Baylor as Big 12 South Champs?

Am I kidding? Not really. It could happen. They get past Oklahoma state and all they have to do is beat Texas A&M and a paper tiger named Oklahoma. At worst, they're winning nine games. At worst.

Then again. They still have to get past Oklahoma State. And that means they get the mad genius of on Dana Hologorsen. And that's doomswitch time.

Now that being said, it's not as if Baylor can't matriculate the ball down the field with equal parts moxie and vigah. Both teams are top 10 in total offense, pass offense, as well as yards per play. Fun times could be had by all. Both teams could score 40.

Maybe even 50. After all, both teams can be thrown upon with equal parts moxie and vigor as well. Baylor's 87th against the pass. Oklahoma State? 113th. Remember, Taylor Martinez threw for 300 on the Cowboys.

So, obviously points are going to be scored and scored and scored and scored. So what's going to swing the game? Two things.

1) Red Zone play. Baylor's scored 15 touchdowns in 35 attempts. Oklahoma State has allowed 18 touchdowns in 29 red zone attempts. So if Baylor is going to win, they've got to avoid turning seven into three.

2) Baylor's been merely decent on the road. They got buzzbombed by a great TCU team, and that's okay. Because TCU is great. But that Texas Tech game is worrisome. The lone moment of pure Air Raid Magic came against Baylor. And the week after? Oklahoma State came into Lubbock and shut that down.

The winner of this game is going to win the Big 12 South. Oklahoma has to travel to both places to end the year, and I guarandamntee that they will not emerge unscathed. So, who wins this one? I'll say Oklahoma State 48, Baylor 44.

So, who's going to make the playoffs and who's going to win the Super Bowl?

I'll do this via the process of elimination. We have 32 teams, and we need to get down to 12. And then from 12 we need to get ourselves down to one. I'll keep this fast paced and conversational.

Out via the process of a complete mess.

We've never had an offseason where we have had three offensive coordinators get fired in the preseason. And as such? You can knock out Tampa Bay, Buffalo, and Kansas City from the proceedings. With the ham-fisted handling of the Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall situations, Denver gets knocked out. And Oakland? Oakland is Oakland. Any year they aren't drafting in the top 10 is a surprise.

Out via the process of a partial mess.

With the insane behavior of Michael Crabtree and his tag team partner Eugene Parker? San Fransisco is out. The Hard Knocks curse + Andre Smith + The 6th round pick who once punched out a coach equals Cincinnati is out. Detroit will be better, but the copycat teams in the NFL? They do not bring as much success and off of an 0-16 record, the talent level doesn't skyrocket. Especially in the NFC North.

Out via strengthened schedules?

You can call the failings of Arizona as a by-product of a dual curse. (Madden and Super Bowl loser). And considering that surprise teams rarely have a good encore season? You can use that to knock out Miami and Atlanta. And I don't think we're going to see Baltimore and Tennessee make return trips.

Out because their quarterback is an old man/useless/both?

Minnesota. There are two teams with a real buzz to them, and neither one of them has a 40 year old man with a torn bicep. Houston? Matt Schaub is someone who can only stay upright for 10 to 12 games. And with Rex Grossman as your back-up? It's bad mojo. St. Louis is out because it's Marc Bulger as their starter and nobody rightfully believes in Kyle Boller. And Carolina has a worse defense to go with Jake Delhomme. And despite me stupidly thinking that they could actually make a deep run, I can't pull the trigger on Cleveland. And Jason Campbell, I like him, but he's in the wrong situation to make his way in the world, so goodbye Washington.

Just missing the playoffs?

Dallas. Because fuck them.

So here's our 12 playoff teams.

AFC
1. Pittsburgh
2. Indianapolis
3. San Diego
4. New England
5. Jacksonville
6. NY Jets

NFC
1. New York Giants
2. Green Bay
3. New Orleans
4. Seattle
5. Chicago
6. Philadelphia

Wild Card Weekend?
New England beats the Jets, on account of them putting up a number that the Jets can't match.
San Diego beats Jacksonville, on account of them being able to throw the ball.

New Orleans beats Philadelphia in the game of the weekend.
Chicago beats Seattle. Matt Forte comes up strong.

Divisional Playoffs?
Indianapolis beats New England. Bob Sanders is healthy. It decides things.
San Diego beats Pittsburgh. Because Jesus owes Phillip Rivers.

The Giants beat Chicago in the Lee Marvin game of the divisional round.
Green Bay beats New Orelans in the 1980's WAC game in the second round. 45-31. Yeah.

Championship Game
Indianapolis beats San Diego.
And...here we go. Green Bay wins because the way Eli Manning won the Super Bowl is because he played the five greatest weeks of his life to get there and then the defense took over. The Giants defense isn't as good. And the Packers have more offensive weapons. Is not a homer pick.

Super Bowl
Green Bay 35
Indianapolis 24

Though the buzz on the Packers makes me wince a little. I am excited.

Day 1 Draft Breakdown...Wide Receivers

Last year? There was not much quality to the depth that was out there for the passcatcher. There was a lot of depth, but there was no first round ace. This year? It brings something different. Height and awesome. Trust me, there will be a lot of receivers drafted here.


1. Michael Crabtree Texas Tech
6'2" 215 4.54

There is so much to love about Michael Crabtree's game? It's sick. Outside of timed speed? Here's what Crabtree brings to the table.

Size
Hands
Ball skills
Ups
Hand catching at the high point
Physicality
Route-running
Getting himself open
And he was a Heisman finalist on one foot last year. Yeah. he's an ace.

What's his weaknesses? The speed is not great, and the separation will become an issue at some point. It also means he's never going to be a home run hitter. But I am merely nitpicking. Crabtree is ready.

I mean, worst case scenario? He's Keyshawn Johnson. But like the last redshirt sophomore to declare himself for the draft, there's a surprising polish to his game. If you must know. Crabtree could sky to Larry Fitzgerald's heights. He has that high of an upside.


2. Jeremy Maclin Missouri
6'0" 198 4.45

Jeremy Maclin has that certain something to his game. It's a mixture of elusiveness that rivals Devin Hester and hands that compare favorably to Torry Holt. Give him the first step? And he's gone. Have him leap for the ball? He'll get it. And going east and west? He's just as scary.

He does have one real weakness right now. Ask him to run the entire route tree? And it won't go great. His concentration can run hot and cold. And he does need to develop more on-field strength.

But if he gets his hands on the ball? He's straight nightmare for defenders. You will see him as a returner straight away, and he will be awesome. When his polish gets there? He will be kind of like Steve Smith without the crazy.


3. Darrius Heyward-Bey Maryland
6'2" 210 4.25

There's a certain archetype that you find in Wide Receivers. The wide receiver with superb athleticism and no polish to him. That's DHB in a nuthsell. The 40-time is sexy, and he does have olympic level straight line speed. He does have the build that if the light ever turned on, he could be better than Crabtree. He has solid ball skills and the same sort of physciality and fearlessness.

But his hands are inconsistent on his best days, and his instincts and awareness? Also not so good. Maclin's route running skills are better as well. And that sprinter speed? Strictly straight line as well. He also won't break many tackles for a dude his size.

In my head, I have a name. This is strictly first instinct, and I know I've been proven wrong in these scenarios before. But the name that fits the archetype of DHB, at least in its most recent incarnations? Troy Williamson. Turtle nation can commence feeling insulted...now.


4. Percy Harvin Florida
5'11" 192 4.39

Percy Harvin is a weapon, pure and simple. Get him the ball out in space? And he's going to fuck some shit up. He has soft hands and good body control. But his elusiveness? His elusiveness is the skill that pays his bills. Sweeps, screens, slants and flies. Spectacular.

If you've heard of anything close to Percy Harvin, you know his major weakness is his feet. He does not stay healthy, and it's mostly with his heel and ankle. Sure, route running is a bit of a problem, but you know what? Being a Devin Hester-Reggie Bush type with missing positional and seemingly no special teams skills is essentially ballast if he can't stay healthy.

What he brings to the table when he sees the field? It's Top 5 talent. He is such a good playmaker when healthy you you see him among the left tackles and Crabtree. But the problem? He's not a strong healer, and he always seems dinged up, and that's why he may fall out of the first round of the draft.


5. Hakeem Nicks North Carolina
6'1" 212 4.51

Youtube Hakeem Nicks, and you know what you'll find? He has hands that are spectacular. That catch wasn't merely ancedotal, dude has got hands. He also has general ball skills and excellent body control. And he has the heart to work the middle of the field.

He will never be a vertical threat. He does not have great levels of athleticism. He does not get great separation. The injury at the combine cum fat butt? It is only an issue because it entails character and motor. If he gains 15 pounds because of a lack of working out for the biggest job interview ever? What happens when he gets rich?

Let the scout that made the rumors of Hakeem being an underized tight end fade from your mind. What he is, is a receiver with hands of glue. He may never be spectacular. But he has the grit and intangibles to have a nice decade long run as a Jake Reed type. He will possess your heart.


6. Kenny Britt Rutgers
6'3" 218 4.50

He knows how to use his height and long arms to his advantage like a Republican on a Racist southerner. He can get up and snatch the ball out of the air. Add to that good timed speed, solid route running and a general swagger to his stride? There is a pretty tasty skill set here.

That being said? it's a fine line between swagger and asshole. Britt walks that every day. He also loses his concentration from time to time. And his agility? It's meager at best. So, there just might be those days where he'll go out and get 2 catches for 3 yards.

A potential high reward player with good athleticism despite his mediocre timed speed and unrelaible hands and the diva mentality of many #1 receivers? I wonder if his build reminds you of anybody? Tell you what? I will give you two sets of line breaks and ellipsis to for you to think of a name.

...

...

I say Braylon Edwards clone. What say you?


7. Brian Robiskie Ohio State
6'3" 209 4.46

When it comes down to it? Robiskie has the little things down cold. He does not waste movement on his routes. He finds the openings on zones. And he has the hands to pluck and high point the ball out of the air. He will block and give every effort on every play.

But Ohio State has a notoriously fast track. That 4.46 is not his real football speed. He's never going to be spectacular vertically. And in terms of the elusive question? He's not great at that either. A fast defensive back can get him from behind.

