can be worth a lot.
Remaining Games: Iowa, Ohio State, @ Indiana, @ Michigan State, Michigan, @ Minnesota, Indiana
With the sudden burst of momentum and emphatic wins versus Illinois and at Penn State? You can see the Badgers getting to Michigan State on a five game winning streak. You can see a 5-2 finish here. And is 10 Big 10 wins enough? I'd say yeah.
Final Judgements
Record: 19-12, 11-9 (Out after 2nd Big 10 Game.)
Last 12 Games: 8-4
Are they In? 9 Seed.
This is where the Bubble Watch comes in. Every other day or two? We'll roll up here and discuss the divinity of teams on the fence. Today? We'll start with a modern power that's been made of close losses and one bad streak.
Wisconsin Badgers (13-9, 5-6)
RPI: 27
SOS: 3
vs. Top 25: 1-3
vs. Top 50: 3-7
Quality Wins: vs. Illinois, @ Virginia Tech, @ Michigan
Bad Losses: at Iowa is the closest thing.
The mishagoes of the Badgers have been discussed in depth on the site. A team that's based on not fouling has fouled too much. They can't defend the three. Scorers can disappear often during crunch time. Suffice it to say? It's been a strange year in Madison.
That being said? Two games with Indiana and strong computer numbers can be worth a lot.
Remaining Games: Iowa, Ohio State, @ Indiana, @ Michigan State, Michigan, @ Minnesota, Indiana
With the sudden burst of momentum and emphatic wins versus Illinois and at Penn State? You can see the Badgers getting to Michigan State on a five game winning streak. You can see a 5-2 finish here. And is 10 Big 10 wins enough? I'd say yeah.
Final Judgements
Record: 19-12, 11-9 (Out after 2nd Big 10 Game.)
Last 12 Games: 8-4
Are they In? 9 Seed.
Monday, February 9, 2009
Twenty-five things that will happen in Baseball this season...
I am feeling two moods, a mood for lists and a mood for projection... This is where the obvious headline comes into play. 25 things that will happen in baseball Ready, steady, go.
1. There will be a rush of Type A Free Agents after the June draft.
Compensation has been an issue. As an example, the Brewers had been interested in Juan Cruz before the C.C. Sabathia clusterfuck. But outside of maybe Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson, and Manny Ramirez. And they may not even make it. It is what it is.
2. The St. Louis Cardinals will win the NL Central.
And 87 games will be enough to take it down.
3. Adam Dunn will have a higher OPS than Manny Ramirez.
4. Carlos Villanueva will be the best set-up man in baseball...
If Trevor Hoffman doesn't fail as a closer.
5. B.J. Upton will be the ginchiest of trade prospects for your Fantasy Baseball team.
He had shoulder surgery. This means his average and power totals will likely be lower in the first half. But a .300/10/45/20/50 sort of a second half? Is gold.
6. Curtis Granderson will go for a 30/30 season this year.
He is still underrated. He's the Grady Sizemore of underrated Center Fielders.
7. The Royals will contend. Seriously.
Or Alex Gordon will be dead by Kyle Farnsworth's hand.
8. The Rays will fall back to Earth.
To be a good surprise, you need to win the World Series the shocker season. See the 93 Phillies, the 2007 Tigers, and other teams not named the 1991 Atlanta Braves. My gut says 4th.
9. Nelson Cruz will not be Geronimo Berroa with steals.
And isn't Brandon Boggs starting?
10. Outside the Lines will have a month of programs on Alex Rodriguez.
And Bob Ley will continue to be haunted by the ghost of Tom Mees.
11. Jake Peavy will not be traded.
12. The most valuable player on the Diamondbacks? Yusemiro Petit.
Max Scherzer probably doesn't have more than 150 IP in him. And Doug Davis has control problems. The long reliever is huge.
13. David Price will be the AL Rookie of the Year
I don't hate Wieters. But catchers as rookies is a meme that you really can't trust. I like LaPorta to have a Ryan Braunish on the Indians in Left after they realize that Ben Fransisco isn't a full-timer.
14. Miguel Cabrera will be the largest player traded.
Both in name and in actual size. Get him in a hitters park and he may have a 30 homer half of baseball. .320/30/70? YES!
15. The Philadelphia Phillies will take a flier on a name starter recovering from an injury.
Expect a Mark Mulder of some sort to boo. But Brett Myers is a real and true injury risk. And you do not want Adam Eaton as your 6th starter in peril.
16. The Homer Bailey watchers will remain disappointed.
17. Cameron Maybin will be your NL Rookie of the Year
It's a wide-open race, but Maybin has the opportunity to break out for a big lead. Maybe if the Brewers open up a slot they have a chance.
18. Wandy Rodriguez will be a stud for the next five years...
Lefty pitchers have later primes. Remember that.
19. Sadly, the Twins will not get Joe Crede.
If Morneau gets hurt, they will be in last place. (They may collapse even if Morneau has a normal year.)
20. The Yankees will sign Jim Edmonds.
Okay not really. But they should sign him. He's better than Melky, and if Hank Steinbrenner wasn't so irrational in trade negotiations? They would have a center fielder who doesn't blow.
21. Joey Devine will get 45 saves.
22. Matt Capps will be the Pirates lone all-star.
23. The Giants will make a move for someone who isn't a past their prime veteran.
Joe Crede IS a never was and not a has been!
24. Someone will name a blog after Seattle First Baseman Bryan LaHair.
25. The Brewers will sign Brandon Looper.
And hope for the best.
1. There will be a rush of Type A Free Agents after the June draft.
Compensation has been an issue. As an example, the Brewers had been interested in Juan Cruz before the C.C. Sabathia clusterfuck. But outside of maybe Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson, and Manny Ramirez. And they may not even make it. It is what it is.
2. The St. Louis Cardinals will win the NL Central.
And 87 games will be enough to take it down.
3. Adam Dunn will have a higher OPS than Manny Ramirez.
4. Carlos Villanueva will be the best set-up man in baseball...
If Trevor Hoffman doesn't fail as a closer.
5. B.J. Upton will be the ginchiest of trade prospects for your Fantasy Baseball team.
He had shoulder surgery. This means his average and power totals will likely be lower in the first half. But a .300/10/45/20/50 sort of a second half? Is gold.
6. Curtis Granderson will go for a 30/30 season this year.
He is still underrated. He's the Grady Sizemore of underrated Center Fielders.
7. The Royals will contend. Seriously.
Or Alex Gordon will be dead by Kyle Farnsworth's hand.
8. The Rays will fall back to Earth.
To be a good surprise, you need to win the World Series the shocker season. See the 93 Phillies, the 2007 Tigers, and other teams not named the 1991 Atlanta Braves. My gut says 4th.
9. Nelson Cruz will not be Geronimo Berroa with steals.
And isn't Brandon Boggs starting?
10. Outside the Lines will have a month of programs on Alex Rodriguez.
And Bob Ley will continue to be haunted by the ghost of Tom Mees.
11. Jake Peavy will not be traded.
12. The most valuable player on the Diamondbacks? Yusemiro Petit.
Max Scherzer probably doesn't have more than 150 IP in him. And Doug Davis has control problems. The long reliever is huge.
13. David Price will be the AL Rookie of the Year
I don't hate Wieters. But catchers as rookies is a meme that you really can't trust. I like LaPorta to have a Ryan Braunish on the Indians in Left after they realize that Ben Fransisco isn't a full-timer.
14. Miguel Cabrera will be the largest player traded.
Both in name and in actual size. Get him in a hitters park and he may have a 30 homer half of baseball. .320/30/70? YES!
15. The Philadelphia Phillies will take a flier on a name starter recovering from an injury.
Expect a Mark Mulder of some sort to boo. But Brett Myers is a real and true injury risk. And you do not want Adam Eaton as your 6th starter in peril.
16. The Homer Bailey watchers will remain disappointed.
17. Cameron Maybin will be your NL Rookie of the Year
It's a wide-open race, but Maybin has the opportunity to break out for a big lead. Maybe if the Brewers open up a slot they have a chance.
18. Wandy Rodriguez will be a stud for the next five years...
Lefty pitchers have later primes. Remember that.
19. Sadly, the Twins will not get Joe Crede.
If Morneau gets hurt, they will be in last place. (They may collapse even if Morneau has a normal year.)
20. The Yankees will sign Jim Edmonds.
Okay not really. But they should sign him. He's better than Melky, and if Hank Steinbrenner wasn't so irrational in trade negotiations? They would have a center fielder who doesn't blow.
21. Joey Devine will get 45 saves.
22. Matt Capps will be the Pirates lone all-star.
23. The Giants will make a move for someone who isn't a past their prime veteran.
Joe Crede IS a never was and not a has been!
24. Someone will name a blog after Seattle First Baseman Bryan LaHair.
25. The Brewers will sign Brandon Looper.
And hope for the best.
Sunday, February 8, 2009
A thought exercise...How to draft for the Packers...
Now you know me, I'm a self-professed draft expert. And if I put myself in Ted Thompson's shoes and looked at how to draft for the Packers? I think I can make this team better. Pizza Hut style.
Now, there is one reason why this is merely a thought exercise. Ted loves to deal down. It's rare that such a thing would happen in Round 1. But what's in the 4th round may turn into an extra 5 and a 7 with a 6 the next season.
So, without further adieu? Go go Buffalo!
1) Jason Smith OT Baylor
Now there are plenty of players that I would be happy if the Packers selected. Both starting corners are north of 30. But with Tasucher gone and Clifton north of 30? I would start with a Tackle who's an instinctive pass blocker with good athleticism and a perfect fit for the run scheme. And the upside? My god.
The draftguys call him another Ryan Clady, and if he is? Then the Packers have a new left tackle for a decade. Or they could trade down for Everette Brown or Michael Oher. Or draft Vontae Davis. Plenty of options here.
2) Darius Butler CB UConn
Now he's not exactly the upside play of someone like a Patrick Lee. But he is most definitely a player. He's undersized, but he's not strictly a cover corner. He plays with agression and technique. He is a ballhawk. And he will make whichever team that drafts him a better team.
3) Jarron Gilbert DE San Jose State
If you think one Cullen Jenkins is good, wouldn't two be awesome? Gilbert is a Cullen Jenkins clone. Big, with good pass-rushing skills, long arms, he can be a 4-3 Defensive Tackle. He has a nose for the ball, even if he is merely an alumnus of the WAC.
3b) Ron Brace NT Boston College
He is built for one thing, and one thing only. Run-stuffing. And for the Packers? He's a man who fills a necessary need at a more than excellent value. Sure, he doesn't have the sex appeal of his BC Tag Team partner B.J. Raji. But he's a big tackle with a motor and a good desire to improve. He'd be rotational to start, but Ryan Pickett's also north of 30.
4) Fenuki Tenopu OT Oregon
Now that Jason Smith is the Left Tackle of the future? Tenopu is the bookend. He is not a man who has the requisite skills to play the left side. But he is a tailor made run-blocking right tackle. He has agility, a good first step, and power. He plays mean. And with the power-side pass rusher? He'll be a solid starter.
5) Brandon Williams OLB Texas Tech
Now he is listed as a defensive end, but remember 3-4. And as a back-up pass-rusher to Kampman/Would be KGB? He's interesting. Quick, long, with a great first step. He is born to pass rush. However? He would be eaten alive if he was a 4-3 down lineman. He's a bit of a project in coverage, but as an elephant? There's value here.
6) Bernard Scott RB Abilene Christian
Now remember, this is me here. Taking a flier on a Divsion II running back who has had multiple character red flags probably means he won't be a Packer. But you know what? If he's Darnell Dockett and not that darn Chris Henry? He'd have a real future in this league.
Why? He was hyperproductive at every stop. He used fast feet and mobility. And he has a Maurice Jones-Drew sort of power. If he can make the transition? He could be great.
6a) Brandon Underwood FS Cincinatti
Upside, athleticism, and safety depth. He's inexperienced, sure. But when you have Atari Bigby and Aaron Rouse keep getting themselves hurt. The Upside Athletic Depth guy is a necessity.
7) Kory Sperry TE Colorado State
Now perhaps I would see if a rocket-armed division three gunslinger would replacce Matt Flynn as the developmental prospect. And perhaps if I felt froggy, I would jump at another character risk in Andrew Quarless. But in the perfect world, there are two tight ends that can be receiving options in Green Bay. And Sperry would be the Tyrone Davis if Jermichael Finley could not.
