Jerel McNeal: The second round pick who could steal hearts and minds...

Now, in the search for making a series? I found something out. There’s not much for the two guard. Really. I mentioned Jack McClinton. And I believe he’s going to be good.

But you know what? Jerel McNeal will be great. He will be drafted in the second round, and he will have seasons where, at the very least, Free Darko will sing his praises.

Why? I will break it down simply. Succintly.

1) His game is all-around golden.

Let me tell you what Jerel McNeal needs to work on. Off-ball defense. That’s it. Anything else is nitpicking. He hits the three, with a solid mid-range game. He passes well for a two-guard. He locks down his man. You want more?

2) The steal/foul didatic.

In a way? The steal is kind of like the NBA’s version of the strike zone. Or the stolen base. Look. It’s nice to have a guy who can get three steals per game. But if they get in foul trouble? They’re as useless as Alvin Robertson.

Jerel McNeal went from a freshman that gambled entirely too much to a senior who, while he does not have a red number under his fouls committed on Kenpom.com, has become at the very least competent at avoiding foul trouble because he gets too grabby.

3) Intangibles.

You want a college basketball player with a motor. Someone who can’t get fired up when he’s doing it for free will be even more of a dog when he turns pro. You have a 6′3″ two-guard who’s had to defend some of the best in basketball and developed a reputation as a stopper. You have a 6′3″ two-guard who’s just started to create his own shot with a general aplomb.

Put it this way. If he was 6′6″, he’d be threating to kiss the lottery. If he was 6′6″? He would not shock the world. But people are going to sleep on Jerel McNeal.

But I’m not. He’s going to win.

Ten things I learned in this tournament's first weekend.

Oh hi. Did you miss me? Yeah. I know you didn't. But I spent this weekend watching basketball, and polishing the old screenplay.

What? A blogger with a screenplay? COME ON!

But since I'm a man who likes to share what he's learned. Here we go.

1) When in doubt, trust Non-Conference Strength of Schedule if you want a surprise.

Cleveland State had a NCF SOS of 68, Wake Forest had one in the 200's. Siena had a NCF SOS of 2, Ohio State's was 74. Wisconsin beat Florida State in every aspect of the strength of schedule. Yeah, sure this is imperfect numberology, but it dovetails into number two...

2) There better be some other aspect for you to trust in if you want to see an upset pulled.

Western Kentucky won because Chester Frazier could not play. You saw the furious comeback the Illini made at the end of the game, right? Imagine if they had the guy that could make off with the turnovers throughout.

And it also explains Arizona. They were a much more experienced team then they were last year, when they were crappy with the #1 strength of schedule. But they have two guaranteed lottery picks, and you know there are a lot of people who can do magic when the have a chip on their shoulders.

That explains why the team nobody wanted is in the Sweet 16.

3) I hate no calls.

The way you call the first 39 minutes of the game should not change in minute 40. And no, I'm not bitter about the VCU-UCLA game. The upset should have happened, but Collison did get arm. He'd admit it.

4) I also hate Arizona as Cinderella.

Check my twitter. It explains all.

5) I love people sleeping on Pittsburgh.

Why? Because East Tennessee State was a 14 seed sleeping in the 16 seed bracket. They were going to scare someone. It just happened to be the Panthers. And Oklahoma State? Check their Non-Conference strength of schedule. It was top 5. They'll reestablish themselves this next weekend.

6) Gary Williams will always win one more game than he's supposed to.
If he makes the tournament.

7) Bob Huggins will lose one more game than he's supposed to.

Unless he's playing Duke.

8) My heart hates the way this tournament is going.

Even if I have my Elite 8 intact for the first time ever.

9) Carter Blackburn is my favorite CBS Sports announcer.

Because he sounds like failed WWE Superstar Mike Adamle. And that is something you cannot put a price on.

10) Conference RPI is essentially ballast.

Oh look, another NCAA Liveblog!

Hi! Welcome! Analysis to come shortly.

South Projections...

Round 1
1 North Carolina
16 Radford

Radford cannot take care of the ball. Lawson not being there will be meaningless to the end result.

8 LSU
9 Butler

LSU. When I'm in doubt, I always trust a teams ability to win the turnover battle. And LSU, while not tournament tested, has the size and experience to win the hustle battles as well as the turnover battles. Butler will be back. But this year? The Tigers get the win.

5 Illinois
12 Western Kentucky

Chester Frazier is going to be a loss that looms large. Western Kentucky is not great at taking care of the ball. But without Frazier? Illinois cannot take care of the weakness. Now that doesn't mean they won't be able to force bad shots, but the offensive strength for Western Kentucky is in their 1-3. And they can hit from deep and their spindly center will be able to work the offensive glass. Upset lives here.

4 Gonzaga
13 Akron

Gonzaga looks like they can win by 20. Akron can get steals, but with the broad base of skills the Zags have shown this season? Akron doesn't have much a chance to pull a steal. Zags will at least get one.

6 Arizona St.
11 Temple

Both teams have a similar sort of style to them. Slow pace. Big strength is in the two-guard. Both force bad looks. Both are good shooting teams. Both take care of the ball with some aplomb. So? Arizona State. They are stylistically better.

3 Syracuse
14 Stephen F. Austin

Herein lies the rub of instinct. If you think a team like Stephen F. Austin can win, and you know I do. But I know Syracuse can get past Arizona State if they win here. So, I'm going to think on this out loud.

For Syracuse to win they are going to have to jump on Stephen F. Austin early. Flynn is dynamic, but he is not made to take care of the ball. The team does not have great free throw shooting either. This means if Stephen F. Austin can keep it close?

Also? Syracuse has not been a team that provides a threatening frontcourt. The Lumberjacks have Matt Kingsley and little else down low, but this is a team that they can go toe to toe with. It is a veteran team. They have amazing perimter defense. It can take care of the ball.

I have gone back and forth here. I really do think Stephen F. Austin can win here. But the flashes of Holy Cross and their quixotic run in the early parts of the decade are dancing through my head. But in the world of one man, one bracket?

Damn the broadcasters, SFA is a-ok.

7 Clemson
10 Michigan

Michigan has poor interior defense. Michigan struggles from beyond the arc. Clemson can work it in down low. Michigan can't take advantage of Clemson's poor perimiter defense. So? Clemson advances.

2 Oklahoma
15 Morgan St.

Morgan State is a tough team. Their defense is fierce. They may take Oklahoma to the limit in this game. But Blake Griffin will be just too strong here.

Round 2
1 North Carolina
8 LSU

If Lawson is not healthy, then LSU could be shocking the world. They have the defensive intensity and experienced guardplay to hang in with the Heels. Tasmin Mitchell could handle Hansborough. And Marcus Thornton could go crazy.

But with the qualifier out of the way? North Carolina is on a mission. If Bobby Frasor and Larry Drew are merely steady? They should be able to move onward. LSU has struggled versus quality teams this season.

12 Western Kentucky
4 Gonzaga

The turnover advantage that Illinois just couldn't exploit? Gonzaga can. Team PMS can keep it close for a while, maybe even a long while. But in this instance I trust the Zags. (PMS = Pettigrew, Mendez-Valdez, Slaughter)

6 Arizona St.
14 Stephen F. Austin

Can the Lumberjacks make the Sweet 16? I don't think so. James Harden is a real live superstar without the flaws of the Orangemen. They'll keep it close. But they won't win.

7 Clemson
2 Oklahoma

Clemson is a foul prone team that does not limit second looks on the offensive glass. Oklahoma has Blake Griffin. Sometimes? Logic is just as simple as that.

Sweet 16
1 North Carolina
4 Gonzaga

UNC because I think Ty Lawson is healthy by this point. This will be the game they hype the shit out of. But it should be a classic. The key to victory? Oddly enough, Danny Green. The Zags can't handle the three very well. If Green's gunning? Then it's an elite UNC.

6 Arizona St.
2 Oklahoma

If you're a fan of individual players? You have to love this potentiality. Harden versus Blake Griffin. But while James Harden may be able to keep it interesting? The Sun Devils are not great at cleaning the offensive glass.