However? He does have a strong skill set. His father is a wide receiver coach. And he's learned all the little things from him. And he has the work ethic to polish his strengths into finely honed skills. There's a lot of Hines Ward to his game, and he has a strong chance to touch that ceiling.


8. Juaquin Iglesias Oklahoma
6'1" 210 4.44

You want someone to get dirty going over the middle? You want Iglesias. He also has top-notch hands and he can make defenders miss in the short areas of the field. He makes fast cuts and his catch radius? It's very nice. And if necessary? You can stick him on special teams and have him return a punt or a kick or two.

But like Robiskie? His 40-time does not match his actual time. His seperation skills are inconsistent. And he does not have the burst to go vertical. And for a dude this size? Getting himself knocked off the line is not something that you should have happen.

But that being said? He has the potential to be more than a mere posession receiver. A west coast offense will love him. An offense that relies on slants, digs and run after the catch? They will love him. If the Pack didn't have 27 receivers? He'd be a perfect fit.


9. Mohamed Massaquoi Georgia
6'1" 210 4.60

Never mind the timed speed, he has great athleticism and good football speed. He generates a good release, and with sharp route running and an ability to find zone seams? He is excellent at getting open. He is a ready and willing blocker and he does have a good catch radius.

But he has bad hands. It does not matter about production (though with the #1 pick throwing you passes?) and elusiveness after the catch. He has bad hands. Charatcer is not so much of a concern either. HE HAS BAD HANDS!

If he had hands, you could put them up in the Maclin-Bey class of draft. Because in every aspect, he's kind of good. That being said? Some team may be making a mistake here. My thoughts on Matt Stafford are shifting because of the skills of Massaquoi. Unless he learns the ways of Featherstone? He'll be just another Fred Gibson.

Now, receiver sleepers are multiple and plentiful. Trust that I have posted more about these pass catchers. Jarrett Dillard is gonna be a steal. Trust me.

Day 1 Draft Breakdown...Offensive Tackles

This year? Tackle has been a position of interest. There have been three tackles that have been threatening to be picked in the Top 10 with another three that would make picks in the first round. And there are two other tackles that could be drafted in round 2. Would they be the tackles that I've mentioned? That comes later.

Here's what comes now.


1. Eugene Monroe Virginia
6'5" 309 5.18

There's one word to describe Eugene Monroe. Solid. Outside of one aspect? He's good at everything. From his initial burst to driving someone off the ball to his ability to mirror and redirect? There is a lot of NFL-ready to his game. I mean, if he has no-upside? He's already better than at least half of the starting left tackles.

He's inconsistent, but that's something that can be fixed right quick. He does have a waist bend tendency. But that's more of a tired thing than a technique thing. But he does have an issue with reaching the second level. But it is what it is. Minor thing.

Monroe is the most NFL-ready of the tackles in this class. He brings a little bit of everything to the table. If he falls out of the Top 5? He instantly becomes a steal. He's not just safe. He's elite. I mean, there is a certain converted left tackle who was picked in the first round last year named Branden Albert. Monroe kept him inside. Trust in him.


2. Jason Smith Baylor
6'5" 309 5.09

Whereas Eugene Monroe has the highest floor in this draft? Jason Smith's ceiling is spectacular. He arguably the best quickness and agility in a lineman who will be drafted on day 1, but with that comes a pass blocking game that grades pretty highly. He slides and kicks like nobody's business. And while his strength needs some work, he does have the temperament to try and pancake people or drive them out of bounds.

He does have some weaknesses. I made mention of his lack of pure strength. He also had the issue of being in a two-point stance throughout his Baylor career. He does need to be more consistent in his pad level and leverage. That's the one that kind of worries me.

But while Jason Smith is a little more raw, there is absolutely no reason he should fall out of the top five. His athleticism is spectacular, and his character and competiveness means that he can hone his weaknesses. If he gets past Cleveland? Something went wrong.


3. Andre Smith Alabama
6'4" 332 5.28

On the field? He's a mauler. As a run blocker? He's a 10. He blows people off the ball with excellent technique, and he gets to the second level with consumate professionalism. And he can bring something to the table as a pass blocker as well. He allowed one sack in the single greatest conference of all time. It has to count for something.

That said? He did coast on his athleticism at times in college. He does have issues keeping his weight in check. And if you've even been casually following the draft? You know Andre Smith has lost millions by his job interview Epic Fail. The intangibles aren't exactly a major problem? But it may be a thing that shortens his career.

But that being said? His skills remind me a great deal of Bryant McKinnie. A massive left tackle with intangible questions and the ability to wear out his defender? Absolutely. Now, he's still not going to be a top 5 pick. But if he falls past 12? Color me stunned.


4. Michael Oher Ole Miss
6'5" 309 5.34

On raw tools alone? Oher would be a potential #1 pick. He's got the agility and frame to be an all-time great left tackle. And power? He has it in spades. He can anchor and be immovable during a bullrush. He can maul in the run blocking. And in space? He can be solid as well.

Howeva! There is one word that makes you worry. Inconsistent. His motor runs hot and cold and he will be inexplicably beaten every so often. He needs to polish the little things like stance and leverage. He's been well-protected. You know his story by now.

A good offensive line coach could be able to get a lot out of Michael Oher. He doesn't have the intangibles just yet. If you can unlock his mind? You will have an all-pro for a decade. But that's the rub.


5. William Beatty Connecticut
6'6" 307 5.06

Why he's going to be a stealthy good pick at the end of round 1? He's ready made as a pass blocker. He has great athleticism (from mirroring an edge rusher to walling off on the second level). He plays intelligently with good awareness. Most definitely not a cake-eating chardonnay drinker who does not want to get his fingernails dirty.

He's not a great run blocker. He doesn't have great strength and could stand to add some size. He needs to add strength as well. Poor push and poor hand use mean that you would love him in the old zone blocking scheme. But his run technique needs some work.

I believe that Left Tackles will be something that get great draft value. Beatty has all the tools. He's not a great run blocker, but 2010 1st round pick George Selvie got owned by Beatty. Twice. Few people would have Beatty be the best of the second tier. But he is.


6. Eben Britton Arizona
6'6" 309 5.14

He has an excellent frame with good natural strength to it. He has solid technique and understands that he needs to play to the whistle. He's solid in the run game and can move his opponent at present. He's got football smarts and he can become a leader on the offensive line.

But if you want Britton to play on the left side of the line? There are problems with that logic. A speed rusher can handle him. He has average lateral mobility and a slow kickslide. He struggles to adjust to the inside countermoves as well as getting to the second level. And he does have a problem rising out of his stance.

There is not much sex appeal to Eben. He's a solid run blocker straight away. But he's lacking something in his pass pro skills. I'm not saying a team at the end of Round 1 beginning of Round 2 won't get an instant starter? I am just saying that he may need a new position to be a good pro.


7. Phil Loadholt Oklahoma
6'8" 332 5.49

His size is uncoachable. He has a massive wingspan and great power. And he plays with a mean streak that you want. He can run block you to the ground. He also has decent range and athleticism, especially for a big man. Upside? He has it.

But you are not getting a left tackle here. Speed rushers kill him. And as espected for a man his size, he loses his leverage from time to time. The mental game is something that has eluded him as well (Marginal awareness, tendecy to get false starts, stunts and twists can catch him off guard). There are character concerns for him as well.

The thing about Loadholt? Most of his weaknesses can be honed. A good offensive line coach can get a lot out of him. That being said? He's very likely going to have to flip to the power side of the line to get success as a pro.


8. Jamon Meredith South Carolina
6'5" 304 4.99

Remember when I said Jason Smith arguably had the best quickness and agility of someone who would likely get drafted on Day 1? That's because the Michael Jackson Noise is likely to be a second rounder. And if he goes up against a speed rusher? He wins with smarts, fast feet, and solid range. He can get to the second level, and he can prject inside and use his pull skills to his advantage.

But if you ask him to go big on big? No luck here. Poor hand use and a weak punch lead the way to no initial push. He doesn't have that killer instinct that many great lineman have. He doesn't have great awareness either. If you do not have a zone blocking scheme? He's not going to fit.

There is a lot to like about Meredith. There's also a lot to hate. Is he a good fit for a team that leans on zone running while they have a pass/run balance of something like 58/42? Yes. But that is a very specific fit. You may see him overdrafted, and you may see him slide. He's either going to be a solid left tackle, or the soft label that some teams have on him is going to stick.

Honorable Mention?
1. Troy Kropog Tulane (Raw skills, but a patient coach could cull a good starter by year 2-year 3.)
2. Gerald Cadogan Penn State (The big school Troy Kropog.)
3. Fenuki Tenopu Oregon (A straight mauler.)

Day 1 Draft Breakdown...Defensive Ends (and convertibles)

1. Everette Brown Florida State
6'2" 256 4.65

There are two sorts of value that NFL teams will overpay for. One is someone who can play left tackle. The other is for pass-rush ability. And Everette is definitely someone with pass rush skills that rival any prospect this decade. His burst is solid. His moves are spectacular. And when he sees a clear path to the target? He finishes the job.

That being said? If he is to be converted? There will be a curve. His instincts leave something to be desired, even if he has the athleticism to overcome it. And his coverage skills are essentially in drills and pro day. You don't know what he's going to do in game speed.

However? Pass rush skills are good as gold. Any comparison to Dwight Freeney isn't exactly accurate. But you know what? He's a lot more likely to be 85% of Freeney than 15% more than Jamal Reynolds. Believe in it.


2. Brian Orakpo Texas
6'3" 263 4.63

I may not think Brian Orakpo is for everybody, but there is a lot to like about the experience. One, he has the best power of all the Defensive End Convertibles. Two, he also brings a solid array of pass rushing moves. Three, he has a great motor and can hold up at the point of attack on the run.

But here's the deal. He will be a bad 3-4 Linebacker. He does not have a great first step. He has straight line speed, but it's build-up speed. He is stiff and uncomfortable in coverage. And he is not consistent at the point of attack, he does have a narrow frame. Which means, what we've got here is a chance of a tweener.

It's a shaky proposition for the team that drafts Orakpo. I don't think it won't be for a lack of trying if Brian does not hit the big time. He came up big as a senior and it won't mean he'll coast as pro. He's not without some tweener risk, but you aren't going to get a bust here.