Dull? Sure. But you know what? The Packers issues are mostly trench related. And unless you're gonna use the scads of cap room to get Albert Haynesworth or Terrell Suggs to fly in and save the day?
You can't get tricky here.
Now, there is one reason why this is merely a thought exercise. Ted loves to deal down. It's rare that such a thing would happen in Round 1. But what's in the 4th round may turn into an extra 5 and a 7 with a 6 the next season.
So, without further adieu? Go go Buffalo!
1) Jason Smith OT Baylor
Now there are plenty of players that I would be happy if the Packers selected. Both starting corners are north of 30. But with Tasucher gone and Clifton north of 30? I would start with a Tackle who's an instinctive pass blocker with good athleticism and a perfect fit for the run scheme. And the upside? My god.
The draftguys call him another Ryan Clady, and if he is? Then the Packers have a new left tackle for a decade. Or they could trade down for Everette Brown or Michael Oher. Or draft Vontae Davis. Plenty of options here.
2) Darius Butler CB UConn
Now he's not exactly the upside play of someone like a Patrick Lee. But he is most definitely a player. He's undersized, but he's not strictly a cover corner. He plays with agression and technique. He is a ballhawk. And he will make whichever team that drafts him a better team.
3) Jarron Gilbert DE San Jose State
If you think one Cullen Jenkins is good, wouldn't two be awesome? Gilbert is a Cullen Jenkins clone. Big, with good pass-rushing skills, long arms, he can be a 4-3 Defensive Tackle. He has a nose for the ball, even if he is merely an alumnus of the WAC.
3b) Ron Brace NT Boston College
He is built for one thing, and one thing only. Run-stuffing. And for the Packers? He's a man who fills a necessary need at a more than excellent value. Sure, he doesn't have the sex appeal of his BC Tag Team partner B.J. Raji. But he's a big tackle with a motor and a good desire to improve. He'd be rotational to start, but Ryan Pickett's also north of 30.
4) Fenuki Tenopu OT Oregon
Now that Jason Smith is the Left Tackle of the future? Tenopu is the bookend. He is not a man who has the requisite skills to play the left side. But he is a tailor made run-blocking right tackle. He has agility, a good first step, and power. He plays mean. And with the power-side pass rusher? He'll be a solid starter.
5) Brandon Williams OLB Texas Tech
Now he is listed as a defensive end, but remember 3-4. And as a back-up pass-rusher to Kampman/Would be KGB? He's interesting. Quick, long, with a great first step. He is born to pass rush. However? He would be eaten alive if he was a 4-3 down lineman. He's a bit of a project in coverage, but as an elephant? There's value here.
6) Bernard Scott RB Abilene Christian
Now remember, this is me here. Taking a flier on a Divsion II running back who has had multiple character red flags probably means he won't be a Packer. But you know what? If he's Darnell Dockett and not that darn Chris Henry? He'd have a real future in this league.
Why? He was hyperproductive at every stop. He used fast feet and mobility. And he has a Maurice Jones-Drew sort of power. If he can make the transition? He could be great.
6a) Brandon Underwood FS Cincinatti
Upside, athleticism, and safety depth. He's inexperienced, sure. But when you have Atari Bigby and Aaron Rouse keep getting themselves hurt. The Upside Athletic Depth guy is a necessity.
7) Kory Sperry TE Colorado State
Now perhaps I would see if a rocket-armed division three gunslinger would replacce Matt Flynn as the developmental prospect. And perhaps if I felt froggy, I would jump at another character risk in Andrew Quarless. But in the perfect world, there are two tight ends that can be receiving options in Green Bay. And Sperry would be the Tyrone Davis if Jermichael Finley could not.
Dull? Sure. But you know what? The Packers issues are mostly trench related. And unless you're gonna use the scads of cap room to get Albert Haynesworth or Terrell Suggs to fly in and save the day?
You can't get tricky here.
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Ben Sheets: What the Fuck?
That's my opinion.
You get that big contract and you decide to celebrate the occasion by becoming lazier than me. Am I bitter? You're goddamn right I'm bitter. All of these little injuries with the hammy and the obliques? It made your arm turn to shit.
You could have been a Hall of Famer. If you worked? It's not hyperbole. Sure, the greatest 12-14 season of all-time may not have been matched. But even in your sprains and strains era, your lowest ERA+ was 117. I don't know.
I don't want to feel schadenfreude. But you're the rough equivalent of the romatic comedy villain who's too ridiculous to take back. But we kept taking you back.
C'est la vie.
You get that big contract and you decide to celebrate the occasion by becoming lazier than me. Am I bitter? You're goddamn right I'm bitter. All of these little injuries with the hammy and the obliques? It made your arm turn to shit.
You could have been a Hall of Famer. If you worked? It's not hyperbole. Sure, the greatest 12-14 season of all-time may not have been matched. But even in your sprains and strains era, your lowest ERA+ was 117. I don't know.
I don't want to feel schadenfreude. But you're the rough equivalent of the romatic comedy villain who's too ridiculous to take back. But we kept taking you back.
C'est la vie.
I am excited for the Keith Bogans Acquisition...
Because he is exactly the sort of player who can catapult the Bucks all the way to the 2004 Final Four!!!
Seriously, it's a small but necessary move. Keith Bogans has a shot to inexplicably inflate his value...somewhat. He's going to get time as a 6th man, protection of Charlie Bell sort of a dude. This is the Derrick Byars response. Not bad. But some marginal upside.
He's an upgrade over Tyronn Lue. He never lead a team to an Elite Eight!
Seriously, it's a small but necessary move. Keith Bogans has a shot to inexplicably inflate his value...somewhat. He's going to get time as a 6th man, protection of Charlie Bell sort of a dude. This is the Derrick Byars response. Not bad. But some marginal upside.
He's an upgrade over Tyronn Lue. He never lead a team to an Elite Eight!
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
What do these injuries mean for the Bucks?
If they can get James Harden? Good things. I know, I despise Scott Skiles. But year 2 is when they listen at their peak efficency. In his previous two stops, he's had his teams at a .597 winning percentage.
Not saying they're gonna get all the way live, but with the luck they've been having with second round picks? There is a chance. But trade Ridnour! Sessions is a force of nature!
Aaaaaaah!
Not saying they're gonna get all the way live, but with the luck they've been having with second round picks? There is a chance. But trade Ridnour! Sessions is a force of nature!
Aaaaaaah!
Sunday, February 1, 2009
Some would say that this was a classic Super Bowl...
Lies. All lies.
Now I'm not at this point in my life where I am going to scream conspiracy. The Steelers won it fairly. And the Cardinals were a game and worthy opponent. The problem?
The refs. They took away from a hard-fought if not a little grimy game with their incessant need to stop play with their flags and whistles. It was not an NBA-styled game, but that being said?
That referee sure did like to hear his voice, didn't he?
And you know what else? Odds are that Warner had a bridge too far in terms of those last five seconds. But with Boldin, Breaston, and Fitzgerald? Wouldn't you think it would have been cool to see them try? Because everybody knows that the final play was no fumble. And that's a shame.
After all, if the booth wasn't in too much of a fucking hurry to end the game? They would have given us the most exciting play in football that never happens. And if it hit?
Oh my god. Then we would have had a GOAT. At best? We have a poor man's Nipplegate.
Esoterica comes manana.
Now I'm not at this point in my life where I am going to scream conspiracy. The Steelers won it fairly. And the Cardinals were a game and worthy opponent. The problem?
The refs. They took away from a hard-fought if not a little grimy game with their incessant need to stop play with their flags and whistles. It was not an NBA-styled game, but that being said?
That referee sure did like to hear his voice, didn't he?
And you know what else? Odds are that Warner had a bridge too far in terms of those last five seconds. But with Boldin, Breaston, and Fitzgerald? Wouldn't you think it would have been cool to see them try? Because everybody knows that the final play was no fumble. And that's a shame.
After all, if the booth wasn't in too much of a fucking hurry to end the game? They would have given us the most exciting play in football that never happens. And if it hit?
Oh my god. Then we would have had a GOAT. At best? We have a poor man's Nipplegate.
Esoterica comes manana.
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