Tuesday, November 2, 2010

TCU-UTAH prediction?

Sure, I'm game for this. This is the sort of game that seems like it's going to come down to one thing. Both sides are pretty evenly matched. Tremendous offense versus Tremendous defense. Both teams have strong running games and both teams can stop the run.

Both teams can stop the pass. Both teams put up over 40 points and allow about 9-14 points per game. Both teams allow about 4 yards per play and generate about 7. Neither team has given up more than 5 sacks.

The one difference? Turnovers. Utah has a propensity to give them up. It's not as if they're at a -8 or anything. And it's not as if TCU is really great at generating them either. But, this needs further explanation. Like who played who and what not.

And here's where the other difference comes in. While neither team has a schedule to write home about, there is a stark difference in terms of the quality of play these teams have faced in terms of Yards Per Play Margin.

Point of fact, outside of the top 4, the Mountain West is really terrible this year. But while Pittsburgh is the best team that Utah played, and played entirely too closely I might add. Baylor and SMU both are giving it just as well as they are getting it this year, and while Oregon State's not going anywhere of consequence, their opening game versus TCU was them at the peak of their powers.

Jordan-Echols is going to be worth about 4 points for Utah. But TCU's toughness and that one Utah Mistake are going to be worth about 14. It'll be a tight one. But TCU is going to hang on. TCU 17, Utah 13. 

No comments: