Back to March 2003. A more confusing time. There was that whole Iraq thing. And anyone who said anything bad about that was a terrorist. So yeah. Confusing times.
So one would dive headlong into the basketball. After all, my high school had made the state tournament. Both Wisconsin and Marquette were looking frisky. And they were in the same bracket!
And hey, the Badgers held off their scrappy undersized opponent in the first round. And wonder of wonders, they got to avoid the Atlantic 10 Champions in favor of a Mid-Major who buzzbombed them. It's supposed to be an easy win right?
Nope.
13th seeded Tulsa played 36 minutes of destructive basketball, it got to the point where they pulled away from the game in Wisconsin. But the 5th seeded Badgers got off the deck and came back to win. The reward? The universally regarded #1 team alive in the tournament. Your Kentucky Wildcats. The Badgers were game, but Kentucky's talent level showed up when it counted.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
It's kind of a bizarro scenario for 20-0-10. The underseeded mid-major? 12th seeded Cornell who buzzbombed the A-10 Champ (Temple). The Badgers had a little (lot) more trouble with Wofford, but that's another W-Team they held off. And the winner? The winner is going to get Kentucky. The best team still alive (seeding wise).
And unlike Tulsa? Many Badger fans are scared of Cornell.
Then again? Bo Ryan is playing a metagame. Survive, advance, and shock the fuck out of Kentucky.
Yeah, that's the ticket.
Showing posts with label Bracketological. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bracketological. Show all posts
Saturday, March 20, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
The South Bracket
After my last bracket I was all WTF, how did Missouri get to the Elite 8? But this one is the Siena bracket, and you're asking me what I'm thinking. Can I book Siena into the Elite 8. Sure. But will I in blog form?
1 Duke vs. 16 Arkansas Pine-Bluff
Arkansas Pine-Bluff will make it a game between 25 and 30 minutes, but they don't have enough to win the game. No matter how much you might want it.
8 California vs. 9 Louisville
There are two things that Louisville doesn't work well with. Experienced guards and or sharpshooters. Cal has 4 senior starters. And they fill it up. Louisville's defense isn't good enough to overcome that.
5 Texas A&M vs. 12 Utah State
I wasn't exactly planning on having two five seeds going down. Especially when you consider the fact that Texas A&M doesn't lose in the first round. But Texas A&M gets beat by two types of teams. An A+ defense or a sharpshooting team. Utah State will make some moves on the glass, but you know what? They make their money from beyond the arc. An average game and the Utah Aggies advance.
4 Purdue vs. 13 Siena
Purdue without Hummel is a team that has lost its soul. Anytime you lose a great defensive rebounder, shotblocker, and your leading three point threat from a team that really doesn't have two? You're in trouble. Siena matches up pretty evenly. But they've done this before. And they've done it as a 13 seed. Veteran talent whos played big on the big stage? Gotta go with it again.
6 Notre Dame vs. 11 Old Dominion
Old Dominion has had offensive problems. But you know what? They are stronger off the glass than Notre Dame. And they force bad shots. The win against Georgetown, a Notre Dame for the super rich counts for a lot here. Am I really going three upsets in a row? Yes I am.
3 Baylor vs. 14 Sam Houston State
I usually can see an upset if you find a weakness in a matchup. Perimeter shooting versus poor perimeter defense? A team that keeps getting its shotblocked versus a Jarvis Vanardo? Yeah. That sort of thing equals upset. Here? Baylor is the platinum Sam Houston State.
7 Richmond vs. 10 St. Mary's (CA)
A bit of a coin flip. Richmond is the sort of a team with a veteran back court and a spectacular defense. The St. Marians are a team of sharpshooters with tight perimeter defense and Omar Samhan down low. I can really see St. Marys win this game. But my gut said Richmond. I've got to trust it.
2 Villanova vs. 15 Robert Morris
Please. 5 Big East Players can just beat one guy.
ROUND 2
1 Duke vs. 8 California
You either need low-post power or some sharpshooting guards for a team to be able to beat down the Blue Devils. Cal has the guards to be able to win. But they need a great day to do it. I can't see it.
12 Utah State vs. 13 Siena
Hmm. The better rebounding team is probably going to take this one. Not that Utah State isn't going to shoot themselves out of the tournament. It's just that Siena is the better rebounding team. TO THE SWEET 16 CRAYONS! KAKOW!
11 Old Dominion vs. 3 Baylor
The team that's going to beat Baylor is a team that will be able to take advantage of its weaknesses. Old Dominion will keep it close, but they will not beat the Bears.
7 Richmond vs. 2 Villanova
This will be a close game. A classic. But the fact is that Richmond is terrible against on the glass. Villanova will shoot well enough to advance to the Sweet 16.
Sweet 16
1 Duke vs. 13 Siena
Siena, because fuck you. That's why.
2 Villanova vs. 3 Baylor
Baylor wins in Houston. They advance to the final four and lose to Wisconsin. Syracuse beats Ohio State. And wins it all. LOL WHAT?
1 Duke vs. 16 Arkansas Pine-Bluff
Arkansas Pine-Bluff will make it a game between 25 and 30 minutes, but they don't have enough to win the game. No matter how much you might want it.
8 California vs. 9 Louisville
There are two things that Louisville doesn't work well with. Experienced guards and or sharpshooters. Cal has 4 senior starters. And they fill it up. Louisville's defense isn't good enough to overcome that.
5 Texas A&M vs. 12 Utah State
I wasn't exactly planning on having two five seeds going down. Especially when you consider the fact that Texas A&M doesn't lose in the first round. But Texas A&M gets beat by two types of teams. An A+ defense or a sharpshooting team. Utah State will make some moves on the glass, but you know what? They make their money from beyond the arc. An average game and the Utah Aggies advance.
4 Purdue vs. 13 Siena
Purdue without Hummel is a team that has lost its soul. Anytime you lose a great defensive rebounder, shotblocker, and your leading three point threat from a team that really doesn't have two? You're in trouble. Siena matches up pretty evenly. But they've done this before. And they've done it as a 13 seed. Veteran talent whos played big on the big stage? Gotta go with it again.
6 Notre Dame vs. 11 Old Dominion
Old Dominion has had offensive problems. But you know what? They are stronger off the glass than Notre Dame. And they force bad shots. The win against Georgetown, a Notre Dame for the super rich counts for a lot here. Am I really going three upsets in a row? Yes I am.
3 Baylor vs. 14 Sam Houston State
I usually can see an upset if you find a weakness in a matchup. Perimeter shooting versus poor perimeter defense? A team that keeps getting its shotblocked versus a Jarvis Vanardo? Yeah. That sort of thing equals upset. Here? Baylor is the platinum Sam Houston State.
7 Richmond vs. 10 St. Mary's (CA)
A bit of a coin flip. Richmond is the sort of a team with a veteran back court and a spectacular defense. The St. Marians are a team of sharpshooters with tight perimeter defense and Omar Samhan down low. I can really see St. Marys win this game. But my gut said Richmond. I've got to trust it.
2 Villanova vs. 15 Robert Morris
Please. 5 Big East Players can just beat one guy.
ROUND 2
1 Duke vs. 8 California
You either need low-post power or some sharpshooting guards for a team to be able to beat down the Blue Devils. Cal has the guards to be able to win. But they need a great day to do it. I can't see it.
12 Utah State vs. 13 Siena
Hmm. The better rebounding team is probably going to take this one. Not that Utah State isn't going to shoot themselves out of the tournament. It's just that Siena is the better rebounding team. TO THE SWEET 16 CRAYONS! KAKOW!
11 Old Dominion vs. 3 Baylor
The team that's going to beat Baylor is a team that will be able to take advantage of its weaknesses. Old Dominion will keep it close, but they will not beat the Bears.
7 Richmond vs. 2 Villanova
This will be a close game. A classic. But the fact is that Richmond is terrible against on the glass. Villanova will shoot well enough to advance to the Sweet 16.
Sweet 16
1 Duke vs. 13 Siena
Siena, because fuck you. That's why.
2 Villanova vs. 3 Baylor
Baylor wins in Houston. They advance to the final four and lose to Wisconsin. Syracuse beats Ohio State. And wins it all. LOL WHAT?
The East Bracket.
The question of the East Bracket is will I let my blatant homerism take control. Wisconsin AND Marquette live in this bracket. And I happen to like my home state sports teams. I remember Jerel McNeal and I care. And whatnot.
1 Kentucky vs. 16 East Tennessee State
Please. John Wall is God. And the fighting Mister Jennings may not be going out like that, but they are going out.
8 Texas vs. 9 Wake Forest
Texas is a sublimely talented team. They could come together and make a run to the sweet 16. But for two reasons, it's the Demon Deacons. They're a strong defensive team that forces a team into bad shots, and Texas has had severe offensive issues in recent weeks. Also? Never trust Rick Barnes.
5 Temple vs. 12 Cornell
If you wanted me to give Cornell my 5-12 blessing, they should have had a team that can't stop the perimeter jumper. Temple locks down the defense on the perimeter. Cornell's main strength is crazy go nuts from beyond the arc. Temple will force them off their game.
4 Wisconsin vs. 13 Wofford
An undersized team that runs mostly man to man? An officially healthy Jon Leuer? Their last game being a terrible game for Trevon Hughes? I vote yes to the Badgers advancement.
6 Marquette vs. 11 Washington
I'm going Marquette. Washington has a tendency to play down to the level of their opponents. USC was a terrible team, and they beat Washington twice. UCLA got one with no defensive presence. Texas Tech and Oregon as well. And nobody was as good from beyond the arc as the Golden Eagles.
3 New Mexico vs. 14 Montana
Montana may be able to keep it interesting for a little while, but you know what? No. Montana's perimeter D is bad. And New Mexico rocks it from treyland, and while they do not defend at an A level? Their B- defense is good enough here. Lobos to round two.
7 Clemson vs. 10 Missouri
Missouri. They can generate Turnovers and take care of the ball. Clemson cannot. LOCK CITY.
2 West Virginia vs. 15 Morgan State
West Virginia. I don't trust them to get much further, but Todd Bozeman isn't gonna do shit.
ROUND 2
1 Kentucky vs. 9 Wake Forest
A poor shooting team that just doesn't generate many turnovers? Yes please, says Kentucky.
4 Wisconsin vs. 5 Temple
First to 50 wins? Yeah. It'll be like that. These teams have some real similarites. Hit up KenPom. You'll see something interesting. But I trust the Badgers to generate more good looks here. Also? Their tall guy has power in their offense.
3 New Mexico vs. 6 Marquette
This is the sort of thing where the winner of the 6-11 game is going to advance through to the Sweet 16. New Mexico just doesn't force bad shots with near enough the alacrity to stop the winner of this game. And as for Marquette? Most teams score on the Lobos from beyond the arc from three. And the Golden Eagles are 7th in 3 point field goal percentage.
2 West Virginia vs. 10 Missouri
Missouri's going to shock some people. Not me though. Bob Huggins will fall early again. Missouri's a pressure team and Joe Mazzula is made of suck and Truck Bryant's got one arm. Missouri to the Sweet 16 is a Book it upset pick.
SWEET 16
1 Kentucky vs. 4 Wisconsin
You know what? I'm going to let my homerism soar. Why? Because they've beaten three teams when they were in the Top 5. And they have two guards who have the ability to take over a game Devan Downey style. They're more experienced, and when the pace slows down, Kentucky has trouble. Hit the upset one time Bo Ryan!
6 Marquette vs. 10 Missouri
I honestly don't know how this will happen. And if this does? Honestly. Marquette has a rotation of six going up against a 40 Minutes of Hell scenario. But they cradle the ball like an infant child. Maurice Acker is a steady force. And Missouri can't take advantage of Marquette's size. Marquette had bad luck when their paths crossed last year. IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN.*
REGIONAL FINAL
4 Wisconsin vs. 10 Missouri
The Badgers pride themselves on taking care of the ball. And they will not fear trying to go for the extra pass. I know it should prbably be New Mexico or West Virginia here. But screw it. No school. Wisco.
*Note: This Bracket Match-up will not happen. Come on.
1 Kentucky vs. 16 East Tennessee State
Please. John Wall is God. And the fighting Mister Jennings may not be going out like that, but they are going out.
8 Texas vs. 9 Wake Forest
Texas is a sublimely talented team. They could come together and make a run to the sweet 16. But for two reasons, it's the Demon Deacons. They're a strong defensive team that forces a team into bad shots, and Texas has had severe offensive issues in recent weeks. Also? Never trust Rick Barnes.
5 Temple vs. 12 Cornell
If you wanted me to give Cornell my 5-12 blessing, they should have had a team that can't stop the perimeter jumper. Temple locks down the defense on the perimeter. Cornell's main strength is crazy go nuts from beyond the arc. Temple will force them off their game.
4 Wisconsin vs. 13 Wofford
An undersized team that runs mostly man to man? An officially healthy Jon Leuer? Their last game being a terrible game for Trevon Hughes? I vote yes to the Badgers advancement.
6 Marquette vs. 11 Washington
I'm going Marquette. Washington has a tendency to play down to the level of their opponents. USC was a terrible team, and they beat Washington twice. UCLA got one with no defensive presence. Texas Tech and Oregon as well. And nobody was as good from beyond the arc as the Golden Eagles.
3 New Mexico vs. 14 Montana
Montana may be able to keep it interesting for a little while, but you know what? No. Montana's perimeter D is bad. And New Mexico rocks it from treyland, and while they do not defend at an A level? Their B- defense is good enough here. Lobos to round two.
7 Clemson vs. 10 Missouri
Missouri. They can generate Turnovers and take care of the ball. Clemson cannot. LOCK CITY.
2 West Virginia vs. 15 Morgan State
West Virginia. I don't trust them to get much further, but Todd Bozeman isn't gonna do shit.
ROUND 2
1 Kentucky vs. 9 Wake Forest
A poor shooting team that just doesn't generate many turnovers? Yes please, says Kentucky.
4 Wisconsin vs. 5 Temple
First to 50 wins? Yeah. It'll be like that. These teams have some real similarites. Hit up KenPom. You'll see something interesting. But I trust the Badgers to generate more good looks here. Also? Their tall guy has power in their offense.
3 New Mexico vs. 6 Marquette
This is the sort of thing where the winner of the 6-11 game is going to advance through to the Sweet 16. New Mexico just doesn't force bad shots with near enough the alacrity to stop the winner of this game. And as for Marquette? Most teams score on the Lobos from beyond the arc from three. And the Golden Eagles are 7th in 3 point field goal percentage.
2 West Virginia vs. 10 Missouri
Missouri's going to shock some people. Not me though. Bob Huggins will fall early again. Missouri's a pressure team and Joe Mazzula is made of suck and Truck Bryant's got one arm. Missouri to the Sweet 16 is a Book it upset pick.
SWEET 16
1 Kentucky vs. 4 Wisconsin
You know what? I'm going to let my homerism soar. Why? Because they've beaten three teams when they were in the Top 5. And they have two guards who have the ability to take over a game Devan Downey style. They're more experienced, and when the pace slows down, Kentucky has trouble. Hit the upset one time Bo Ryan!
6 Marquette vs. 10 Missouri
I honestly don't know how this will happen. And if this does? Honestly. Marquette has a rotation of six going up against a 40 Minutes of Hell scenario. But they cradle the ball like an infant child. Maurice Acker is a steady force. And Missouri can't take advantage of Marquette's size. Marquette had bad luck when their paths crossed last year. IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN.*
REGIONAL FINAL
4 Wisconsin vs. 10 Missouri
The Badgers pride themselves on taking care of the ball. And they will not fear trying to go for the extra pass. I know it should prbably be New Mexico or West Virginia here. But screw it. No school. Wisco.
*Note: This Bracket Match-up will not happen. Come on.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
The West Bracket.
It has a chance for intrigue. The craziest things you can talk yourself into? From this bracket. Vermont becoming the first 16 seed to take down a #1? Yep. UTEP to the Sweet 16? Yep. BYU to the Final Four. Even that. But my bracket commentary? Here we go.
1 Syracuse vs. 16 Vermont
Here's the thing about Vermont. Their strength is in Marquis Blakely. They don't have the T.J. Sorrentine to rock the three point shot. Syracuse advances.
8 Gonzaga vs. 9 Florida State
Teams that bang on the low post have given Gonzaga some real trouble this year. Not to say that Florida State is a guaranteed lock to win this game. But Gonzaga's weaknesses mesh a lot better with the Noles strengths than the other way around.
5 Butler vs. 12 UTEP
I may not be the first to suggest this as a 12-5 Upset, but I will at least give you a reason as to why. The teams that have beaten Butler are teams that shoot well and have an inside presence. Derrick Caracter provides the inside presence. RANDY Culpepper hops around and calls it comedy from the outside. And slow teams aren't what gave UTEP trouble this year anyway. Butler falls.
4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 Murray State
There's a lot of reasons to like Murray State here. Murray State crashes the offensive glass with style and aplomb. They also generate a lot of turnovers and a team like Vanderbilt can be weak in taking teams off of the defensive glass and protecting the ball. I can't believe I'm talking myself into this. But teams with good guardplay and or teams that can force bad shots inside have been Vanderbilt's big issue. Murray State can do both. Murray State advances.
6 Xavier vs. 11 Minnesota
Minnesota is a talented enough team that they could beat Xavier, but Xavier has enough shooters to make that sort of a scenario highly unlikely. And I trust Xavier's defense. So? The Musketeers roll onto round 2.
3 Pittsburgh vs. 14 Oakland
Please. You don't need me to tell you who wins this game.
7 BYU vs. 10 Florida
Every year I pick BYU in the first round and every year they get pummeled. I know that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing and hoping for a different result? But you know what. This pick is crazy. BYU.
2 Kansas State vs. 15 North Texas
Frank Martin advances to round 2. Thanks for playing Angry Green.
ROUND 2
1 Syracuse vs. 9 Florida State
This result is as easy as the fact that Syracuse generates enough turnovers to make Florida State pay, Florida State can't hit the three, and Syracuse can. Survive and advance PC Oranges. Survive and advance.
12 UTEP vs. 13 Murray State
Remember when I said that UTEP had trouble with teams that run faster than they do? Murray State doesn't. They also have had some issues taking care of the ball. UTEP won't blow them out, but the size and experience will win out.
6 Xavier vs. 3 Pittsburgh
This game feels like a coin flip. But I'm willing to trust in Pittsburgh's ability to control the pace and limit fast break opportunities. So yeah. Pitt goes ahead.
7 BYU vs. 2 Kansas State
I can't pick BYU here. I just can't. Kansas State is the sort of team BYU hasn't seen much if at all this year. And teams that could rebound have been the end of BYU via a right thrashing in previous seasons.
SWEET 16
1 Syracuse vs. 12 UTEP
The run ends for the Miners right here. Faster team, and they'll win on the offensive glass. Onuaku should be back by this point as well. The Cuse may win by 20.
2. Kansas State vs. 3 Pittsburgh
Kansas State has the better defense in this match-up. Pittsburgh may force bad shots, but the Wildcats are better glass cleaners. Kansas State may give up turnovers? But Pittsburgh won't take advantage of that. Kansas State rolls on.
ELITE 8
1 Syracuse vs. 2 Kansas State
This looks like one of those classic 88-84 up and down games where there are 21 lead changes. And if you're living in a world where the game looks like it's going to be tight as well as classic. Bet on the team with the best player. Kansas State does not have Wes Johnson.
So yeah. 2 down 2 to go.
1 Syracuse vs. 16 Vermont
Here's the thing about Vermont. Their strength is in Marquis Blakely. They don't have the T.J. Sorrentine to rock the three point shot. Syracuse advances.
8 Gonzaga vs. 9 Florida State
Teams that bang on the low post have given Gonzaga some real trouble this year. Not to say that Florida State is a guaranteed lock to win this game. But Gonzaga's weaknesses mesh a lot better with the Noles strengths than the other way around.
5 Butler vs. 12 UTEP
I may not be the first to suggest this as a 12-5 Upset, but I will at least give you a reason as to why. The teams that have beaten Butler are teams that shoot well and have an inside presence. Derrick Caracter provides the inside presence. RANDY Culpepper hops around and calls it comedy from the outside. And slow teams aren't what gave UTEP trouble this year anyway. Butler falls.
4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 Murray State
There's a lot of reasons to like Murray State here. Murray State crashes the offensive glass with style and aplomb. They also generate a lot of turnovers and a team like Vanderbilt can be weak in taking teams off of the defensive glass and protecting the ball. I can't believe I'm talking myself into this. But teams with good guardplay and or teams that can force bad shots inside have been Vanderbilt's big issue. Murray State can do both. Murray State advances.
6 Xavier vs. 11 Minnesota
Minnesota is a talented enough team that they could beat Xavier, but Xavier has enough shooters to make that sort of a scenario highly unlikely. And I trust Xavier's defense. So? The Musketeers roll onto round 2.
3 Pittsburgh vs. 14 Oakland
Please. You don't need me to tell you who wins this game.
7 BYU vs. 10 Florida
Every year I pick BYU in the first round and every year they get pummeled. I know that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing and hoping for a different result? But you know what. This pick is crazy. BYU.
2 Kansas State vs. 15 North Texas
Frank Martin advances to round 2. Thanks for playing Angry Green.
ROUND 2
1 Syracuse vs. 9 Florida State
This result is as easy as the fact that Syracuse generates enough turnovers to make Florida State pay, Florida State can't hit the three, and Syracuse can. Survive and advance PC Oranges. Survive and advance.
12 UTEP vs. 13 Murray State
Remember when I said that UTEP had trouble with teams that run faster than they do? Murray State doesn't. They also have had some issues taking care of the ball. UTEP won't blow them out, but the size and experience will win out.
6 Xavier vs. 3 Pittsburgh
This game feels like a coin flip. But I'm willing to trust in Pittsburgh's ability to control the pace and limit fast break opportunities. So yeah. Pitt goes ahead.
7 BYU vs. 2 Kansas State
I can't pick BYU here. I just can't. Kansas State is the sort of team BYU hasn't seen much if at all this year. And teams that could rebound have been the end of BYU via a right thrashing in previous seasons.
SWEET 16
1 Syracuse vs. 12 UTEP
The run ends for the Miners right here. Faster team, and they'll win on the offensive glass. Onuaku should be back by this point as well. The Cuse may win by 20.
2. Kansas State vs. 3 Pittsburgh
Kansas State has the better defense in this match-up. Pittsburgh may force bad shots, but the Wildcats are better glass cleaners. Kansas State may give up turnovers? But Pittsburgh won't take advantage of that. Kansas State rolls on.
ELITE 8
1 Syracuse vs. 2 Kansas State
This looks like one of those classic 88-84 up and down games where there are 21 lead changes. And if you're living in a world where the game looks like it's going to be tight as well as classic. Bet on the team with the best player. Kansas State does not have Wes Johnson.
So yeah. 2 down 2 to go.
Monday, March 15, 2010
The Midwest Bracket
Okay, in the interest of full disclosure? I'm going to tell you that I usually collapse by the first weekend. It's like a mediocre golfer at the Masters. But seeing as I'm starving the people in regards to production? I'll give you a commentary as I fill in the brackets.
We will start with the Midwest.
1 Kansas vs. 16 Lehigh
Kansas. I know that Bucknell has beaten a Bill Self led team. But Kansas is obvious.
8 UNLV vs. 9 Northern Iowa
Teams than can defend inside have given lots of trouble to the Rebels. The Rebels lost to Utah twice this year and they were kind of pretty terrible. Northern Iowa has one of the best rebounders in the country in Egelseder. I say they get to strap it up versus KU.
5 Michigan State vs. 12 New Mexico State
This is not the 5-12 upset that you're looking for. Izzo is built to win games in the tournament. Michigan State gets the win. Easy.
4 Maryland vs. 13 Houston
Houston absolutely can keep it interesting for 30-35 minutes. But the thing about Maryland? They get beaten by teams that rock the offensive glass. Houston just does not have that sort of genius power to their game. Maryland advances.
6 Tennessee vs. 11 San Diego State
This is the sort of matchup that actually plays right into San Diego State's hands. Most of the teams that have shown that they can beat Tennessee have an inside presence. If you tamp down inside shooting and crash the glass? You can beat Tennessee. And Tennessee isn't the strongest team defending inside. I'm going to take the Aztecs.
3 Georgetown vs. 14 Ohio
Ohio's just happy to be here. The team that gets hot to get in will not get beyond the first round. Ohio may gave won 5 in a row and 7 out of 8, but please. Please. Georgetown.
7 Oklahoma State vs. 10 Georgia Tech
It actually favors Georgia Tech on paper. It's not the run and gun Oklahoma State of years before. And they haven't generated the turnovers that have killed the Bees at several points during the year. Oklahoma State's going to have to make threes to have a chance here. And it hasn't happened yet.
2 Ohio State vs. 15 Cal-State Santa Barbara.
Ohio State can work it inside. UCSB gets killed by teams with an inside presence. Buckeyes get to round two.
ROUND 2
1 Kansas vs. 9 Northern Iowa
The Balance of Kansas will make them win. Northern Iowa just doesn't have the offensive horses. It'll be something like last years Purdue score. 61-55 or something.
4 Maryland vs. 5 Michigan State
Remember when I said that Maryland has trouble with teams that find a way to hit the offensive glass? Say hello to Tom Izzo's latest trip to the Sweet 16. The 9th best team at hitting the offensive glass will overcome a good Maryland team.
3 Georgetown vs. 11 San Diego State
The big bugaboo for the Aztecs is their inability to defend a team that can consistently hit from beyond the arc thereby limiting their inside defensive presence. With players like Austin Freeman and Jason Clark? Georgetown will get into the Sweet 16. (But I want it to be known if this was like a Football bowl pool? I'd give this game a low confidence score. BETWEEN THE HEDGINGS!)
2 Ohio State vs. 10 Georgia Tech
This is the sort of game that Ohio State will pull out. Georgia Tech's size will keep them in it for a long while. They may even be leading as we get to crunch time. However? Georgia Tech cannot make a free throw to save their life. And we all know that Evan Turner's rolling through his draft status drive.
SWEET 16
1 Kansas vs. 5 Michigan State
Redemption comes through in this game. Kansas is one of the deadliest teams at defending inside. Outside shooting is Michigan State's big weakness. They get down by 10 and it's over. Kansas to the Elite Eight.
2 Ohio State vs. 3 Georgetown
Georgetown is a team that doesn't take care of the ball. They also don't go to the bench unless they absolutely have to. And they also don't have Evan Turner. The better defense will win this game. And that goes to the Buckeyes.
Regional Final
1 Kansas vs. 2 Ohio State
I have no empirical evidence as to exaclty why I'm saying this. But I am going with Ohio State. Evan Turner is the sort of superstar that Kansas doesn't have. And you know what else? By this point anyway? My bracket is toast. So guts and nuts. Buckeyes to the Final Four.
We will start with the Midwest.
1 Kansas vs. 16 Lehigh
Kansas. I know that Bucknell has beaten a Bill Self led team. But Kansas is obvious.
8 UNLV vs. 9 Northern Iowa
Teams than can defend inside have given lots of trouble to the Rebels. The Rebels lost to Utah twice this year and they were kind of pretty terrible. Northern Iowa has one of the best rebounders in the country in Egelseder. I say they get to strap it up versus KU.
5 Michigan State vs. 12 New Mexico State
This is not the 5-12 upset that you're looking for. Izzo is built to win games in the tournament. Michigan State gets the win. Easy.
4 Maryland vs. 13 Houston
Houston absolutely can keep it interesting for 30-35 minutes. But the thing about Maryland? They get beaten by teams that rock the offensive glass. Houston just does not have that sort of genius power to their game. Maryland advances.
6 Tennessee vs. 11 San Diego State
This is the sort of matchup that actually plays right into San Diego State's hands. Most of the teams that have shown that they can beat Tennessee have an inside presence. If you tamp down inside shooting and crash the glass? You can beat Tennessee. And Tennessee isn't the strongest team defending inside. I'm going to take the Aztecs.
3 Georgetown vs. 14 Ohio
Ohio's just happy to be here. The team that gets hot to get in will not get beyond the first round. Ohio may gave won 5 in a row and 7 out of 8, but please. Please. Georgetown.
7 Oklahoma State vs. 10 Georgia Tech
It actually favors Georgia Tech on paper. It's not the run and gun Oklahoma State of years before. And they haven't generated the turnovers that have killed the Bees at several points during the year. Oklahoma State's going to have to make threes to have a chance here. And it hasn't happened yet.
2 Ohio State vs. 15 Cal-State Santa Barbara.
Ohio State can work it inside. UCSB gets killed by teams with an inside presence. Buckeyes get to round two.
ROUND 2
1 Kansas vs. 9 Northern Iowa
The Balance of Kansas will make them win. Northern Iowa just doesn't have the offensive horses. It'll be something like last years Purdue score. 61-55 or something.
4 Maryland vs. 5 Michigan State
Remember when I said that Maryland has trouble with teams that find a way to hit the offensive glass? Say hello to Tom Izzo's latest trip to the Sweet 16. The 9th best team at hitting the offensive glass will overcome a good Maryland team.
3 Georgetown vs. 11 San Diego State
The big bugaboo for the Aztecs is their inability to defend a team that can consistently hit from beyond the arc thereby limiting their inside defensive presence. With players like Austin Freeman and Jason Clark? Georgetown will get into the Sweet 16. (But I want it to be known if this was like a Football bowl pool? I'd give this game a low confidence score. BETWEEN THE HEDGINGS!)
2 Ohio State vs. 10 Georgia Tech
This is the sort of game that Ohio State will pull out. Georgia Tech's size will keep them in it for a long while. They may even be leading as we get to crunch time. However? Georgia Tech cannot make a free throw to save their life. And we all know that Evan Turner's rolling through his draft status drive.
SWEET 16
1 Kansas vs. 5 Michigan State
Redemption comes through in this game. Kansas is one of the deadliest teams at defending inside. Outside shooting is Michigan State's big weakness. They get down by 10 and it's over. Kansas to the Elite Eight.
2 Ohio State vs. 3 Georgetown
Georgetown is a team that doesn't take care of the ball. They also don't go to the bench unless they absolutely have to. And they also don't have Evan Turner. The better defense will win this game. And that goes to the Buckeyes.
Regional Final
1 Kansas vs. 2 Ohio State
I have no empirical evidence as to exaclty why I'm saying this. But I am going with Ohio State. Evan Turner is the sort of superstar that Kansas doesn't have. And you know what else? By this point anyway? My bracket is toast. So guts and nuts. Buckeyes to the Final Four.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
You Know What?
I'm an idiot.
I know, big shock there.
But let's be honest. I should have known Pittsburgh was going to lose. Pittsburgh has strengths. Plenty of them. They underperformed as a #1 seed, but they've had opponents who refuse to go out like that. But here's the thing.
Villanova has no weaknesses. They are an experienced team with an excellent balance. Threes? Nova can do it. Rebounding? Nova can do it. Coaching? Jay Wright's got a fearless swagger.
And Jaime Dixon? He always has good teams. He just hasn't been able to take the next step. He's like Bob Huggins, but with charm.
Alas. I bet against a team with experience and balance for a team with a coach who isn't there yet.
Ah well, if you read the blog, you know my bracket was dead anyway.
I know, big shock there.
But let's be honest. I should have known Pittsburgh was going to lose. Pittsburgh has strengths. Plenty of them. They underperformed as a #1 seed, but they've had opponents who refuse to go out like that. But here's the thing.
Villanova has no weaknesses. They are an experienced team with an excellent balance. Threes? Nova can do it. Rebounding? Nova can do it. Coaching? Jay Wright's got a fearless swagger.
And Jaime Dixon? He always has good teams. He just hasn't been able to take the next step. He's like Bob Huggins, but with charm.
Alas. I bet against a team with experience and balance for a team with a coach who isn't there yet.
Ah well, if you read the blog, you know my bracket was dead anyway.
Monday, March 23, 2009
Ten things I learned in this tournament's first weekend.
Oh hi. Did you miss me? Yeah. I know you didn't. But I spent this weekend watching basketball, and polishing the old screenplay.
What? A blogger with a screenplay? COME ON!
But since I'm a man who likes to share what he's learned. Here we go.
1) When in doubt, trust Non-Conference Strength of Schedule if you want a surprise.
Cleveland State had a NCF SOS of 68, Wake Forest had one in the 200's. Siena had a NCF SOS of 2, Ohio State's was 74. Wisconsin beat Florida State in every aspect of the strength of schedule. Yeah, sure this is imperfect numberology, but it dovetails into number two...
2) There better be some other aspect for you to trust in if you want to see an upset pulled.
Western Kentucky won because Chester Frazier could not play. You saw the furious comeback the Illini made at the end of the game, right? Imagine if they had the guy that could make off with the turnovers throughout.
And it also explains Arizona. They were a much more experienced team then they were last year, when they were crappy with the #1 strength of schedule. But they have two guaranteed lottery picks, and you know there are a lot of people who can do magic when the have a chip on their shoulders.
That explains why the team nobody wanted is in the Sweet 16.
3) I hate no calls.
The way you call the first 39 minutes of the game should not change in minute 40. And no, I'm not bitter about the VCU-UCLA game. The upset should have happened, but Collison did get arm. He'd admit it.
4) I also hate Arizona as Cinderella.
Check my twitter. It explains all.
5) I love people sleeping on Pittsburgh.
Why? Because East Tennessee State was a 14 seed sleeping in the 16 seed bracket. They were going to scare someone. It just happened to be the Panthers. And Oklahoma State? Check their Non-Conference strength of schedule. It was top 5. They'll reestablish themselves this next weekend.
6) Gary Williams will always win one more game than he's supposed to.
If he makes the tournament.
7) Bob Huggins will lose one more game than he's supposed to.
Unless he's playing Duke.
8) My heart hates the way this tournament is going.
Even if I have my Elite 8 intact for the first time ever.
9) Carter Blackburn is my favorite CBS Sports announcer.
Because he sounds like failed WWE Superstar Mike Adamle. And that is something you cannot put a price on.
10) Conference RPI is essentially ballast.
What? A blogger with a screenplay? COME ON!
But since I'm a man who likes to share what he's learned. Here we go.
1) When in doubt, trust Non-Conference Strength of Schedule if you want a surprise.
Cleveland State had a NCF SOS of 68, Wake Forest had one in the 200's. Siena had a NCF SOS of 2, Ohio State's was 74. Wisconsin beat Florida State in every aspect of the strength of schedule. Yeah, sure this is imperfect numberology, but it dovetails into number two...
2) There better be some other aspect for you to trust in if you want to see an upset pulled.
Western Kentucky won because Chester Frazier could not play. You saw the furious comeback the Illini made at the end of the game, right? Imagine if they had the guy that could make off with the turnovers throughout.
And it also explains Arizona. They were a much more experienced team then they were last year, when they were crappy with the #1 strength of schedule. But they have two guaranteed lottery picks, and you know there are a lot of people who can do magic when the have a chip on their shoulders.
That explains why the team nobody wanted is in the Sweet 16.
3) I hate no calls.
The way you call the first 39 minutes of the game should not change in minute 40. And no, I'm not bitter about the VCU-UCLA game. The upset should have happened, but Collison did get arm. He'd admit it.
4) I also hate Arizona as Cinderella.
Check my twitter. It explains all.
5) I love people sleeping on Pittsburgh.
Why? Because East Tennessee State was a 14 seed sleeping in the 16 seed bracket. They were going to scare someone. It just happened to be the Panthers. And Oklahoma State? Check their Non-Conference strength of schedule. It was top 5. They'll reestablish themselves this next weekend.
6) Gary Williams will always win one more game than he's supposed to.
If he makes the tournament.
7) Bob Huggins will lose one more game than he's supposed to.
Unless he's playing Duke.
8) My heart hates the way this tournament is going.
Even if I have my Elite 8 intact for the first time ever.
9) Carter Blackburn is my favorite CBS Sports announcer.
Because he sounds like failed WWE Superstar Mike Adamle. And that is something you cannot put a price on.
10) Conference RPI is essentially ballast.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
South Projections...
Round 1
1 North Carolina
16 Radford
Radford cannot take care of the ball. Lawson not being there will be meaningless to the end result.
8 LSU
9 Butler
LSU. When I'm in doubt, I always trust a teams ability to win the turnover battle. And LSU, while not tournament tested, has the size and experience to win the hustle battles as well as the turnover battles. Butler will be back. But this year? The Tigers get the win.
5 Illinois
12 Western Kentucky
Chester Frazier is going to be a loss that looms large. Western Kentucky is not great at taking care of the ball. But without Frazier? Illinois cannot take care of the weakness. Now that doesn't mean they won't be able to force bad shots, but the offensive strength for Western Kentucky is in their 1-3. And they can hit from deep and their spindly center will be able to work the offensive glass. Upset lives here.
4 Gonzaga
13 Akron
Gonzaga looks like they can win by 20. Akron can get steals, but with the broad base of skills the Zags have shown this season? Akron doesn't have much a chance to pull a steal. Zags will at least get one.
6 Arizona St.
11 Temple
Both teams have a similar sort of style to them. Slow pace. Big strength is in the two-guard. Both force bad looks. Both are good shooting teams. Both take care of the ball with some aplomb. So? Arizona State. They are stylistically better.
3 Syracuse
14 Stephen F. Austin
Herein lies the rub of instinct. If you think a team like Stephen F. Austin can win, and you know I do. But I know Syracuse can get past Arizona State if they win here. So, I'm going to think on this out loud.
For Syracuse to win they are going to have to jump on Stephen F. Austin early. Flynn is dynamic, but he is not made to take care of the ball. The team does not have great free throw shooting either. This means if Stephen F. Austin can keep it close?
Also? Syracuse has not been a team that provides a threatening frontcourt. The Lumberjacks have Matt Kingsley and little else down low, but this is a team that they can go toe to toe with. It is a veteran team. They have amazing perimter defense. It can take care of the ball.
I have gone back and forth here. I really do think Stephen F. Austin can win here. But the flashes of Holy Cross and their quixotic run in the early parts of the decade are dancing through my head. But in the world of one man, one bracket?
Damn the broadcasters, SFA is a-ok.
7 Clemson
10 Michigan
Michigan has poor interior defense. Michigan struggles from beyond the arc. Clemson can work it in down low. Michigan can't take advantage of Clemson's poor perimiter defense. So? Clemson advances.
2 Oklahoma
15 Morgan St.
Morgan State is a tough team. Their defense is fierce. They may take Oklahoma to the limit in this game. But Blake Griffin will be just too strong here.
Round 2
1 North Carolina
8 LSU
If Lawson is not healthy, then LSU could be shocking the world. They have the defensive intensity and experienced guardplay to hang in with the Heels. Tasmin Mitchell could handle Hansborough. And Marcus Thornton could go crazy.
But with the qualifier out of the way? North Carolina is on a mission. If Bobby Frasor and Larry Drew are merely steady? They should be able to move onward. LSU has struggled versus quality teams this season.
12 Western Kentucky
4 Gonzaga
The turnover advantage that Illinois just couldn't exploit? Gonzaga can. Team PMS can keep it close for a while, maybe even a long while. But in this instance I trust the Zags. (PMS = Pettigrew, Mendez-Valdez, Slaughter)
6 Arizona St.
14 Stephen F. Austin
Can the Lumberjacks make the Sweet 16? I don't think so. James Harden is a real live superstar without the flaws of the Orangemen. They'll keep it close. But they won't win.
7 Clemson
2 Oklahoma
Clemson is a foul prone team that does not limit second looks on the offensive glass. Oklahoma has Blake Griffin. Sometimes? Logic is just as simple as that.
Sweet 16
1 North Carolina
4 Gonzaga
UNC because I think Ty Lawson is healthy by this point. This will be the game they hype the shit out of. But it should be a classic. The key to victory? Oddly enough, Danny Green. The Zags can't handle the three very well. If Green's gunning? Then it's an elite UNC.
6 Arizona St.
2 Oklahoma
If you're a fan of individual players? You have to love this potentiality. Harden versus Blake Griffin. But while James Harden may be able to keep it interesting? The Sun Devils are not great at cleaning the offensive glass.
Elite 8
1 North Carolina
2 Oklahoma
Willie Warren is the key here. Blake Griffin is going to be Blake Griffin in the low post. And that will keep them shiny. But if Willie Warren (or to a similar extent Austin Johnson, Cade Davis, or Tony Crocker) is hot from three. It won't matter how healthy UNC is. OU has taken on challenges all year. They will be rewarded for it here.
1 North Carolina
16 Radford
Radford cannot take care of the ball. Lawson not being there will be meaningless to the end result.
8 LSU
9 Butler
LSU. When I'm in doubt, I always trust a teams ability to win the turnover battle. And LSU, while not tournament tested, has the size and experience to win the hustle battles as well as the turnover battles. Butler will be back. But this year? The Tigers get the win.
5 Illinois
12 Western Kentucky
Chester Frazier is going to be a loss that looms large. Western Kentucky is not great at taking care of the ball. But without Frazier? Illinois cannot take care of the weakness. Now that doesn't mean they won't be able to force bad shots, but the offensive strength for Western Kentucky is in their 1-3. And they can hit from deep and their spindly center will be able to work the offensive glass. Upset lives here.
4 Gonzaga
13 Akron
Gonzaga looks like they can win by 20. Akron can get steals, but with the broad base of skills the Zags have shown this season? Akron doesn't have much a chance to pull a steal. Zags will at least get one.
6 Arizona St.
11 Temple
Both teams have a similar sort of style to them. Slow pace. Big strength is in the two-guard. Both force bad looks. Both are good shooting teams. Both take care of the ball with some aplomb. So? Arizona State. They are stylistically better.
3 Syracuse
14 Stephen F. Austin
Herein lies the rub of instinct. If you think a team like Stephen F. Austin can win, and you know I do. But I know Syracuse can get past Arizona State if they win here. So, I'm going to think on this out loud.
For Syracuse to win they are going to have to jump on Stephen F. Austin early. Flynn is dynamic, but he is not made to take care of the ball. The team does not have great free throw shooting either. This means if Stephen F. Austin can keep it close?
Also? Syracuse has not been a team that provides a threatening frontcourt. The Lumberjacks have Matt Kingsley and little else down low, but this is a team that they can go toe to toe with. It is a veteran team. They have amazing perimter defense. It can take care of the ball.
I have gone back and forth here. I really do think Stephen F. Austin can win here. But the flashes of Holy Cross and their quixotic run in the early parts of the decade are dancing through my head. But in the world of one man, one bracket?
Damn the broadcasters, SFA is a-ok.
7 Clemson
10 Michigan
Michigan has poor interior defense. Michigan struggles from beyond the arc. Clemson can work it in down low. Michigan can't take advantage of Clemson's poor perimiter defense. So? Clemson advances.
2 Oklahoma
15 Morgan St.
Morgan State is a tough team. Their defense is fierce. They may take Oklahoma to the limit in this game. But Blake Griffin will be just too strong here.
Round 2
1 North Carolina
8 LSU
If Lawson is not healthy, then LSU could be shocking the world. They have the defensive intensity and experienced guardplay to hang in with the Heels. Tasmin Mitchell could handle Hansborough. And Marcus Thornton could go crazy.
But with the qualifier out of the way? North Carolina is on a mission. If Bobby Frasor and Larry Drew are merely steady? They should be able to move onward. LSU has struggled versus quality teams this season.
12 Western Kentucky
4 Gonzaga
The turnover advantage that Illinois just couldn't exploit? Gonzaga can. Team PMS can keep it close for a while, maybe even a long while. But in this instance I trust the Zags. (PMS = Pettigrew, Mendez-Valdez, Slaughter)
6 Arizona St.
14 Stephen F. Austin
Can the Lumberjacks make the Sweet 16? I don't think so. James Harden is a real live superstar without the flaws of the Orangemen. They'll keep it close. But they won't win.
7 Clemson
2 Oklahoma
Clemson is a foul prone team that does not limit second looks on the offensive glass. Oklahoma has Blake Griffin. Sometimes? Logic is just as simple as that.
Sweet 16
1 North Carolina
4 Gonzaga
UNC because I think Ty Lawson is healthy by this point. This will be the game they hype the shit out of. But it should be a classic. The key to victory? Oddly enough, Danny Green. The Zags can't handle the three very well. If Green's gunning? Then it's an elite UNC.
6 Arizona St.
2 Oklahoma
If you're a fan of individual players? You have to love this potentiality. Harden versus Blake Griffin. But while James Harden may be able to keep it interesting? The Sun Devils are not great at cleaning the offensive glass.
Elite 8
1 North Carolina
2 Oklahoma
Willie Warren is the key here. Blake Griffin is going to be Blake Griffin in the low post. And that will keep them shiny. But if Willie Warren (or to a similar extent Austin Johnson, Cade Davis, or Tony Crocker) is hot from three. It won't matter how healthy UNC is. OU has taken on challenges all year. They will be rewarded for it here.
East Bound And Down Projections
Round 1
1 Pittsburgh
16 E. Tennessee St.
I like Courtney Pigram and Kevin Tiggs, and I think they have a chance to keep it below 20. But they can't rebound. DeJuan Blair can go for 25-25 in this one.
8 Oklahoma St.
9 Tennessee
I love the Cowboys in this one. They can take care of the ball. They can limit offensive rebounds. And they are sharpshooters. For a team that is marginal to bad at stopping good looks like Tennessee? That means you get the Cowboys.
5 Florida St.
12 Wisconsin
Pomeroy loves the Badgers. And why not? Florida State is bad at limiting an offenses second look as well as taking care of the ball. And the Badgers can take care of the ball and get second looks. But for a team with good size like the Seminoles? I know how the script is going to go. Toney Douglas and the tall trees of the Seminoles inside are going to eat the Badgers alive in the final minutes.
I wish I was homer enough to give the Badgers the 5-12 win. I just can't.
4 Xavier
13 Portland St.
There is also a high potential for upset here. A team unfazed by taking down a giant with a fanbase that doesn't have to travel that far. They can hit the threes. They are decent at generating turnovers (and Xavier sucks at taking care of the ball). They were here last year, and they have good guards. The problem? Most of their losses? They were to teams with height to them. Xavier is a tall team. A tall team that can hit 3's. My instinct is to get upset nuts. But I cannot.
6 UCLA
11 VCU
Take Virginia Commonwealth. UCLA struggles to draw fouls. This brings Larry Sanders into the game as a raw but an absolutely adequate future Jarvis Varnardo. This leads Eric Maynor to have more room to maneuver. UCLA also has bad perimeter defense. Maynor has to touch the stardom of two years ago. I think he can.
3 Villanova
14 American
Villanova in Philadelphia. It's a team that's kind of good at everything. Donte Cunningham should have a lot of room to work with. They have a deep backcourt. American won't go out like a punk, but it's a veteran team that has to destroy it from beyond the arc and take care of the ball. Long odds of that.
7 Texas
10 Minnesota
This is going to be fun. Or painful. It all depends on whether you like "Hair of the Dog" by Nazareth. Well, nothing against the A-team of Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg. But this is built for Gus Johnson or Bill Rafferty. Both teams love to shotblock. Both teams have excellent perimeter defense. Neither team has great offense. The difference in this game? The turnover battle. Minnesota has lived and died by their ability to generate more turnovers than they give up. Texas can take care of the ball. This is why they advance.
2 Duke
15 Binghamton
Please. One, it's in Greensboro. Two, Binghamton already fouls too much to overcome Duke's fancy footwork and phantom flopping. Three, they don't take care of the ball very well. The fighting Tony Kornheisers time will come. Next season.
Round 2
1 Pittsburgh
8 Oklahoma State
Remember the year when Xavier was game but ultimately lost to Ohio State in overtime? It's not going to follow the same script. Oklahoma State is fast and can hit threes, but a 4 guard attack is catnip for Pittsburgh. If Pittsburgh controls the tempo, and it's a lot more likely to happen? The Panthers walk to the Sweet 16.
4 Xavier
5 Florida State
Both teams have one similar flaw. They are not great at generating turnovers. Both teams have one different advantage. Toney Douglas is veteran and one of the better guards Xavier will see. But Xavier will get second chance looks. So who wins?
Xavier.
11 VCU
3 Villanova
Virginia Commonwealth will be game, but the Larry Sanders show ends here. Donte Cunningham is veteran and the Wildcats can draw fouls pretty effectively. Then, it's just a matter of Scottie Reynolds forcing Eric Maynor into trying to do too much. Nova to the Sweet 16.
7 Texas
2 Duke
There will be no second round schadenfreude here. Put it simply. Duke can generate offense. Texas cannot. If Duke struggled to take care of the ball? Things would be different. But they can. So they go to the Sweet 16.
Sweet 16
1 Pittsburgh
4 Xavier
It was an easy choice here. Xavier may be taller and they may have a tough front court. But Levance Fields and Gilbert Brown will be the differencemakers here. It will be closer than my confidence indicates. But Xavier's struggles with the turnovers are the doomswitch.
3 Villanova
2 Duke
I have no empirical analysis here. Both sides are very evenly matched. But I choose Villanova. Their defense is strong. They will force bad shots. And Elliot Williams is a freshman. Odds are he can't beat them.
Also, fuck Duke.
Elite Eight
1 Pittsburgh
3 Villanova
Yeah, Villanova beat Pittsburgh by 10. But that was at home. This is a veteran team with good experience. But then again? So is Villanova. Let's break it down. Pitt will win the rebounding battle. And Pitt will win the Turnover battle.
Chalk it up for Pitt.
1 Pittsburgh
16 E. Tennessee St.
I like Courtney Pigram and Kevin Tiggs, and I think they have a chance to keep it below 20. But they can't rebound. DeJuan Blair can go for 25-25 in this one.
8 Oklahoma St.
9 Tennessee
I love the Cowboys in this one. They can take care of the ball. They can limit offensive rebounds. And they are sharpshooters. For a team that is marginal to bad at stopping good looks like Tennessee? That means you get the Cowboys.
5 Florida St.
12 Wisconsin
Pomeroy loves the Badgers. And why not? Florida State is bad at limiting an offenses second look as well as taking care of the ball. And the Badgers can take care of the ball and get second looks. But for a team with good size like the Seminoles? I know how the script is going to go. Toney Douglas and the tall trees of the Seminoles inside are going to eat the Badgers alive in the final minutes.
I wish I was homer enough to give the Badgers the 5-12 win. I just can't.
4 Xavier
13 Portland St.
There is also a high potential for upset here. A team unfazed by taking down a giant with a fanbase that doesn't have to travel that far. They can hit the threes. They are decent at generating turnovers (and Xavier sucks at taking care of the ball). They were here last year, and they have good guards. The problem? Most of their losses? They were to teams with height to them. Xavier is a tall team. A tall team that can hit 3's. My instinct is to get upset nuts. But I cannot.
6 UCLA
11 VCU
Take Virginia Commonwealth. UCLA struggles to draw fouls. This brings Larry Sanders into the game as a raw but an absolutely adequate future Jarvis Varnardo. This leads Eric Maynor to have more room to maneuver. UCLA also has bad perimeter defense. Maynor has to touch the stardom of two years ago. I think he can.
3 Villanova
14 American
Villanova in Philadelphia. It's a team that's kind of good at everything. Donte Cunningham should have a lot of room to work with. They have a deep backcourt. American won't go out like a punk, but it's a veteran team that has to destroy it from beyond the arc and take care of the ball. Long odds of that.
7 Texas
10 Minnesota
This is going to be fun. Or painful. It all depends on whether you like "Hair of the Dog" by Nazareth. Well, nothing against the A-team of Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg. But this is built for Gus Johnson or Bill Rafferty. Both teams love to shotblock. Both teams have excellent perimeter defense. Neither team has great offense. The difference in this game? The turnover battle. Minnesota has lived and died by their ability to generate more turnovers than they give up. Texas can take care of the ball. This is why they advance.
2 Duke
15 Binghamton
Please. One, it's in Greensboro. Two, Binghamton already fouls too much to overcome Duke's fancy footwork and phantom flopping. Three, they don't take care of the ball very well. The fighting Tony Kornheisers time will come. Next season.
Round 2
1 Pittsburgh
8 Oklahoma State
Remember the year when Xavier was game but ultimately lost to Ohio State in overtime? It's not going to follow the same script. Oklahoma State is fast and can hit threes, but a 4 guard attack is catnip for Pittsburgh. If Pittsburgh controls the tempo, and it's a lot more likely to happen? The Panthers walk to the Sweet 16.
