Tuesday, January 4, 2011

NFL Playoff Preview. Sure. I'll do it.

I'm not a gambling man, I don't have a spectacular manifesto in regards to the way to figure a playoff victory. But that being said? There are three major aspects to my figuring out a team's strength in general versus an opponent. The margin of yards per play versus yards allowed, scoring margin, and the takeaways, plus or minus turnover margin.

The results show some surprises, but nothing too indefensible. He's how I'd rank the teams in regards to power.

1) Pittsburgh
2) New England
3) Green Bay
4) Philadelphia
5) New York Jets
6) Atlanta
7) New Orleans
8) Baltimore
9) Kansas City/ Chicago (tie)
11) Indianapolis
12) Seattle

So what does this all mean?

1) I would put money on the Packers or Eagles winning the NFC Championship.

Granted, the Packers do have a bit of a fundamental flaw in regards to a consistent desire to run the ball. But even then, they went down to Atlanta and nearly took them down. And the fact of the matter is that the Falcons are a team that can be thrown on. A team that gets a lead on them makes them a definite upset victim.

2) Seattle is as bad as everybody expected.

I know that New Orelans is coming there. And if Matt Hasselbeck can go? Seattle will cover. But if I was football outsiders or something, I would go back and look through the lowest scoring margin of all playoff teams. Why? Because the Seahawks have given up six points more per game than they've scored.

Think about this another way? The next worst team in this playoffs is nine points better than the Seattle in scoring margin. New Orelans isn't a great team this year. But they'll win.

3) I've got to respect Peyton Manning.

I still don't like him that much. But if you consider how good this team has been this year? Peyton worked a miracle getting this team in. If they beat the Jets? That's a great season. Flat out.

4) My Pick for the Super Bowl?

Green Bay and New England in a return match from the game of the year.

5) My Picks for this Week?

Baltimore 20, Kansas City 17
New York Jets 27, Indianapolis 24
Green Bay 35, Philadelphia 34
New Orelans 28, Seattle 20

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