3. Aaron Maybin Penn State
6'4" 249 4.78

Remember KGB when he came out? Aaron Maybin is kind of like that. I'll explain. While his timed speed isn't that great? He has a great burst. And he comes with pass rushing moves that rival the best of the skilled. Solid moves, great agility and body control, and he closes like a beast. Get him going and he can get 3 sacks.

But he does not bring much else to the table. He can get shoved off the POA. His instincts and awareness leave something to be desired. And a 250 pound defensive lineman without something else to bring to the table is definitely miscast as a 4-3 defensive end.

Now, I'm not one to take a look at pro fails at a position. Like Tyson Jackson, recent program history does not bode well for Maybin. He's raw, he's a mix of one great strength and multiple weaknesses. Right now, you will be way overpaying for him where his value is perceived. You can get Clint Sintim or Lawrence Sidbury in round 2. He may turn out to be a new Gbaja-Bilamila, but as a Top 15 pick? No. Bad news bears.


4. Tyson Jackson Louisiana State
6'4" 296 4.94

The power of Tyson Jackson is undeniable. He has long arms and giant hands that allow him to use his power when his game is going right. He can hold POA when he's going up against a run. He is tough enough and he can last as a 4-3 DT or a 3-4 Defensive end. He's not sexy, but he is a beast.

But he is a beast with problems. His instincts and awareness is marginal. He has an inconsistent motor. He may hold up at the point of attack, but if you're facing a zone blocking scheme? You need to shed your opponent and Jackson cannot. He's not going to go for 10 sacks either.

Now, I am not one to make claims based on a programs history. Not unless there's reason to believe there's comprable similarities. And like Marcus Spears and Marquise Hill, Jackson has a similar vibe to him. Amazing strength to be sure. But they are missing enough from the table that the team will be disappointed in when they draft him.


5. Jarron Gilbert San Jose State
6'5" 288 4.81

No player has been as fast of a riser as Jarron Gilbert. And it is not without justification. He has superb quickness for a player his size. And he has excellent power. Add to that large hands and good balance and body control? You have someone who deserves his rise from the third round to potentially on the fringes of the Top 20.

But he is not without concerns. He is an imperfect technician, but he can learn things like proper hand use and leverage. That will allow him to be better at shedding blocks. The issue that is a real concern? Gilbert's motor is inconsistent. It can show, but it doesn't happen every day.

But the rise is legitimate. He's not a YouTube video. Not by a longshot. He's not a polished product by any sense of the word, but that being said? If he falls into Round 2, some team is going to be thrilled. Just thrilled.


6. Connor Barwin Cincinnati
6'2" 256 4.59

Some coach is going to love this pick. His athleticism is spectacular. He has great speed with an explosive first step. He has great body control and agility. And for someone with little experience, he has instincts and awareness for the defensive side of the ball. He'll be great on special teams as well.

But there's a certain problem. Obviously, for somebody who had one season as a defensive end and may be moving into a 3-4 linebackers slot? His defense is raw. His pass rush moves are limited, and he can be run at. He also needs to get physically stronger.

Now the comparison here is obvious. He's a Mike Vrabel type. A lot more raw than your standard issue Mike Vrabel, but the upside is spectacular. But as Mike Vrabel became an outside linebacker with pass-catching skills. There is a shot that Barwin becomes a tight end that could generate 5 to 8 sacks in a season.


7. Robert Ayers Tennessee
6'3" 272 4.77

He's a solidly built defensive end with good athleticism. He has a good burst and his balance and body control are well-honed skills as well. He has shown an ability to shed and redirect blockers. He can hold at the point of attack, and he is a solid tackler.

But he does not have a consistent motor. He does not have great timed speed, and his explosiveness is marginal. And if you want a run-stopper as a defensive end? You want someone with better instincts and awareness. And he will not generate sacks if he maintains his present amount of skill.

If you go based on his career? His Day 1 prospect status is dubious at best. But with his solid physicality and big Senior Bowl? It will likely happen. However? His game is not special, and if you take him in round 2? I am willing to wager you may be disappointed.


8. Michael Johnson Georgia Tech
6'7" 266 4.69

The dreamer will love Michael Johnson. He has the frame of a Stacey Augmon (which means long and lanky with an ability to disrupt passing lanes). His athleticism is special. Great speed, great agility, great ups, great burst. As a pass rusher? He can put the fear of God into an offensive coordinator.

But the question is? Does he want this. His motor runs cold and cold. He has very poor insctints and awareness. You can run your run game right through his spot. And average offensive linemen can shut him down if he's not feeling up to it.

On body alone? Michael Johnson is a top five pick. But the fact that even Mel Kiper thinks he's unworthy of a first round pick shows that there's real concern about the brain. I'm not saying a good defensive coordinator can't make success with him? I'm only saying he's going to need to go to a good home, because there's a disconnect between potential and skills.


9. Paul Kruger Utah
6'4" 263 4.83

Kruger does not have one aspect of his game that he's dominant in outside of motor, but he has a lot of solid in his style. Athleticism, he's solid. Balance and body control? Solid. Power? Solid. Hand use? Solid. See, you get my point.

But there are concerns. He doesn't have great speed and the hip flipability to convert to a 3-4 OLB. He has short arms, which mean a lineman can get him. Also? He does not have great leverage. Also, he is a bit overaged and injury prone with a lack of experience.

There's something to be said for being solid in many aspects of your game. He has solid physical tools and while his technique is raw? His motor will allow him to hang in at the start of his career while he polishes his game. As a 2nd rounder, he's a fine pick, but his lack of sexy may drop him to the third. And that would make him great value.


10. Lawrence Sidbury Jr. Richmond
6'3" 266 4.53

With the triangle numbers? You know that Sidbury has superb athleticism. He has a first step and burst for the pass rush. He also has the hands and arms to avoid getting a lineman into his chest. He also has great mobility and range. And as last years 1-AA National Championship showed? He plays big in the big games.

That being said? He doesn't always play to his timed speed. And he is an inch or two shorter than what you want for the defensive end position. He does not have much to a power game, and if a lineman does get his hands on him? There's not much chance Sidbury will shed.

However? While he is a little bit of a workout warrior, there's no reason to be disappointed if your team drafts him. He has a great motor, great athleticism, and his spin move is restaurant quality. His mobility and range mean he could be a solid 3-4 OLB, but he could Elvis Dumervil himself as an official 4-3 DE.


11. Larry English Northern Illinois
6'2" 255 4.82

Am I underrating Larry English? It is entirely possible. He has a high-powered motor and a nice array of pass-rushing moves. He blows people up when he hits them. He has good strength, and he's not a guaranteed loss at the point of attack if he's facing down a double team.

The problem? He does not look like he can translate to a 3-4 OLB. He has stiff hips and meager instincts in coverage. He does not have good time speed, and in space he does look lost. Also? A torn pec, an ankle injury, a torn ACL, and a broken hand does not bode well on the injury history question.

I just get the sense that he doesn't have the frame to get himself to 270 pounds and stay with his athleticism. I mean, he does have heart. He does have power. But if you draft him as another Anthony Spencer type, you just don't see the flaws of Larry English.

Time considerations don't allow me to post the day 2 dudes I like. But two more positions to come.

Who will move on moving day.

The third round of the Masters is always when the wheat and chaff go their seperate ways. Now, I know everything. Not really, but I saw today's golf among the awkwardness of having my first and middle names shared by the degenerate who killed Adenhart and then joy of the Brewers winning in the 9th.

So who will move? I will tell you.

Chad Campbell: Every three years, Chad Campbell gets a top 3. (2003 PGA, 2006 Masters.) He seems switched on. If he loses out on a top 3 this year, it will be a bad weekend.
Kenny Perry: Five top tens, one championship for Perry this year so far. Ten top tens and four wins since June 1st last year. Nothing on this sort of stage, but Kenny Perry is hot.
Angel Cabrera: He's had a good history of solid Masters preformances. When he's on, he's shown himself to be a consistent player. He throws another 68 down? You have to like his odds on getting the green jacket.
Todd Hamilton: This will be like Ben Curtis in last year's PGA Championship. I see a valiant effort that falls just short on Sunday. He will prove himself not a fluke.
Tim Clark: I want to discount him, but you can't completely discount him. He did spend 2006 on the fringes of contention throughout the Masters. He may not win? But he won't be shook off of the leaderboard.
Anthony Kim: You're reticent to say yes he can. He dropped a 65 today. But he has run some 66-66, 66-67's in two rounds in a row. You're ready to discount him, but don't.
Rory Sabbatini: Nah. He does have a tie for second in 2007 to his credit, but that was on a Sunday after being four shots back. Also, he's a dick.
Shingo Katayama: The sartorial splender has led to one. One top five finish in a major! Ah ah ah! Seriously, sweet hat dude.
Jim Furyk: He scuffled badly on the back 9 today. But anyone who has been in contention for multiple US Open's has the mental toughness to overcome such mishagoes.
Sergio Garcia: As much as it would be hilarious for Taylor Made to lose out on so much money if he gets the green jacket, it likely won't happen. He can break out a 66 on Saturday, but then Sunday would be a problem.
Steve Stricker: Stricker has had a history of being on the fringes and cusps of contention on the final day of many majors. And then he falls off the cliff. Let him go.
Hunter Mahan: Every year in every major, someone has an awesome first day and then falls off the cliff. Meet the guy to completely disregard.
Nick Watney: Three top fives this season. He may not be able to put up a 67, but if the pack starts falling? He can sneak in and take advantage.
Stephen Ames: Never really a man who's finished strong at the Masters. Last year a similar start birthed a 75-75 finish. I can see it happening again.
Henrik Stenson: Finished third last week, two top fives in his last two majors. But he's 6 back. It's a bridge too far.
Geoff Ogilvy: Ogilvy plays big in big tournaments. But he wins when everybody falls back to the pack. Thus, I can't see him make a big move forward.
Vijay Singh: Yeah, Vijay Singh can roll out with a 66. And his worst finish this decade in Agusta was a tie for 18th place. But he's not a guy who's going to steal the Masters. He's 46 for fuck sake.
Phil Mickelson: He went crazy on the back 9. He has three top 10's in his last four tournaments. I'm not saying Lefty will be hefty. But don't be surprised if he rolls up on you with 68-68. May not be enough, but he'll be all ESPN talks abouts.
John Merrick: The Elephant man has the smell of a journeyman on him. Not to say that he can't climb the leaderboard, but a 74 off a 68 doesn't make me feel to confident about it.
Aaron Baddeley: Baddeley does not have the stench of journeyman on him. But the tools have not coalesced into skills just quite yet. And a 74 off a 68? Bad juju.
Graeme McDowell: Six bogeys on the back nine preclude a limit on just how far and how fast they can move. Thanks for playing.
Tiger Woods: Obviously, he can break out a 64 and change everything. But when his precision seems off, it doesn't happen. So not this year.
Sandy Lyle: Nice run today, but he's not going to be worth CBS' time or inclination. He's over 50. They can't catch lightning in a bottle.
Dustin Johnson: Now, I admit he looks like a generic golfer generated for people to lazy to create their own freak on Tiger Woods. But he has good tools. It doesn't look like he'll come close. But never mind the bollocks.
Lee Westwood: Westwood is a grinder. He won't get phased if he hits a double bogey. But he's not exactly the sort of guy who can break out a 64 and change everything. Top 20. Top 10 maybe, but he won't be on the cusp of the green jacket.
Padraig Harrington: He got a stroke of bad luck on 16, and whether or not you believe in the validity of the ruling, it affected him. He can bounce back. And if he is three shots back? Watch out.
Camilo Villegas: The odds are long. But Villegas has had the once a month performance where he hits the top 5. That's what I'd expect later. It's too far for him.

So who wins? Here's my top 5.

1. Kenny Perry
2. Angel Cabrera
3. Chad Campbell
4. Anthony Kim
5. Todd Hamilton and Tim Clark in a tie.

So yeah. Kind of boring right?

SUCKERS!

DREW!

The NL West is Easy

It's the Dodgers division. Never mind the fact that Chad Billingsley is hurt. The offense is just too good. I mean really. If the only player that you don't know in the starting line-up as you go off the cuff is the second baseman. (Blake DeWitt?) You have enough to get the NL West.

Why? Because outside of the outside chance that the Diamondbacks have to win if Max Scherzer can do well, there is no one else. It's already a two team league. The Giants have a rotation where four starters are from awesome to intriguing. But they just have no offense.

The Rockies are a team that does seem spry. They have some youth energy in their offense. If two of Chachin, De La Rosa, and Jiminez put it together? They can make a charge at this.

And the only thing that is interesting about the Padres? If and when Jake Peavy gets traded.

In the NL East?

The world will be shocked. Surprise lives here. I am going to go out on a limb and say something that can look really stupid. But it won't. I hope. Take a gulp and join me.

1. Florida (Yes. How many teams have four starters that seem healthy right now and shown a broad base of skills? A stiff like Mark Hendrickson is going to be nowhere near the rotation. And they will have a closer that won't get hurt. Yay injury luck! Also? Cameron Maybin.)
2. New York Mets (But here's the twist. They won't be leading on September 1st. The race will be close, they just won't have the horses in the rotation. And the farm system can't get them a stud in July. That being said? They actually will make the playoffs.)
3. Philadelphia (Like the Cubs? There's some real injury risks in the rotation. The team is very similar to last year, but bad luck will poke holes in their season. 85-77 lives here.)
4. Atlanta (This is a team, that if it stays perfectly healthy? It can contend. The issue is that they have Chipper Jones, and the end of a bullpen in an open relationship with the disabled list. Thus they won't.)
5. Washington (Meh. I want to see Dimitri Young, Lastings Milledge, and Elijah Dukes go on a series of wacky adventures more than play baseball. They could help Camp Minnehaha beat the rich kids camp because their science too tight. It would be worth more than 72 wins.)

The AL West Projections...

This looks ugly. I remember I said that 87 wins will take the NL Central. But every AL West team has holes. Every team can win.

Well, not every team. Texas may end up last, but they may only be four or five games out.

1. Anaheim (No Teixera. Ervin Santana's elbow is balky. If you're depending on Kelvim Escobar? You're in deep trouble. 84-78 can win the division.)
2. Oakland (There's going to be a moral dilemma here. Orlando Cabrera as a signing is something of a stopgap that will keep them close. But they have a staff that's too young to get them something for Matt Holliday.)
3. Seattle (The rotation will be fine. The defensive will be much improved. But the offense is not close to average yet.)
4. Texas (Kevin Millwood has a walk year. But their #2 is worse than Adam Eaton. They will lose a lot of games 11-8.)

Here's how I see the NL Central.

I have had a nyumber in my head about the NL Central. 87. I get the sense that it will be a muddy, dirty mess. I get the sense that three teams have an excellent shot and maybe the Reds can steal it. But I expect some wag will call this the comedy central.

And I will regret Parks and Recreation's first season for it.

1. St. Louis (Closers are made and not born, and after all that mishagoes from last season? The bullpen will be okay. Eric Ludwick is not going to drop off too terribly. Their rotation will be fine even if Carpenter isn't. And if Glaus plays 130-135 games? They've got this division.)
2. Milwaukee (The offense will come together. I believe. But they need Capuano to come back at his 2006-2007 level when he returns to get a chance to be all the way live. I know that we don't need Ben Sheets. But right now our rotation is too questionable for me to be all, first LOL!)
3. Chicago (Yeah, if the rotation stays healthy? They'll be strong enough to win the division by a few games. But my gut says that there's a strong chance of having two out of Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, and Rich Harden missing extended time. Not to mention the novelty injury from Milton Bradley. They prove that wrong? They love again in October.)
4. Cincinnati (The greatest comparison I ever made was Dusty Baker as Danny Bonaduce. His old school insanity means Cueto and Volquez get broke. This is why they don't succeed.)
5. Houston (All that effort gutting what was left of a dead farm system. All this team really has is Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt. I mean, who are you going to trust? Michael Bourn? Girl please.)
6. Pittsburgh (Not to be too much of a hater. I sympathize with a team that's in peril. And there is potential in a 1-2 punch of Ian Snell and Paul Maholm. But they don't have enough offense. Not even close.)

Twenty-five things that will happen in Baseball this season...

I am feeling two moods, a mood for lists and a mood for projection... This is where the obvious headline comes into play. 25 things that will happen in baseball Ready, steady, go.

1. There will be a rush of Type A Free Agents after the June draft.

Compensation has been an issue. As an example, the Brewers had been interested in Juan Cruz before the C.C. Sabathia clusterfuck. But outside of maybe Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson, and Manny Ramirez. And they may not even make it. It is what it is.

2. The St. Louis Cardinals will win the NL Central.

And 87 games will be enough to take it down.

3. Adam Dunn will have a higher OPS than Manny Ramirez.

4. Carlos Villanueva will be the best set-up man in baseball...

If Trevor Hoffman doesn't fail as a closer.

5. B.J. Upton will be the ginchiest of trade prospects for your Fantasy Baseball team.

He had shoulder surgery. This means his average and power totals will likely be lower in the first half. But a .300/10/45/20/50 sort of a second half? Is gold.

6. Curtis Granderson will go for a 30/30 season this year.

He is still underrated. He's the Grady Sizemore of underrated Center Fielders.

7. The Royals will contend. Seriously.

Or Alex Gordon will be dead by Kyle Farnsworth's hand.

8. The Rays will fall back to Earth.

To be a good surprise, you need to win the World Series the shocker season. See the 93 Phillies, the 2007 Tigers, and other teams not named the 1991 Atlanta Braves. My gut says 4th.

9. Nelson Cruz will not be Geronimo Berroa with steals.

And isn't Brandon Boggs starting?

10. Outside the Lines will have a month of programs on Alex Rodriguez.

And Bob Ley will continue to be haunted by the ghost of Tom Mees.

11. Jake Peavy will not be traded.

12. The most valuable player on the Diamondbacks? Yusemiro Petit.

Max Scherzer probably doesn't have more than 150 IP in him. And Doug Davis has control problems. The long reliever is huge.

13. David Price will be the AL Rookie of the Year

I don't hate Wieters. But catchers as rookies is a meme that you really can't trust. I like LaPorta to have a Ryan Braunish on the Indians in Left after they realize that Ben Fransisco isn't a full-timer.

14. Miguel Cabrera will be the largest player traded.

Both in name and in actual size. Get him in a hitters park and he may have a 30 homer half of baseball. .320/30/70? YES!

15. The Philadelphia Phillies will take a flier on a name starter recovering from an injury.

Expect a Mark Mulder of some sort to boo. But Brett Myers is a real and true injury risk. And you do not want Adam Eaton as your 6th starter in peril.

16. The Homer Bailey watchers will remain disappointed.

17. Cameron Maybin will be your NL Rookie of the Year

It's a wide-open race, but Maybin has the opportunity to break out for a big lead. Maybe if the Brewers open up a slot they have a chance.

18. Wandy Rodriguez will be a stud for the next five years...

Lefty pitchers have later primes. Remember that.

19. Sadly, the Twins will not get Joe Crede.

If Morneau gets hurt, they will be in last place. (They may collapse even if Morneau has a normal year.)

20. The Yankees will sign Jim Edmonds.

Okay not really. But they should sign him. He's better than Melky, and if Hank Steinbrenner wasn't so irrational in trade negotiations? They would have a center fielder who doesn't blow.

21. Joey Devine will get 45 saves.

22. Matt Capps will be the Pirates lone all-star.

23. The Giants will make a move for someone who isn't a past their prime veteran.

Joe Crede IS a never was and not a has been!

24. Someone will name a blog after Seattle First Baseman Bryan LaHair.

25. The Brewers will sign Brandon Looper.

And hope for the best.

Now, while Barack Obama's Presidency...

Is something that we as a nation are going to find themselves excited and inspired by. But you know who this matter is going to touch more than anyone? The New Jersey Institute of Technology Men's Basketball Team.

Yeah. The team that just can't get a win. But that is subject to change. Come January 21st? The winds of change will shift. The Highlanders will control the tempo. And there will be a window of opportunity for them to string a win or two together.

They've done well at controlling the pace. Get a home game or two in their bellies?

Streaks are going to end.