Wednesday, February 24, 2010

The ACC in a Bubble Scenario.

Who's in? Duke. They're locked in. Nothing you can do about it but root against them.

Who's just about? Maryland. Even if they win one of their last four? It's 10 ACC wins with solid computer numbers. Nothing wrong with that. Virginia Tech. The strength of schedule sucks and they have no marquee win if the wheels fall off. But with North Carolina State and Boston College on the schedule? 23 wins and 10 ACC wins probably will not be denied. Wake Forest. A disaster of a loss to North Carolina state would be all but forgotten with wins at home versus North Carolina and Clemson. Florida State. The schedule sets up nicely. Wake Forest and Clemson? Those are the home games. Miami and North Carolina? Those are the road games. 3-1 is enough.

On the Bubble? Clemson. I can see how you'd say they should be up a level. Several decent wins and they have no truly indefensible loss. Illinois has a legitimate shot at 12 Big Ten wins. That's Tournament right there. But road games at Maryland, Florida State and Wake Forest do not bode well. And don't forget that Georgia Tech is in the danger zone as well. They will need to go to Littlejohn fighting for their lives.

And speaking of the Bees? They should beat Boston College. But they may be going into a home game with Virginia Tech needing a win to get to 8-8. And Virginia Tech is never a gimme.

The ACC will likely get six bids. Maybe seven. Well, if you look at the scenarios. The Pac-10 is only getting two teams. The Mountain West is only getting two teams. And the A-10? Any talk of six bids was surely exaggerated. Dayton is looking like they're gonna have to steal to get in the tournament.



No comments: