Edgerrin James: Does it matter?

Likely no.

Not to say that he's not going to get playing time in Seattle. It's Julius Jones and Justin Forsett, with T.J. Duckett's disappearance. And that means he is at the simplest, he's going to be the goalline vulture. But that being said? The line sucks and Edge is old.

If he had anything left in the tank, he wouldn't have been signed during the stretch where everybody's drafting. But since he's going to get carries? You have to know. And I'll tell you.

He's a fringe RB3. He'll get a lot of carries at the get go. But he's going to be Jamal Lewis with more carries and fewer yards. Pass on him until Round 9/10. Don't stretch.

If you want to know something...

In the world of Motive, Means, and Opportunity sleepers? I missed a real good one. There was a running back who started three games last season. He played against a murderers row of fantasy defenses. He's going to be back in a back-up/third man in a committee scenario for a more run-centric offense. And he's the back-up to a thumper.

Thumper backs always get nicked up. Ask the people who raced to grab Derrick Ward toward the end of last season. Ask the people who gnashed and wailed as Marion Barber went down. You can find your way into waiver wire magic with a runner.

Which means Tashard Choice has to be on your watch list. Is he draftable? Likely no. You probably have 65-70 backs who have a better shot at carries at present. If you want to take a home run swing at the end of the draft? It's fine. But you're looking at an RB5 in your average league.

But he managed 5.1 yards per carry with the lions share of rushes against the best in the league. Watch him like a hawk. He's rosterable if Felix Jones breaks down.

He could be a real RB1 if Barber does.

Fantastical Risers and Fallers.

If you're living and dying with the marks of a preseason fantasy football magazine, you may as well be already dead. Somebody's going to reach out for Matt Ryan and immediately regret their decision. So, here's what I'm going to do. I'm going to show you risers and fallers.

RISING! Jason Capmbell QB-Washington (Now, this is for right now, but it seems as if Devin Thomas is about to roll up and be a valid choice at wide receiver. If this happens, Jason Cambell becomes a backup with upside.)

FALLING! Shaun Hill QB-San Fransisco (Because he just cannot get rid of the shambling corpse of Alex Smith.)

RISING! Pierre Thomas RB-New Orelans (On the strength of...)

FALLING! Reggie Bush RB-New Orelans (His knee is cursed by Armenian voodoo. Big ass sextaped Armenian voodoo.)


A desperate ploy for hits? Yes.

RISING! Derrick Ward RB-Tampa Bay (With the mess at quarterback, the head of the Running Back core is bound to benefit.)

FALLING! Clinton Portis RB-Washington (Age + LaDell Betts as the 3rd down back equals a second round pick with a high downside risk.)

FALLING! LaDainian Tomlinson RB-San Diego (Because Gartrell Johnson is impressive and LT is 30.)

RISING! Chris Johnson RB-Tennessee and Brandon Jacobs RB-New York Giants (The direct beneficiaries of the previous two fallers.)

FALLING! Leon Washington RB-New York Jets (Because in the scenario, he's the second banana and he's not the goal-line guy either.)

RISING! Fred Taylor RB-New England (He's the head of the Patriots RBBC. Still doesn't make him more than an RB3.)

RISING! Michael Floorwax Morning show host-Denver (Shout out to Waxy Lou! Rising!)

RISING! Rashard Mendenhall RB-Pittsburgh (They want him to take over. They will give him more carries as the year goes on.)

RISING! Kevin Jones RB-Chicago (Can he really be the guy who's going to get all the goalline carries? Really Chicago? Really?)

FALLING! Braylon Edwards WR-Cleveland (Last year's dystopian nightmare was borne out of a leg injury and a slow start. Once bitten and twice shy.)

FALLING! DeSean Jackson WR-Philadelphia (Jeremy Maclin may not start, but as a slot man, he'll make some points that Jackson was supposed to have.)

RISING! Anthony Gonzalez WR-Indianapolis (Hands of glue is looking good in camp.)

RISING! Devin Hester WR-Chicago (He's developing a massive rapport with Cutler and he's going to be the WILDCAT QUARTERBACK!

...I really need a sound effect for that.)

FALLING! Domenik Hixon WR-New York Giants (Because Steve Smith is killing it in camp so far. He may not fall back to WR3, but right now he's not WR1.)

RISING! Josh Morgan WR-San Fransisco (Every day Michael Crabtree holds out, Josh Morgan cements himself as a WR1. Crabtree's making threats he wants to hold out for the year.)

RISING! Chris Henry WR-Cincinnati (Because I told you he was undervalued.)

FALLING! Mushin Muhammad WR-Carolina (Because he's old. And Delhomme sucks. More room in the bandwagon for me.)