Elite 8
1 North Carolina
2 Oklahoma

Willie Warren is the key here. Blake Griffin is going to be Blake Griffin in the low post. And that will keep them shiny. But if Willie Warren (or to a similar extent Austin Johnson, Cade Davis, or Tony Crocker) is hot from three. It won't matter how healthy UNC is. OU has taken on challenges all year. They will be rewarded for it here.

East Bound And Down Projections

Round 1
1 Pittsburgh
16 E. Tennessee St.

I like Courtney Pigram and Kevin Tiggs, and I think they have a chance to keep it below 20. But they can't rebound. DeJuan Blair can go for 25-25 in this one.

8 Oklahoma St.
9 Tennessee

I love the Cowboys in this one. They can take care of the ball. They can limit offensive rebounds. And they are sharpshooters. For a team that is marginal to bad at stopping good looks like Tennessee? That means you get the Cowboys.

5 Florida St.
12 Wisconsin

Pomeroy loves the Badgers. And why not? Florida State is bad at limiting an offenses second look as well as taking care of the ball. And the Badgers can take care of the ball and get second looks. But for a team with good size like the Seminoles? I know how the script is going to go. Toney Douglas and the tall trees of the Seminoles inside are going to eat the Badgers alive in the final minutes.

I wish I was homer enough to give the Badgers the 5-12 win. I just can't.

4 Xavier
13 Portland St.

There is also a high potential for upset here. A team unfazed by taking down a giant with a fanbase that doesn't have to travel that far. They can hit the threes. They are decent at generating turnovers (and Xavier sucks at taking care of the ball). They were here last year, and they have good guards. The problem? Most of their losses? They were to teams with height to them. Xavier is a tall team. A tall team that can hit 3's. My instinct is to get upset nuts. But I cannot.

6 UCLA
11 VCU

Take Virginia Commonwealth. UCLA struggles to draw fouls. This brings Larry Sanders into the game as a raw but an absolutely adequate future Jarvis Varnardo. This leads Eric Maynor to have more room to maneuver. UCLA also has bad perimeter defense. Maynor has to touch the stardom of two years ago. I think he can.

3 Villanova
14 American

Villanova in Philadelphia. It's a team that's kind of good at everything. Donte Cunningham should have a lot of room to work with. They have a deep backcourt. American won't go out like a punk, but it's a veteran team that has to destroy it from beyond the arc and take care of the ball. Long odds of that.

7 Texas
10 Minnesota

This is going to be fun. Or painful. It all depends on whether you like "Hair of the Dog" by Nazareth. Well, nothing against the A-team of Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg. But this is built for Gus Johnson or Bill Rafferty. Both teams love to shotblock. Both teams have excellent perimeter defense. Neither team has great offense. The difference in this game? The turnover battle. Minnesota has lived and died by their ability to generate more turnovers than they give up. Texas can take care of the ball. This is why they advance.

2 Duke
15 Binghamton

Please. One, it's in Greensboro. Two, Binghamton already fouls too much to overcome Duke's fancy footwork and phantom flopping. Three, they don't take care of the ball very well. The fighting Tony Kornheisers time will come. Next season.

Round 2
1 Pittsburgh
8 Oklahoma State

Remember the year when Xavier was game but ultimately lost to Ohio State in overtime? It's not going to follow the same script. Oklahoma State is fast and can hit threes, but a 4 guard attack is catnip for Pittsburgh. If Pittsburgh controls the tempo, and it's a lot more likely to happen? The Panthers walk to the Sweet 16.

4 Xavier
5 Florida State

Both teams have one similar flaw. They are not great at generating turnovers. Both teams have one different advantage. Toney Douglas is veteran and one of the better guards Xavier will see. But Xavier will get second chance looks. So who wins?

Xavier.

11 VCU
3 Villanova

Virginia Commonwealth will be game, but the Larry Sanders show ends here. Donte Cunningham is veteran and the Wildcats can draw fouls pretty effectively. Then, it's just a matter of Scottie Reynolds forcing Eric Maynor into trying to do too much. Nova to the Sweet 16.

7 Texas
2 Duke

There will be no second round schadenfreude here. Put it simply. Duke can generate offense. Texas cannot. If Duke struggled to take care of the ball? Things would be different. But they can. So they go to the Sweet 16.

Sweet 16

1 Pittsburgh
4 Xavier

It was an easy choice here. Xavier may be taller and they may have a tough front court. But Levance Fields and Gilbert Brown will be the differencemakers here. It will be closer than my confidence indicates. But Xavier's struggles with the turnovers are the doomswitch.

3 Villanova
2 Duke

I have no empirical analysis here. Both sides are very evenly matched. But I choose Villanova. Their defense is strong. They will force bad shots. And Elliot Williams is a freshman. Odds are he can't beat them.

Also, fuck Duke.

Elite Eight
1 Pittsburgh
3 Villanova

Yeah, Villanova beat Pittsburgh by 10. But that was at home. This is a veteran team with good experience. But then again? So is Villanova. Let's break it down. Pitt will win the rebounding battle. And Pitt will win the Turnover battle.

Chalk it up for Pitt.

West Coast: Bringing The Heat

Round 1
1 Connecticut
16 Chattanooga

Mediocre and veteran is still mediocre. Take UConn. Feel good about it.

8 BYU
9 Texas A&M

Both teams are good but flawed. BYU is a great shooting team, but an inside threat can eat it alive. Texas A&M is a team that can draw fouls excellently and rebound decently, but they are poor versus a good three point shooting team. Oh hai? BYU has 4 starters that have a 37 percent shooting percentage beyond the arc. TAKE THE MORMONS!

5 Purdue
12 Northern Iowa

The question is, can the giant Jordan Egelseder get the ball where he wants to. If he can? Then UNI can keep it close. If not? Purdue can win in a walk. UNI is good, but they're a tad too youthful. I think JaJuan Johnson will control the game.

4 Washington
13 Mississippi St.

For being such an excellent shotblocking team, the fighting Jarvis vanardo's are soo poor at rebounding. Washington? Spectacular at generating second chance opportunities off of misses. Also? If Jay Mariotti says you will shock the world, you will lose.

6 Marquette
11 Utah St.

Marquette has a simple script to win the game. Disrupt the passing lanes and get Gary Wilkinson into foul trouble. They do both? Then it would take a bad shooting night to lose. My one-time stealth final four pick at least gets one.

3 Missouri
14 Cornell

A sharpshooting team always finds a way to stay in the game. And even with a solid defense that generates a tremendous amout of steals and an excellent low post presence, Cornell is not going to be one of those teams down by 21 at the half. They're not going to win? But they'll be a good sparring partner.

7 California
10 Maryland

Cal is the pick here. The Golden Bears are a sharpshooting team that can take care of the ball. They are better at stopping second chance looks. They can't generate turnovers, but they will not likely lose the turnover battle. If it comes down to stars? I would trust Cal's Jerome Randle.

2 Memphis
15 CSU Northridge

Memphis. You don't need an analysis as to why.

Round 2
1 UConn
8 BYU

Remember when I said that a team with a good low-post can eat BYU alive? Hi, Hasheem Thabeet. Hi, Jeff Adrien. Welcome to the Sweet 16.

4 Washington
5 Purdue

Washington is great at rebounding. Purdue not so much. Purdue's great at field goal defense. Washington is already not a great shooting team. Purdue's better at generating turnovers. JaJuan Johnson is more of a talent than Jon Brockman. A healthy Robbie Hummell makes it no contest.

3 Missouri
6 Marquette

If Dominic James was helthy, this would have been different. But Missouri is just too strong down low. Marquette can keep it interesting, but this game is Missouri's to win. Leo Lyons FTW.

2 Memphis
7 California

Memphis cannot hit the three. But you know what? It doesn't matter. They're a veteran team who will dominate down low, win the turnover battle, and manage the game on offense. Cal's a good team. Memphis is a great one.

Sweet 16
1 UConn
5 Purdue

Purdue will win the turnover battle. They have all their stars healthy. They will have better guard play. UConn will draw more fouls and get more second chance looks. They will make Purdue take bad shots. They still have A.J. Price willing to take the big shot.

So you see? Evenly matched. A man who found me weird but funny once has a rule. One conference always dominates a tournament. And I just get the sense that Purdue will have a shot at glory.

3 Missouri
2 Memphis

I do like Memphis and I will pick Memphis. But that being said? Leo Lyons can make millions of dollars with a warrior's performance here. And if Missouri can get out and run? This will usurp Gonzaga-UNC as the #1 sweet 16 potential match-up. But Memphis will win, and losing here is no disgrace

Elite 8
5 Purdue
2 Memphis

Trust in Memphis. They are going up against a game but ultimately weaker team on paper. The strengths in the UConn game for the Boilermakers disappear here. Memphis is the Final 4 team. All hail the age of Calipari.

The Midwest Projections

Round 1
1 Louisville
16 Alabama St./Morehead St.

Obvious pick is obvious. I want Chief Kickingstallionsims to make it past the play-in game. But betting on a 16 to beat a 1 is like betting on getting a Royal Flush. It will happen eventually, but you can't take it.

8 Ohio State
9 Siena

Siena is a scrappy team with good tournament experience. Kenny Hansbrouck is a go-to guy. They generate a lot of turnovers, and this was a team that took it to the Sweet 16 last year. But as for Ohio State? They have Evan Turner, B.J. Mullens, and a short trip down I-70 with a slight turn on I-75. Their size and inside game mean they advance.

5 Utah
12 Arizona

Does Arizona deserve to be here? No. Can they win? They do have a triumverate. Will they win? No. No momentum going into the tournament does not equal the miracle 5-12 upset. I take Utah.

4 Wake Forest
13 Cleveland St.

This really does look like an upset. Jeff Teague struggles to take care of the ball, and the Vikings have two people with fast hands in Cedric Jackson and D'Aundray Brown. Cleveland State already has a big win over a Top 4 seed. Gary Waters is an excellent coach. But they are quite undersized and Wake Forest has talent in the low post. I think this game will be fun to watch. But I just cannot pull the trigger on the upset.

6 West Virginia
11 Dayton

West Virginia is going to pummel Dayton. Dayton is a poor shooting team that wins by hitting the offensive glass hard. West Virginia is a mediocre shooting team that wins by shotblocking, hitting the offensive glass hard, and defending the perimeter. They can beat Dayton's press. And they will advance.

3 Kansas
14 North Dakota St.

This is a game that everybody wants to see as an upset. And there is a lot to it. The Bison are an experienced team of bombers. Ben Woodside and Brett Winkleman are very talented go-to guys. And it will be a semi-home game for them.

But can they pull it off? As much as I want to say it. And my first instinct is to go with the upset. But I just can't. I expect it to go down to the last shot. And I expect a no-call. Kansas advances.

7 Boston College
10 USC

If Taj Gibson plays Taj Gibson's game? Boston College has no answer for it. I say that it's going to happen. Boston College gets their shots blocked and their USC's 1-4 is just too strong for Boston College to handle.

2 Michigan St.
15 Robert Morris

One year, I had a gut feeling that Winthrop was a fifteen seed and could take out #2 seed Tennessee. I don't see it here. Robert Morris will be game. But Michigan state will win it by at least 15.

Round 2
1 Louisville
8 Ohio St.

Now I know Louisville has a tendency to get tripped up by mediocre teams. And I know that Ohio State is a sharp-shooting team that can block shots. Louisville has an inside presence that can tamp down their game. Louisville will be advancing to the Sweet 16.

4 Wake Forest
5 Utah

This is something of an obvious choice. Whereas Wake Forest would have trouble with their first match-up in the draw. You have a team that plays man and can't generate steals. This is catnip for the Wakes. This is why they will win.

3 Kansas
6 West Virginia

Kansas struggles to take care of the ball. And with a defense as strong as West Virginia's? They will make the Jayhawks suffer. I feel like this would be a 71-58 win for the Mountaineers.

2 Michigan St.
10 USC

There are two reasons why you have to go to Michigan State here. 1) Kalin Lucas is a better point guard than Daniel Hackett. 2) This is why Michigan State is better than taking care of the ball. Trust this. Sparty makes it to weekend two.

Sweet 16
1 Louisville
4 Wake Forest

Louisville is going to bring the pain here. Pitino's press promises pain for promising point guard Jeff Teague. Sure, they can keep it close. Wake has good defense. But Louisville will win the Turnover battle. Thereby they get to the elite eight.

2 Michigan St.
6 West Virginia

And the winner of the rebounding battle is going to win this game. And while the Mountaineers can generate a good second chance opportunity or two? They won't be able to stop Sparty from doing their own second chancery. Chalky? Sure. But that's how it goes.

Elite 8
1 Louisville
2 Michigan State

Michigan State's defense will be tough. They will likely win the rebounding battle. The may lose the turnover battle. But if it goes shot for shot? Who do you trust in this matter. Kalin Lucas or Edgar Sosa?

I choose Kalin Lucas. Sparty gets the Midwest. Yeah.

The Grand National Guide to the Big Dance...

I have shown you a lot of things about College Basketball. I have shown you who to love. I have shown you who to be annoyed with (Arizona). But for today? I will tell you all the things you need to know. Yay!

In list form! Boo!

The Round 1 (One on One) Match-Ups I'm excited for.
1) Eric Maynor vs. Darren Collison VCU vs. UCLA (This is the best point guard battle in round one that everybody knows about. Speed kills, and both of them have it. Maynor's shocked the world before, can he do it again?)
2) Josh Carter vs. Lee Cummard Texas A&M vs. BYU (A great match-up of tall two guards. Josh Carter is the super-offensive player. Deadly from beyond the arc, at the line, and he takes care of the ball.)
3) James Harden vs. Dionte Christmas Arizona State vs. Temple (Harden is a top three pick and a salad bar of offensive skills as well as getting fast hands. Dionte Christmas is a gunner with an awesome name who is tasked to stop him.)
4) Trevor Booker vs. DeShawn Sims Clemson vs. Michigan (A battle of undersized low-post threats. Booker is a good shooter, great rebounder and shot-blocker, an excellent anticipation of passing lanes, and he draws fouls without committing too many. Sims is a better offensive player who will protect the ball. This will be an excellent battle.)
5) Ben Woodside vs. Sherron Collins North Dakota State vs. Kansas (Ben Woodside is a top-notch offenseive player. He can score. He can distribute. He can draw fouls without committing them. Sherron Collins is a step up in weight class. But if the Bison would be Cinderella? He needs to get the win here.)

Most Likely to shock the world (13 seeds and higher most likely to take a game. Or lose by like two.)

1) Cleveland State (Excellent defense. Fast hands. They generate turnovers. And Teague is young, and Wake cannot take care of the ball.)
2) North Dakota State (They can shoot the lights out. 4 starters are 39% or better from beyond the arc. I know Kansas is a very talented team. The Bison's shots need to fall to win, but I would not be stunned if they don't. After all, The B-Magic extends to nicknames too.)
3) Stephen F. Austin (I know, this is my pick to click. A deliberate team that plays excellent perimeter defense. They control the tempo? They get second chance baskets? They will shock the Cuse. The Cuse aren't great at stopping the offensive rebound.)
4) Mississippi State (I don't trust teams that have to kill themselves to get to the tournament. I don't trust teams with Freshman point guards. But that's just me. Washington is a poor shooting team. Jarvis Vanardo is an intimidating force inside. This could be a game where Mississippi State has 35 minutes of domination and just runs out of gas.)
5) American (Pomeroy gives them a 1 in 10 shot. But it's Villanova in Philly. Garrison Carr is a gamer, but I'm just putting them there to make five.)

Second Weekend Drama (A.K.A. There's always one team that sneaks into the final four)
1) West Virginia (A Huggins coached team knows how to defend. Dayton should be an easy win. If they can control the physicality, they can beat Kansas. And Michigan State has the same sort of style as West Virginia. If you like fouls? After that? Two losses by 9 points to Louisville.)
2) UCLA (If they can get past round 2? Duke is very winnable. They play the same style as Pitt who just seems like they cannot get over the hump.)
3) Arizona State (Glaser-Harden-Pendergraph and a veteran coach of the ACC wars in Herb Sendek can do well if they get past the 3/14 game. They may be talented enough to handle Oklahoma. And the UNC-Gonzaga winner? They can take it. And if not?)
4) Gonzaga (They can make the run.)
5) Whoever emerges from the 4/5 pod in the East

More to come later.