It's pretty well locked in. Kansas is going to be a #1 seed, It's just going to happen. Kansas State has been impressive all year, and they should enjoy a two seed as a reward for it.
Likely in barring a complete collapse? Missouri still has to make a swing through the Kansas', but you know what? 10 Big 12 wins and an RPI above 40 is an invitation to the dance, no matter if you lost to Oral Roberts. Texas had a bad month. But road games at Texas A&M and Baylor are good enough for seeding. Win one of those? It's locked in. Baylor has two near gimmes, and that would get them to 10 wins. But with an RPI/SOS of 12/19? You could say that they're locked in. Speaking of Texas A&M? The RPI/SOS is 18/6. If they win one more game? That should be enough.
The official bubble team? Oklahoma State. They really have no indefensible loss. The RPI and SOS reside in the mid-30's. They did beat Kansas State in Manhattan, and that's nice. But they would need to either take Kansas or Texas A&M to avoid needing a tournament win.
Then again? With only five at large teams from non Big six conferences right now? (Richmond, Rhode Island, Xavier, BYU, and UAB*.) Oklahoma State probably has nothing to worry about.
*And UAB still has to make a run with Memphis and at UTEP. Not safe yet.