RISING! Nate Washington and Justin Gage WR-Tennessee (INCONCEIVABLE!)

FALLING! Earl Bennett WR-Chicago (See Devin Hester)

FALLING! Devery Henderson WR-New Orelans, Mark Bradley WR-Kansas City, and Mark Clayton WR-Baltimore (These teases have opporunities to be the man closed by suck and old men.)

RISING! Derrick Mason WR-Baltimore (The old man who shut the door on Mark Clayton.)

RISING! Percy Harvin WR-Minnesota (But let someone else draft him, okay?)

I owe you a rotissional tier report, eh? Maybe later.

The Undervalued...(ADP Rounds 8-11)

I guess I'm gonna roll up on you with a series. Undervalued from their average draft position. Guys to snap up when the time comes. Not so much sleepers, but sleeper like substances.

Note: I will throw in a defense from the 12-16th round. Especially after Stewart Bradley's ACL injury, this defense has real sleeper value.

QB: David Garrard (10.06 ADP)

There's never much of the Cansei De Ser Sexy with David Garrard. He's never been a stud QB. Somewhere between 10th and 12th place. That's where Garrard lives, though in fairness he hasn't had much to throw to. And for a 10th round pick? It's great value. That being said? There's reason to hope. With Tra Thomas and the draft picks of Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton, you have to figure the offensive line will be stronger than last year.

The receiving corps? It's not without it's upside. Torry Holt could be in line for a renaissance, but his knee is shaky. Mike Walker held off Brandon Marshall in college, but his knees love to shear the ligaments off the bone. But you want to know the strange thing? The Jaguars love all three wideouts that they've drafted. I personally love Jarrett Dillard, but do not sleep on the burner that is Mike Wallace or Tiquan Underwood.

So, what you have here is a fringe starter with tremendous upside.

RB: Ray Rice (8.11 ADP), Earnest Graham (9.10 ADP)

I love Ray Rice. He's a fringe RB2 who could explode. If he gets 300 carries it's 1200 yards and 8 scores (with another 35-40 points as a receiver). It's likely going to be a RBBC scenario. But as it stands? He'll probably get 900 yards rushing, 300 yards receiving, and 8 total scores. Not as sure that he'll be the consistent 20 carry guy.

Earnest Graham is probably going to be the 35-40% of the carries guy in the RBBC that Tampa's going to have if it all breaks right. Will he get the majority of the run on the goal line? Remains to be seen. But you know what? Ward's got a streak of the injury prone in him. And all Mr. Graham does is run with grit and guts. For 9th round ADP, he could steal his way into a Top 20 numbers.

WR: Donnie Avery (8.05 ADP), Domenik Hixon (11.06 ADP)

There are three schools of thought on Donnie Avery. One, he's going to be someone in the Lee Evans school of tantalizing but ultimately disappointing with multiple seasons as a overdrafted bust. Two, he's going to be like Bernard Berrian or Santana Moss as a boom-bust candidate who will run with a 6-181-3, 1-5, 3-161-2, 2-12 series of games. Or three, could he be Greg Jennings? Well, could he be a strong WR2?

I say to that yes. He kind of has a Steve Smith skill set. He's supercharged with speed, and you see him developing the ability to take the slant pattern to the barn. They've done work refurbishing the line, and they don't have anyone else. I believe. He's got 75-1100-8 in his stride.

As for Hixon? You're looking at a potential #1 receiver who did well in replacing a seemingly untenable situation. He dropped a TD in the playoff game and with Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks, you're seeing Giants fans sleep on Hixon. Smith is a valid safety valve, and Nicks does have hands of glue. But someone needs to run the twenty yard out pattern and go up and get it. Bet on Hixon.

TE: Zach Miller (10.12 ADP), John Carlson (9.07 ADP), Dustin Keller (11.02 ADP)

These three tight ends are similar. All are young. All will likely get the number of targets that are commiserate with a wide receiver. All are going into year two or year three. And you're going to see at least one of them go off.

Zach Miller's been the lone dependable part of the Raiders passing game. While he inexplicably had one target last season when the Raiders were in a pure goal line situation? He ended up with 86 targets. Goal line trust waxes and wanes, he's going to get 60 catches and 800 yards either way. It's only a matter of how many scores he gets.

Ironically, considering his ADP anyway, drafting John Carlson is the trickiest proposition. You are not going to see near the attrition that you have seen last year with the Seahawks passing game. But here's the thing, Burleson has disappeared for seasons at a time and Branch has a horrid injury history. Carlson's downside is stagnation. But watch to see who gets the ball in the first quarter.

Rookie quarterbacks are scary. Never mind last seasons rosterability of Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. Rookies are scary. But rookies love the safety valve. And while Jerricho Cotchery will not see his targets drop by any stretch? Most of the missing 120 targets that went to Coles last season are going to go to Dustin Keller.

But here's why Keller is the most likely of these tight ends to breakout. He is the best mix of athleticism and receiving skills that the Jets have. He's going to lose linebackers and overpower safeties. They will gameplan for him, but he's a strong style force.

Def: Green Bay (14.06 ADP)

This may be the insane ramblings of a crazy person. But you look at Dom Capers, and you see a guy who brought three defenses up to speed with great rapidity. And you actually have defensive pieces in Green Bay that were pretty good in 2007, and only had trouble when the glue guy that is Cullen Jenkins went down. Capers generates sacks and stops scores. It's bingo. Considering the torn ACL that we've already seen from Stewart Bradley? Hear me now and believe me later. The Green Bay Packers will be a top 5 defense.

The Undervalued (12-16th round ADP)

Now I know, all I've really done with my blog is get a pity link and change the fashionability of the blog. It looks all avant-garde. I'm happy with it.

Now, as you could tell, the pity link was based on the premise of Kevin Kolb being a great back-up. We're going to be talking fantasy football. I got a start on their tier system last month, and I'll do more this month. But you know what? The kids' a sleeper homer.

So I'll give you a list. At least one per position. These may not be pure sleeper gold. But they may be a nice thing to remember when you're at the end of the draft and stumped.

QB: Jason Campbell (13.12 ADP)

I'm not telling you to bet on a home run from this pick. Not without someone of the Devin Thomas-Malcolm Kelly picks from '08 emerging. But you know what? He is going into the year with no threats to win his job. He also gets a second year with a playbook, rumors that Devin Thomas may be ready to at least be decent, and a last place schedule with three AFC West opponents. He's currently below Brett Favre in terms of ADP. You could do worse.

RB: Kevin Faulk (Undrafted), Michael Bush (14.04 ADP), Jamaal Charles (13.10 ADP)

You could always do worse in terms of an RB4 than Kevin Faulk. And I'm not talking about one of those frakakta Points Per Catch Leagues either. He's always going to get you around 750-800 total yards and 5 scores. And cosidering the aged and injury prone Patriots backfield, he's a no downside end of the draft pick.

Michael Bush gashed Tampa Bay for 177 yards and 2 scores in week 17. It cost a lot of people jobs. Not the least of whom is possibly Justin Fargas. For while Justin Fargas is steady and dull with his injury prone? Michael Bush is big and fast with soft hands. Someone's going to play Deuce McAlister to Darren McFadden's Reggie Bush. I'd bet on the Kentuckian.

Jammaal Charles downside is as another Kevin Faulkish type of back. If that happens? Expect to get about 150 touches, 750 yards, and 3-5 scores. Not bad for end of draft. But the Chiefs want him to become the next Clinton Portis. With his home run speed and slashery. He's put on muscle and has not lost a step. If he keeps his hands on the ball? He will be starting by 2010.

WR: Josh Morgan (15.01 ADP), Mushin Muhammad (14.05 ADP), Chris Henry (14.12 ADP)

Yeah, the 49ers drafted Darkness Crabtree. Yeah, they still don't have a real quarterback. Yeah, but Josh Morgan has the potential to be a fringe WR3. He's killed it in OTA'S. He showed flashes of brilliance during the season in-between a couple of injuries. Let someone else draft the Darkness. Josh Morgan's the value play for you. 14th round steal.

Lost amidst the running game, Steve Smith, and the final horrendous meltdown of Jake Delhomme was the return to a solid #3 WR status of Mushin Muhammad. Really. He was pretty good as a 35 year-old last year. And he does not have that training camp competition that other elderly receivers look like they have to deal with. It's not much upside, but in the 14th round? You get a dude who gets looks.

Trust. It's a hell of a thing. And while many in the media never had a trust in Chris Henry, young Carson Palmer always did. Now that the narrative about Chris Henry is that he's left his actafoolery behind, you can feel good about drafting him. But considering that in the years that he and Palmer had good health and decent brains, he had 15 scores in 125 targets. That's with Housh and with Chad Johnson. Housh is gone. 8-5 and Palmer are still not all good. Laverneus Coles has never been a red zone threat. Chris Henry looks to be downright efficient.

The Running Back Tier System...

Fantasy-wise? Running backs are at once tenuous and intriguing. You don't need to go up and get runner-runner straight away. A sharp waiver wire eye can get you to the promised land. But here's the tier system. I will make comments as to why you need to trust or distrust.

Note: Do NOT go in order. Do Not go in order. Do not...do not...do not...
Note II: Italics mean avoid, Courier bold means sleeper.

Tier 1
Adrian Peterson (He is the Number One Pick. Mock the drafter if they do not take him.)
Maurice Jones-Drew (You see what I said about few running backs to truly trust? He's a top three running back despite never having been the bellcow.)
Michael Turner (He is the Curse of 370's latest victim. You have to be special to avoid the curse of 370. Turner's good, but he's in no way special.)
Steven Jackson (He gets a fullback and an offensive line infusion, but he's like Westbrook in that he's only healthy for 12 games. But he's awesome for those 12.)
Chris Johnson (The upside? Jeff Fisher hates LenDale White as much as everybody else. And CJ is that damn good. The downside? He was injury-prone in college.)
Brian Westbrook (He's 30. For a runner has never been healthy? You can see a potentiality of Westbrook falling off the cliff. And he does have the ankle issue that leaves him lazier than I.)
Matt Forte (Obviously, he's productive, and he'll get his 300 carries. But why he's here is because Cutler has the dumbass that Kyle Orton just didn't have with the checkdown. That's why you may see him in the middle of the first round.)
LaDainian Tomlinson (I do not want. You shouldn't either. He's breaking down. His yards per carry was on the way down when he was healthy. In fact, he was nearly cut. And now he's 30. I could be wrong, but too many runners fall off the cliff. Let someone else take the gamble.)
Steve Slaton (I know I said that Arian Foster is a great deep sleeper, but I like Steve Slaton. With the offense that the Texans could put up? It may not matter if Slaton does not get the 3rd and goal from the 2 run. He has breakaway speed and If you draft him as your RB1 you should be in great shape.)

Tier 2
DeAngelo Williams (If he was anywhere else he would be right behind Peterson. But Jonathan Stewart missed time last season and still managed to get 884 yards and 10 scores running the ball last season. He's not going away. That's why he's a round 1/round 2 tweener.)
Marion Barber (The problem is he has a running style that will not be amenable to 300 carries. The other problem is that he has Felix Jones and Tashard Choice who deserve 15 carries.)
Clinton Portis (In the first half of the season? He will destroy opponents, but even if he stays healthy, he wears down as the season goes on. Draft him in the second round and trade him by week 8 and you're gold pony boy.)
Frank Gore (The system will swing back toward more of a balanced attack, and that should benefit Gore. But the offensive line won't mean he'll be back at the 1692 yard 2006 season. Expect 1300 total yards and 8 scores. Be surprised if its better.)
Darren McFadden (Now year one can be explained away. He had a toe injury. Toes are big for speed and power. The pride is back. And the guy who was that damn good for Arkansas just has to overcome the huggy bear. It will happen this year.)
Ronnie Brown (He's playing for his contract, and he is in his physical prime. He seems to have a firm lead over Ricky Williams in terms of a starting job. He may not be a keeper, but he will be a fine starter.
Kevin Smith (This may be your early third round sleeper pick. He's got a lock on the starting job, a one cut system, an infusion of offensive line help, and a relativly conservative offensive system. The expectation is that he'll be fringe top 15. I think he can be fringe top 5.)
Brandon Jacobs (Of course, if your league skews toward scoring? You can start to have Big Country [Yes, he deserves that nickname] climb up tier two. But like many other runners, you can't depend on his health, and if Ahmad Bradshaw's Family Dolla Steve Slaton doesn't get you? Danny Ware will.)
Thomas Jones (The life of a running back who is on his way out is kind of scary. You have little recourse to rage against the dying of the light. And if you do holdout? You notice that the back-up is not nearly as much of a dropoff as you'd think. Leon Washington has ached to be Tiki Barber for so long, and Shonn Greene could bring thumpers power. Hell, we could see a three-headed comittee.)
Pierre Thomas (Deuce McAlister is gone, Aaron Stecker is gone. All you have here is Reggie Bush to work the all-purpose yardage. Pierre Thomas is going to work inside. And with the passing game as an ever present threat? He will be successful.)
Derrick Ward (Why you need to like him? He ran for 1,000 yards without 200 carries. He did get starter money in his new contract. And the line is improving. But there is the foreboding spectre of the averageness of Earnest Graham and the general struggles of a team instituting a Jeff Jadgozinski run scheme.)
Ryan Grant (He does have a certain amount of bounce-back this season. The Packers are a line in transition, but there is hope, people like the prospects who are coming down the pike. Don't expect a sleeper, but expect solid.)
Knoshon Moreno (This will not be a Patriotish running back by committee. Moreno is a superman sort of a running back, and he will get 20 carries a game, and with that sort of offense? Gold!)

Tier 3
Marshawn Lynch (He will not play the first three games. But he's generally solid when he sees the field. He's not going to lose his job to Fred Jackson in all likelyhood. But he may not be a worthy RB2 in 13 games.)
Joesph Addai (For now avoid. Unless he will be the goal-line back, he will not bring enough to the table for you.)
Jonathan Stewart (You don't know the exact value of the balance between him and DeAngelo Williams, you just know that he is going to bring a lot to the table if he stays healthy. 10 scores can happen again.)
Reggie Bush (He's a back-up running back and a #3 receiver in one. With injury issues. Luckily for his situation, he will get looks while Lance Moore coalesces.)
Ahmad Bradshaw (Remember when I said that Derrick Ward ran for 1,000 yards without 200 rushes? The Giants back-up has a lot of value to a team.)
Earnest Graham (A bad ankle and a similar profile to the new hotness. Don't trust him.)
Willis McGahee (He did not have more than ten carries but once after week 8. He's in the coaching doghouse, and he may even get cut.)
Larry Johnson (He's not the person who got rid of the pain of being a man in 2005-2006. But he still has goal line power to his game. And it can't be that bad.)
LeRon McClain (No matter what happens? He will be your goal line back in Bodymore.)
Ray Rice (All he needs is one domino to fall his way and he looks like he will be a great sleeper.)
Chester Taylor (Obvious handcuff is obvious.)
Jamal Lewis (He's a starter with a lot of miles on his tread. He inspires little, but the Browns don't seem to have anybody else as I write this.)
Chris Wells (He will start. But he will not last 16 games. Take a shot at him if you have depth, if I'm wrong, you could get a chance at Top 10 numbers.)
Felix Jones (He's straight weapon. He doesn't have a clear path to carries, but any time he touches the ball he is a threat to score.)

Tier 4
LenDale White (The question is, does he get the opportunity to have a contract year? Chris Johnson runs like Vinnie Vincent plays guitar. He'll get some scores, but don't expect much smash.)
Fred Jackson (He will be solid with the starts that he will get, but that's just it. He's going to be merely solid. Marshawn will get the gig back.
Jerrious Norwood (Obvious handcuff with upside if starter gets hurt is obvious.)
Cedric Benson (Bernard Scott will be breathing down his neck. Benson may be able to hold him off this year, but I don't trust it.)
Darren Sproles: (The same sort of 10 rush #3 receiver Reggie Bush tigerstyle will come here.)
Julius Jones: (Leader of a running back by comittee for a bounce back offense.)
LeSean McCoy (Shady is like Jerious Norwood. Treat him as such.)
Willie Parker
Donald Brown (There's plenty to like here if he does get to be the front man. But considering how well UConn passed the ball, if he does get starts? He may shock the world.)
Leon Washington (If he gets a chance to start, he will be successful. But this isn't a league that likes small and shifty bellcows.)
Tim Hightower (Always remember, Chris Wells is stupid injury-prone.)
Rashard Mendenhall (He will get the goal line carries no matter what. No matter what!)
Fred Taylor (If he stays healthy, he will be the front man of the RBBC. He's not Fragile, but he is 32.)
Jamaal Charles (He's a home-run threat, he will outplay Kolby Smith if LJ does move on.)
Michael Bush (In a just and loving world, Michael Bush would be the Earth to the wind and fire that Darren McFadden provides. But with Al Davis' touch? Michael Bush is going to be the back-up quarterback.)
Sammy Morris (An oddly shaped Maurice Jones-Drew to Fred Taylor's Fred Taylor.)
Kevin Faulk (Random and consistent pass-catcher who will continue down the same road.)
Ricky Williams (A long strange trip to the short man in a time share.)

Tier 5
Shonn Greene (He could be great if he's the front man. Watch him in camp.)
Laurence Maroney (He does have the gifts to be a good pro. He's shown it. But there are roadblocks in front of him.)
Correll Buckhalter (Shoot him up to Tier 3 if the word on Moreno is struggling.)
Justin Fargas (He's your putative Raider starter in July. In September? Differesnt story.)
Maurice Morris (He's a decent runner who would do will if Smith goes down.)
Tashard Choice (I had him on this list, otherwise he would be in on my last blog post. He's awesome if he gets the opportunity.)
Mewlede Moore (Willie Parker is injury prone and Mendenhall did not show much last year.)

The Five Running Backs who would cause a Waiver Storm...

My friend Elvi has always had a mad on against fantasy sports. And I was nice enough, that because we were a team, I would go easy on the Fantasy talk. But you know what? There's no reason to stop myself now.

So I will start with a list of five running backs and one situation. This is a watch list for you, it's not a list of the Jerious Norwood/Ahmad Bradshaw sleeper list, and all of you who are reading my blog get a nice list.

The have the motive, they have the means. All they need is the opportunity.

Bernard Scott
Now you know that many people were making fun of the Bengals for making the pick. And the NFL existence may be a short one. That being said? He is the most talented runner on the Cincinnati depth chart. He has vision, agility, and good power. He was ultra-dominant in college, and all he has to do is beat out Cedric Benson.

Danny Ware
Here's a little known fact. When the Giants had Earth, Wind, and Fire running last season? They actually kept a 4th running back on the roster. His name is Danny Ware. A tough inside runner who can do the whole one cut and go thing. But he's never had the full chance to make magic. With Brandon Jacobs health and Ahmad Bradshaw's character issues, you should need to keep him in mind.

Arian Foster
The Texans need a thumper. Chris Brown cannot take any punishment, and every other runner they have on the roster? Slaton sized. And while Slaton is good and just early 2nd round pick, he just does not generate a push. Enter Arian Foster. He does have a motor. And even if he does not start? The vulture potential of Foster may be worth a stash pick as the Pre-season goes on.

Gartrell Johnson
There needs to be a certain train of events that would have to happen for the G-Train to leave the station. LaDainian has to break down earlier. And Darren Sproles has to keep his touches under 20 a game. Because in a world of thunder and lightning? Gartrell has a shot at greatness on his thunder alone.

Kregg Lumpkin
Apparently, if Georgia wants you to be a running back? You've made it. Kregg had 4 touches last season. The shame of it, he was looking good before he tore his hamstring. While he is not nearly as physically gifted as a guy like DeShawn Wynn? He runs angry and he runs mean. And in a one cut and go scenario? It can be all you need.

The Jaguar Backfield
You don't know who's going to be the back-up. Right now it could be Chauncey Washington. It could be Greg Jones. It could be Rashad Jennings. All three runners can make their way to the forefront. Why? Because MJD is undersized and he's lost his YPC average for the past three seasons. But with an offensive line infusion, doing homework here is good value.

Here you go. The six possibilities to electrify fantasy nation. I will peep you to names to know when the time comes. But until you reach that point? Just remember these names, okay.

Jerel McNeal: The second round pick who could steal hearts and minds...

Now, in the search for making a series? I found something out. There’s not much for the two guard. Really. I mentioned Jack McClinton. And I believe he’s going to be good.

But you know what? Jerel McNeal will be great. He will be drafted in the second round, and he will have seasons where, at the very least, Free Darko will sing his praises.

Why? I will break it down simply. Succintly.

1) His game is all-around golden.

Let me tell you what Jerel McNeal needs to work on. Off-ball defense. That’s it. Anything else is nitpicking. He hits the three, with a solid mid-range game. He passes well for a two-guard. He locks down his man. You want more?

2) The steal/foul didatic.

In a way? The steal is kind of like the NBA’s version of the strike zone. Or the stolen base. Look. It’s nice to have a guy who can get three steals per game. But if they get in foul trouble? They’re as useless as Alvin Robertson.

Jerel McNeal went from a freshman that gambled entirely too much to a senior who, while he does not have a red number under his fouls committed on Kenpom.com, has become at the very least competent at avoiding foul trouble because he gets too grabby.

3) Intangibles.

You want a college basketball player with a motor. Someone who can’t get fired up when he’s doing it for free will be even more of a dog when he turns pro. You have a 6′3″ two-guard who’s had to defend some of the best in basketball and developed a reputation as a stopper. You have a 6′3″ two-guard who’s just started to create his own shot with a general aplomb.

Put it this way. If he was 6′6″, he’d be threating to kiss the lottery. If he was 6′6″? He would not shock the world. But people are going to sleep on Jerel McNeal.

But I’m not. He’s going to win.

Day 1 Prospect Breakdown: Running Backs

The running back class this season is no great, but it is better than some of the past classes in history. Of course, in this modern NFL world, you have to be sure in a running back, because like Ryan Grant or Priest Holmes? You can get good value late. So why be early? Take a look at the prospects.



1. Chris Wells (Ohio State)
6'1" 237 4.52

The good thing about Beanie? His run talent. In that proverbial defensive box? Wells is a killer. He runs hard between the tackles, and runs through defenders. Let alone the sweet, sweet stiff-arm. He has an excellent size-speed ratio. And while he may gather to cut, if he breaks through the first level? He can take it to the barn.

The problem? The intangibles. He runs hot and cold. His injuries have been many and minor. He needs to have someone keep on him to work. I know, he's young and intangibles can improve. But I can't write a paragraph on fumbling problems alone.

Now, there are some who want to compare him to Adrian Peterson. If he had the intangibles? Yeah. Adrian Peterson can win games by himself. Chris Wells may soon? But it may take a while. And the football fans know what I mean when I talk about a talented power runner with poor intangibles.



2. Knowshon Moreno Georgia
5'11" 217 4.61

There is a lot to like about Knowshon. He is a hard, determined runner with excellent leg drive. He has excellent mobility and vision. He is not someone who can stay got. You can use him as a weapon on screens and angle routes. And it may be both a plus and a minus, but he did not have to be the bellcow.

And while he is a hard, determined runner. He does not have power to his game. He can run upright. And he does not have the bulk to make that style work for 25-30 carries. He can be tracked down, because he does not have the blazing speed.

He reminds me a lot of a more-versatile Clinton Portis. He runs hard between the tackles with an undersized frame. He has excellent mobility, and while Portis timed faster, Moreno plays to his timed speed. You give him 25 touches a game? He'll be great for six years.



3. LeSean McCoy Pittsburgh
5'11" 204 4.48

LeSean McCoy has quick feet and that vision thing. He gas a great ability to find his way into the cutback lane. He's got an excellent ability to make the first defender miss. He has good hands and an excellent nose for the end zone. His intangibles are decent. He'll never be a captain, but he comes to play and brings his lunch.

He's does have that Clinton Portis thing of being unable to play to his timed speed. More agile than explosive. He does have a dancing problem. He runs east-west entirely too much. And in traffic, a loose hand can make the ball go bye-bye.

But you know what? He's got upside. He can either go one of two ways. He can be a Clinton Portis styled slasher. Or he can be solid for 12 years like Warrick Dunn. There's good value in this late 1st round pick.



4. Donald Brown UConn
5'10" 208 4.42

There's a lot to like here as well. Brown is not powerful, but he has nice strength for his size and he does run hard. As last season showed? He has durability. He is spectacular at getting to the corner. He is great at being a one-cut runner. And despite having a -5 passing game on a scale of 1 to 10? Brown has great hands.

However? That timed number is not his football speed. His acceleration is not spectacular either. And he does need more work on his receiving skills. But like McCoy and Moreno? There's a lot more good then bad.

Now, there's not much sex-appeal to Donald Brown. His comparisons are to guys like Willie Parker and the Platinum Pierre Thomas. But you know what? Some team is going to get him in the second round. And they are going to like him. He has a Tiki Barberish upside.


5. Andre Brown North Carolina State
6'0" 224 4.37

Andre Brown has gone from a middle of Day 2 pick to someone who's now firmly in Round 2. Why? He runs with great power and vision. He has the leg-drive and the stiff arm to generate the extra yards, and he is quite angry between the tackles. And in the extras? He has good pass protection and he can be a threat in the passing game.

But never mind the 40-time, he doesn't have that in football terms. He does not finish runs off with any speed either. He has marginal agility and he does need consist carries to get himself rolling. But you know why that's a moot point? He has major durability issues.

Now that doesn't mean a team can't get something from Andre Brown. He reminds me a lot of Duce Staley. But the fact is, he needs starters reps to get rolling and he gets dinged up when he gets starters reps. Not to say he can't be the head of a RBBC, but who's going to be willing to give that to him?

The third round is going to be rich with running backs. I could see four running backs going in this round. Shonn Greene is a powerbacks who could still sneak into the second round. Rashad Jennings is a small school powerback stud. Javon Ringer is going to be a productive waste of a pick. Mike Goodson is the speedy dude who may be nothing more than a tease. And James Davis is the Thunder of Tommy Bowden's nightmares.

I updated this because I love you.

Pat White? Top 5 Quarterback Prospect?

It's not as strange as you think. After all? Pat White suddenly has skills that you're able build a dream on. He has an official listing of 6'0", which contextually means everything. His 40-time is listed at 4.49, but we already knew that. He was a productive, if not injury-prone quarterback at West Virginia.

But why would he be listed as a Top 5 Quarterback? Because with a ridiculously bad quarterback class, when you're a major college quarterback who's in the process of showing something new? You can climb the ladder rapidly. Break it down, you say, and I will.

One, Pat White was able to look comfortable in the pocket as a quarterback during the Senior Bowl game. He's spectacular at throwing the ball on the run, but he showed the raw tools to be a McNabbian dropback quarterback in the future.

Two, in a world that can shake your top prospects, (Matt Stafford, Andre Smith) he has shown himself to be able to rise up to the challenges of the NFL Combine. You can read thoughts from Don Banks or Mike Mayock, but suffice it to say, Pat White isn't a speedy dude with a rag arm. It doesn't mean he can be a good pro, and your Pat White may yet have to move to a different position, but in a world where the white Andre Woodson was your putative 6th quarterback prospect coming into the combine?

It can shoot somebody up the ladder.

And three? All things being equal, Pat White's weaknesses seem less glaring. Rhett Bomar and Nate Davis are both quarterbacks who lack a certain amount of polish to their passing game. So too Pat White. Bomar also has a little longer list of an injury history than Pat White. And Bomar also got thrown out on his ass at Oklahoma.

I'm not saying that you need to look for him in the middle of round 2? All I'm saying is if you get up at 10 am on April 26th and find that you're in the Pat White business?

Don't be shocked.

Okay, so maybe Michael Crabtree isn't insane...

Scouts love upside. Scouts love the guy that you can build the dream on. You look at the guy who you know all about and you start looking for the weaknesses. It's unfair, but it is what it is.

Why am I talking about this now? Because Percy Harvin just ran a 4.37 40-yard dash. And this was to be expected. Percy has the wheels and the run skills to be a receiver version of a Reggie Bush. He's gonna be in the middle of the first round. But he's not why I'm all up in here with a nigh instant retraction of Michael Crabtree running on his pro day.



The man who rocked Alphonso Smith with the stiff-arm is Darrius Heyward-Bey. He was in the second echelon of receivers before he ran his 40 yard dash today. Good size, his estimated 40 time was supposed to be good. If he ran a 4.45 or so? He was going to kiss the end of the first round.

He ran a 4.32. 6'2", 205 pounds. And he ran a 4.32 40. There's going to be a chance that he's going to be the #1 receiver taken now. The inconsistency question? It can answer it this way. He had to catch passes from Chris Turner or Jordan Steffy. I'm not saying he will overtake Crabtree. But I think Al Davis just found a new receiver for the conversation.

It's not ridiculous, LaDainian.

Back at the old site, I actually made one of my smartest posts. It was a comparison of John Hobbes' view of life to the life of a running back. And it's true.

The life of a running back is cold, brutish and short. And when it goes? It goes quickly. The nagging injuries mount. The 4.48 40-time suddenly becomes 4.68. And when the playoffs come? It's nothing more than bikebikebikebikebikebike.

So, when you look at the fact that LaDainian seems to be aghast at the possibility that he may not be in Charger lightning bolts, he is either being nieve or stupid. One, there is a fine vintage of runners available in this draft. Sure, they may not get a chance at Chris Wells or Knowshon Moreno? But I would not be shocked if LeSean McCoy would roll up on them in the first round.

And that might not be as large of a degeneration as you would think right now.

That being said? You could split the duties. Get a versatile small back who's kicking ass in the all-star games like, I don't know, Tyrell Sutton. Give him 150 touches, and you can keep LT fresh for the playoffs. Becuase he's not strong enough to be the workhorse back anymore.

And that is why, they are considering letting him move along.

GITS of the NFL.

Now I know that some of you are gonna say that I'm being mean by calling people Gits. But you know what? It's an acronym.

GIT= Grant in training, as in Ryan. As in the sleeper emergent from nowhere from last season. And there are rules to this game.

1) The situation has to be unsettled. You can't have injuries bring someone to the forefront. Sure, Michael Robinson could be a sleeper, however he's not going to get a chance without disaster striking. There can be a clear-cut #1, but he has to be able to lose his job due to injury or incompetence.

2) No college pedigree. You can generate stats, but a man of Steve Slaton or Michael Bush's hype cannot be a Grant in training.

3) They have to be young. No mention of Stuttering Jesus in Chicago.

So? Who do we have, besides the obvious Marcus Thomas?

Baltimore: Marcus Mason Redskins fans know all about Marcus Mason. An ex-Illinois runner who runs hard and dominated the preseason. It may mean nothing. But with Willis McGahee's wheel, Ray Rice's college wear, and Cory Ross' essential third down backery? Mase may get a shot at glory.

Cincinatti: DeDe Dorsey An undersized runner from an NAIA school, he has explosive run skills. And he will outplay Kenny Watson if he gets an opportunity. And Chris Perry is probably going to have a disgusting ankle injury.

Denver: Ryan Torian will be a Ryan Grant if only because he is injured and people will forget about him.

Detroit: Marcus Thomas's explanation is over on Epic Carnival. Search it out.

Houston: Chris Taylor Kidding. He can't handle a one-cut offense.

New York Giants: Danny Ware While the situation does seem pretty settled. Here's the thing. Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward both get nicked up, and Ahmad Bradshaw is tiny. And they are probably going to trade Reuben Droughns. Danny has the run skills to take advantage of any opportunity when it comes. I believe in Danny Ware.

Seattle: Justin Forsett If he was a white guy, everybody would love him. Because he's undersized without great tools. But he gets everything out of them. And being undersized doesn't mean he couldn't have a Domanack Davis run of being awesome. Their run-skills are similar. Scary similar.

So, there you go. Your deep sleepers. Your watch list. These may not be your American Heroes.

But they're American Heroes in training.