The Green Bay Packers Select...James Starks (RB-Buffalo)

There's a distinct possiblity that we have found the heir apparent if Starks can stay healthy. What we have here is a tough inside runner who was good enough to get 34+ receptions in the three years he was healthy. 52 grabs in his junior year. He can be a third down back straight away who can stun you on a draw. He was hyperproductive when healthy and hat two years of 250+ carries.

He's not a make you miss sort of a runner in the open field. But he's a try hard blocker in pass pro. But like I said before. The Packers have found the heir apparent if Starks can stay healthy.

Troy Williamson: Really?

I can't believe that I'm going to blog about this. The post-hype sleeper is almost non-existent in fantasy football. You get your shot, and you miss? You don't get the second chance to make a first impression. Well, unless your name is Thomas Jones.

Or Troy Williamson?

It's not as insane as you would think. Sleepers are all about skills, means, and opportunity. And with the 350th injury to Mike Walker? Suddenly, Troy Williamson has a second chance to make a first impression.

But will he? The reason why he was fail in Minnesota was because he had problems catching the ball. Now, I'm sure some of this was based on problems tracking the ball in flight. But are we going to see him suddenly struggle again? I mean, the Jags love their rookies.

This is actually a must-watch scenario. You're looking at him as a strictly last round thing. But oddly enough, he's got a chance of glory. And isn't that what you want? A speedburner with upside? I'd say so.

The Undervalued...(ADP Rounds 8-11)

I guess I'm gonna roll up on you with a series. Undervalued from their average draft position. Guys to snap up when the time comes. Not so much sleepers, but sleeper like substances.

Note: I will throw in a defense from the 12-16th round. Especially after Stewart Bradley's ACL injury, this defense has real sleeper value.

QB: David Garrard (10.06 ADP)

There's never much of the Cansei De Ser Sexy with David Garrard. He's never been a stud QB. Somewhere between 10th and 12th place. That's where Garrard lives, though in fairness he hasn't had much to throw to. And for a 10th round pick? It's great value. That being said? There's reason to hope. With Tra Thomas and the draft picks of Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton, you have to figure the offensive line will be stronger than last year.

The receiving corps? It's not without it's upside. Torry Holt could be in line for a renaissance, but his knee is shaky. Mike Walker held off Brandon Marshall in college, but his knees love to shear the ligaments off the bone. But you want to know the strange thing? The Jaguars love all three wideouts that they've drafted. I personally love Jarrett Dillard, but do not sleep on the burner that is Mike Wallace or Tiquan Underwood.

So, what you have here is a fringe starter with tremendous upside.

RB: Ray Rice (8.11 ADP), Earnest Graham (9.10 ADP)

I love Ray Rice. He's a fringe RB2 who could explode. If he gets 300 carries it's 1200 yards and 8 scores (with another 35-40 points as a receiver). It's likely going to be a RBBC scenario. But as it stands? He'll probably get 900 yards rushing, 300 yards receiving, and 8 total scores. Not as sure that he'll be the consistent 20 carry guy.

Earnest Graham is probably going to be the 35-40% of the carries guy in the RBBC that Tampa's going to have if it all breaks right. Will he get the majority of the run on the goal line? Remains to be seen. But you know what? Ward's got a streak of the injury prone in him. And all Mr. Graham does is run with grit and guts. For 9th round ADP, he could steal his way into a Top 20 numbers.

WR: Donnie Avery (8.05 ADP), Domenik Hixon (11.06 ADP)

There are three schools of thought on Donnie Avery. One, he's going to be someone in the Lee Evans school of tantalizing but ultimately disappointing with multiple seasons as a overdrafted bust. Two, he's going to be like Bernard Berrian or Santana Moss as a boom-bust candidate who will run with a 6-181-3, 1-5, 3-161-2, 2-12 series of games. Or three, could he be Greg Jennings? Well, could he be a strong WR2?

I say to that yes. He kind of has a Steve Smith skill set. He's supercharged with speed, and you see him developing the ability to take the slant pattern to the barn. They've done work refurbishing the line, and they don't have anyone else. I believe. He's got 75-1100-8 in his stride.

As for Hixon? You're looking at a potential #1 receiver who did well in replacing a seemingly untenable situation. He dropped a TD in the playoff game and with Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks, you're seeing Giants fans sleep on Hixon. Smith is a valid safety valve, and Nicks does have hands of glue. But someone needs to run the twenty yard out pattern and go up and get it. Bet on Hixon.

TE: Zach Miller (10.12 ADP), John Carlson (9.07 ADP), Dustin Keller (11.02 ADP)

These three tight ends are similar. All are young. All will likely get the number of targets that are commiserate with a wide receiver. All are going into year two or year three. And you're going to see at least one of them go off.

Zach Miller's been the lone dependable part of the Raiders passing game. While he inexplicably had one target last season when the Raiders were in a pure goal line situation? He ended up with 86 targets. Goal line trust waxes and wanes, he's going to get 60 catches and 800 yards either way. It's only a matter of how many scores he gets.

Ironically, considering his ADP anyway, drafting John Carlson is the trickiest proposition. You are not going to see near the attrition that you have seen last year with the Seahawks passing game. But here's the thing, Burleson has disappeared for seasons at a time and Branch has a horrid injury history. Carlson's downside is stagnation. But watch to see who gets the ball in the first quarter.

Rookie quarterbacks are scary. Never mind last seasons rosterability of Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. Rookies are scary. But rookies love the safety valve. And while Jerricho Cotchery will not see his targets drop by any stretch? Most of the missing 120 targets that went to Coles last season are going to go to Dustin Keller.

But here's why Keller is the most likely of these tight ends to breakout. He is the best mix of athleticism and receiving skills that the Jets have. He's going to lose linebackers and overpower safeties. They will gameplan for him, but he's a strong style force.

Def: Green Bay (14.06 ADP)

This may be the insane ramblings of a crazy person. But you look at Dom Capers, and you see a guy who brought three defenses up to speed with great rapidity. And you actually have defensive pieces in Green Bay that were pretty good in 2007, and only had trouble when the glue guy that is Cullen Jenkins went down. Capers generates sacks and stops scores. It's bingo. Considering the torn ACL that we've already seen from Stewart Bradley? Hear me now and believe me later. The Green Bay Packers will be a top 5 defense.

NBA Draft Dumpster Diving...The Fours.

Image by jeffbalke via Flickr

To complete my sleeper hunt series in the NBA draft, I will take a look at the fours. In which I will break the walls down and show you the four archetypes of the potential sleeper power forward, and fit most of them in the box. There's a couple of dudes who break the frames. They will be broken down further.

1) The Chuck Hayes.

The Chuck Hayes is the man who provides undersized boards and blocks and a grit and determination that will lead old school people who hate sports to think they are the greatest thing since sliced bread. But since Chuck Hayes didn't lead the Rockets to beat the Lakers? Not so much.

Potential Chuck Hayes?
Jeff Adrien UConn
Diamon Simpson St. Mary's
Tony Gaffney UMass

Variant Cover: Chuck Hayes
Chris Johnson LSU (Because while he does have the required height to be a 4, dude's positively Keith Closs in terms of frame.)
Jon Brockman Washington (He can make a living off of the second chance basket for all of the rebounds that he can generate.)

Personally, some team somewhere is going to find a lot of use for Simpson. His strength is in generating defensive chaos. And if a seemingly out there pick like Luc Mbah a Moute can have success based on the Chuck Hayes ethic? I can see Simpson surprising someone as a relatively high draft choice.

2) The Tyrus Thomas

You have seen moments of the explosive with a player like this, but they live in the phylum of "run and jump energy guy." They have all the upside in the world, but one in a hundred scratch the surface of their tools. But if they are European and you have a late second round pick? It may be worth paying the cost.

Potential Tyrus Thomas?
Vitor Faverani Brazil
Alade Aminu Georgia Tech
Henk Norel Spain

The slight variants to Tyrus Thomas lead to a whole new archetype. The last two sentences of this archetpe preclude me from talking to you about the Euro-Brazilians. (Though Faverani could roll up and be great when he's ready to hit stateside.) But Alade? Alade was in a system that criminally miused his talents. He's a guy who can murder you in a pick and roll system. Paul Hewitt didn't use the system by any stretch.

3) The Drew Gooden

The variant to the Tyrus Thomas is the Drew Gooden. Why? Because while Tyrus Thomas has the greatness in moments, Gooden will show off with the great games. He will also have the games of the 4 points and 5 rebound set. Inconsistency is the watchword with a Drew Gooden type. The spirit song for their coaches? Something from REO Speedwagon. Riding the Storm Out is too on the nose.

Potential Drew Goodens?
Leo Lyons Missouri

The Variant Cover Drew Goodens
Brandon Costner N.C. State
Nemanja Aleksandrov Russia

The variant cover is for the player who had a sustained fit of brilliance, but with either circumstance (Costner) or injury (Aleksandrov) making what they once were something that may never some back again. You likely are never going to see these two make the league. But a baseball principle still applies here. Once a player shows a skill, it does not disappear.

4) The Kurt Thomas

The jack of all trades and master of none. These guys bring a little of a lot to the table. Their love of How Stella Got Her Groove Back may vary, but their massive array of solid does not wax or wane. The upside? They'll be solid starters for six seasons, and character bench guys for a decade thereafter.

Potential Kurt Thomas?
Kevin Rogers Baylor
Gary Wilkinson Utah State
Ahmad Nivins St. Joesph's
Dante Cunningham Villanova
Taj Gibson USC
Jeff Pendergraph Arizona State

Obviously, this list is in order from least likely to most likely. Not to say that I don't like Kevin Rogers. I mean, he was Jeff Pendergraph as Jeff Pendergraph was being Jeff Pendergraph, I'm merely saying that Rogers or Ahmad Nivins won't get the shot that a Taj Gibson would. And that's kind of malaise inducing. Kind of.

Anyway, this leaves a couple of prospects who have enough of a potential interest that they fit into a different sort of archetype. Or may be able to graduate from it.

We start with...

Derrick Brown Xavier
6'7" 225

He's got a skill set more along the lines of a Michael Redd when he graduated from Ohio State than your average power forward. After all, you're looking at a man who really does not have a defesive position right now. His strength is in his length and atleticism. And why I'm comparing him to Michael Redd is because his offense isn't there yet, but it's developing. I mean, he did hit 43% of all his threes. If he keeps practicing he will make the above-average occasional All-Star tier on a bad team and become overpaid.

DeMarre Carroll Missouri
6'8" 225

He probably belongs in the Tyrus Thomas phylum. Moments of brilliance in a high energy package. But you know what? You have a very active defender. He used his system to be as chaotic as a Gerald Wallace/Josh Smith bringer of chaos. But he also takes good care of the ball and can hit a jumper. This may just be my gut instinct. The whole hear me now and believe me later sort of a deal. But I think he will bring swagger. I think people will sing hosannas about his skills.

This is a draft class that's going to surprise you. I can see sleepers for miles and miles. I went a little different here because it's all good. The circle of sleeper hunt is complete.

Please read me.

Jerel McNeal: The second round pick who could steal hearts and minds...

Now, in the search for making a series? I found something out. There’s not much for the two guard. Really. I mentioned Jack McClinton. And I believe he’s going to be good.

But you know what? Jerel McNeal will be great. He will be drafted in the second round, and he will have seasons where, at the very least, Free Darko will sing his praises.

Why? I will break it down simply. Succintly.

1) His game is all-around golden.

Let me tell you what Jerel McNeal needs to work on. Off-ball defense. That’s it. Anything else is nitpicking. He hits the three, with a solid mid-range game. He passes well for a two-guard. He locks down his man. You want more?

2) The steal/foul didatic.

In a way? The steal is kind of like the NBA’s version of the strike zone. Or the stolen base. Look. It’s nice to have a guy who can get three steals per game. But if they get in foul trouble? They’re as useless as Alvin Robertson.

Jerel McNeal went from a freshman that gambled entirely too much to a senior who, while he does not have a red number under his fouls committed on Kenpom.com, has become at the very least competent at avoiding foul trouble because he gets too grabby.

3) Intangibles.

You want a college basketball player with a motor. Someone who can’t get fired up when he’s doing it for free will be even more of a dog when he turns pro. You have a 6′3″ two-guard who’s had to defend some of the best in basketball and developed a reputation as a stopper. You have a 6′3″ two-guard who’s just started to create his own shot with a general aplomb.

Put it this way. If he was 6′6″, he’d be threating to kiss the lottery. If he was 6′6″? He would not shock the world. But people are going to sleep on Jerel McNeal.

But I’m not. He’s going to win.

Pat White? Top 5 Quarterback Prospect?

It's not as strange as you think. After all? Pat White suddenly has skills that you're able build a dream on. He has an official listing of 6'0", which contextually means everything. His 40-time is listed at 4.49, but we already knew that. He was a productive, if not injury-prone quarterback at West Virginia.

But why would he be listed as a Top 5 Quarterback? Because with a ridiculously bad quarterback class, when you're a major college quarterback who's in the process of showing something new? You can climb the ladder rapidly. Break it down, you say, and I will.

One, Pat White was able to look comfortable in the pocket as a quarterback during the Senior Bowl game. He's spectacular at throwing the ball on the run, but he showed the raw tools to be a McNabbian dropback quarterback in the future.

Two, in a world that can shake your top prospects, (Matt Stafford, Andre Smith) he has shown himself to be able to rise up to the challenges of the NFL Combine. You can read thoughts from Don Banks or Mike Mayock, but suffice it to say, Pat White isn't a speedy dude with a rag arm. It doesn't mean he can be a good pro, and your Pat White may yet have to move to a different position, but in a world where the white Andre Woodson was your putative 6th quarterback prospect coming into the combine?

It can shoot somebody up the ladder.

And three? All things being equal, Pat White's weaknesses seem less glaring. Rhett Bomar and Nate Davis are both quarterbacks who lack a certain amount of polish to their passing game. So too Pat White. Bomar also has a little longer list of an injury history than Pat White. And Bomar also got thrown out on his ass at Oklahoma.

I'm not saying that you need to look for him in the middle of round 2? All I'm saying is if you get up at 10 am on April 26th and find that you're in the Pat White business?

Don't be shocked.

Can Eduardo Morlan make the leap?

Because based on the talent of his arm? He could make the 9th a Cuban Missile Crisis in comparison to the Royals Mexocutions. Why? Because Eduardo has a plus fastball that can get up to 97 MPH. And his slider? When it's working? It's an out pitch.

The problem is? It wasn't working spectacular when he hit the Southern League. Not to say he went to crap, but he went from spectacular to merely good. And in his defense? The Southern League has always been rich in offense.

However? Rule V means he doesn't get to work for a month in AAA to get his swagger on. And that means perfection has a slim margin of error. But you know what? It's a good sleeper.

I love you sleeper talk!

When Edwin Jackson is good?

He can be very good. But before this year? Edwin Jackson spent about three or four years in the wilderness. He may have found some semblance of his stride and was able to show some production to meet his potential. And he is still just 24.

But Matt Joyce? Matt Joyce has a little bit of the sleeper to his skills. He played very well in his first half-season in Detroit. He will stike out about 120 times in a season. But his offensive game is very nice. 35 doubles, 25 homers, a passable eye with a slugging percentage that can threaten .500 is magical and rad.

And he can play center field for if and when the Rays tire of B.J. Upton's saucy antics. Could he turn into Mark Kotsay? It's possible. But Matt Joyce's floor is a lot higher than Mr. Jackson's.

Edwin Jackson may turn into a poor man's D-Train.

You want this year's Ryan Grant?

Over at Epic Carnival? I'll tell my sleeper. My deep sleeper.

If you promise to click the link, I promise to remind you when you need to pick him up roto dudes.

Sorry about all the shaded words.