4 Xavier
5 Florida State
Both teams have one similar flaw. They are not great at generating turnovers. Both teams have one different advantage. Toney Douglas is veteran and one of the better guards Xavier will see. But Xavier will get second chance looks. So who wins?
Xavier.
11 VCU
3 Villanova
Virginia Commonwealth will be game, but the Larry Sanders show ends here. Donte Cunningham is veteran and the Wildcats can draw fouls pretty effectively. Then, it's just a matter of Scottie Reynolds forcing Eric Maynor into trying to do too much. Nova to the Sweet 16.
7 Texas
2 Duke
There will be no second round schadenfreude here. Put it simply. Duke can generate offense. Texas cannot. If Duke struggled to take care of the ball? Things would be different. But they can. So they go to the Sweet 16.
Sweet 16
1 Pittsburgh
4 Xavier
It was an easy choice here. Xavier may be taller and they may have a tough front court. But Levance Fields and Gilbert Brown will be the differencemakers here. It will be closer than my confidence indicates. But Xavier's struggles with the turnovers are the doomswitch.
3 Villanova
2 Duke
I have no empirical analysis here. Both sides are very evenly matched. But I choose Villanova. Their defense is strong. They will force bad shots. And Elliot Williams is a freshman. Odds are he can't beat them.
Also, fuck Duke.
Elite Eight
1 Pittsburgh
3 Villanova
Yeah, Villanova beat Pittsburgh by 10. But that was at home. This is a veteran team with good experience. But then again? So is Villanova. Let's break it down. Pitt will win the rebounding battle. And Pitt will win the Turnover battle.
Chalk it up for Pitt.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
West Coast: Bringing The Heat
Round 1
1 Connecticut
16 Chattanooga
Mediocre and veteran is still mediocre. Take UConn. Feel good about it.
8 BYU
9 Texas A&M
Both teams are good but flawed. BYU is a great shooting team, but an inside threat can eat it alive. Texas A&M is a team that can draw fouls excellently and rebound decently, but they are poor versus a good three point shooting team. Oh hai? BYU has 4 starters that have a 37 percent shooting percentage beyond the arc. TAKE THE MORMONS!
5 Purdue
12 Northern Iowa
The question is, can the giant Jordan Egelseder get the ball where he wants to. If he can? Then UNI can keep it close. If not? Purdue can win in a walk. UNI is good, but they're a tad too youthful. I think JaJuan Johnson will control the game.
4 Washington
13 Mississippi St.
For being such an excellent shotblocking team, the fighting Jarvis vanardo's are soo poor at rebounding. Washington? Spectacular at generating second chance opportunities off of misses. Also? If Jay Mariotti says you will shock the world, you will lose.
6 Marquette
11 Utah St.
Marquette has a simple script to win the game. Disrupt the passing lanes and get Gary Wilkinson into foul trouble. They do both? Then it would take a bad shooting night to lose. My one-time stealth final four pick at least gets one.
3 Missouri
14 Cornell
A sharpshooting team always finds a way to stay in the game. And even with a solid defense that generates a tremendous amout of steals and an excellent low post presence, Cornell is not going to be one of those teams down by 21 at the half. They're not going to win? But they'll be a good sparring partner.
7 California
10 Maryland
Cal is the pick here. The Golden Bears are a sharpshooting team that can take care of the ball. They are better at stopping second chance looks. They can't generate turnovers, but they will not likely lose the turnover battle. If it comes down to stars? I would trust Cal's Jerome Randle.
2 Memphis
15 CSU Northridge
Memphis. You don't need an analysis as to why.
Round 2
1 UConn
8 BYU
Remember when I said that a team with a good low-post can eat BYU alive? Hi, Hasheem Thabeet. Hi, Jeff Adrien. Welcome to the Sweet 16.
4 Washington
5 Purdue
Washington is great at rebounding. Purdue not so much. Purdue's great at field goal defense. Washington is already not a great shooting team. Purdue's better at generating turnovers. JaJuan Johnson is more of a talent than Jon Brockman. A healthy Robbie Hummell makes it no contest.
3 Missouri
6 Marquette
If Dominic James was helthy, this would have been different. But Missouri is just too strong down low. Marquette can keep it interesting, but this game is Missouri's to win. Leo Lyons FTW.
2 Memphis
7 California
Memphis cannot hit the three. But you know what? It doesn't matter. They're a veteran team who will dominate down low, win the turnover battle, and manage the game on offense. Cal's a good team. Memphis is a great one.
Sweet 16
1 UConn
5 Purdue
Purdue will win the turnover battle. They have all their stars healthy. They will have better guard play. UConn will draw more fouls and get more second chance looks. They will make Purdue take bad shots. They still have A.J. Price willing to take the big shot.
So you see? Evenly matched. A man who found me weird but funny once has a rule. One conference always dominates a tournament. And I just get the sense that Purdue will have a shot at glory.
3 Missouri
2 Memphis
I do like Memphis and I will pick Memphis. But that being said? Leo Lyons can make millions of dollars with a warrior's performance here. And if Missouri can get out and run? This will usurp Gonzaga-UNC as the #1 sweet 16 potential match-up. But Memphis will win, and losing here is no disgrace
Elite 8
5 Purdue
2 Memphis
Trust in Memphis. They are going up against a game but ultimately weaker team on paper. The strengths in the UConn game for the Boilermakers disappear here. Memphis is the Final 4 team. All hail the age of Calipari.
1 Connecticut
16 Chattanooga
Mediocre and veteran is still mediocre. Take UConn. Feel good about it.
8 BYU
9 Texas A&M
Both teams are good but flawed. BYU is a great shooting team, but an inside threat can eat it alive. Texas A&M is a team that can draw fouls excellently and rebound decently, but they are poor versus a good three point shooting team. Oh hai? BYU has 4 starters that have a 37 percent shooting percentage beyond the arc. TAKE THE MORMONS!
5 Purdue
12 Northern Iowa
The question is, can the giant Jordan Egelseder get the ball where he wants to. If he can? Then UNI can keep it close. If not? Purdue can win in a walk. UNI is good, but they're a tad too youthful. I think JaJuan Johnson will control the game.
4 Washington
13 Mississippi St.
For being such an excellent shotblocking team, the fighting Jarvis vanardo's are soo poor at rebounding. Washington? Spectacular at generating second chance opportunities off of misses. Also? If Jay Mariotti says you will shock the world, you will lose.
6 Marquette
11 Utah St.
Marquette has a simple script to win the game. Disrupt the passing lanes and get Gary Wilkinson into foul trouble. They do both? Then it would take a bad shooting night to lose. My one-time stealth final four pick at least gets one.
3 Missouri
14 Cornell
A sharpshooting team always finds a way to stay in the game. And even with a solid defense that generates a tremendous amout of steals and an excellent low post presence, Cornell is not going to be one of those teams down by 21 at the half. They're not going to win? But they'll be a good sparring partner.
7 California
10 Maryland
Cal is the pick here. The Golden Bears are a sharpshooting team that can take care of the ball. They are better at stopping second chance looks. They can't generate turnovers, but they will not likely lose the turnover battle. If it comes down to stars? I would trust Cal's Jerome Randle.
2 Memphis
15 CSU Northridge
Memphis. You don't need an analysis as to why.
Round 2
1 UConn
8 BYU
Remember when I said that a team with a good low-post can eat BYU alive? Hi, Hasheem Thabeet. Hi, Jeff Adrien. Welcome to the Sweet 16.
4 Washington
5 Purdue
Washington is great at rebounding. Purdue not so much. Purdue's great at field goal defense. Washington is already not a great shooting team. Purdue's better at generating turnovers. JaJuan Johnson is more of a talent than Jon Brockman. A healthy Robbie Hummell makes it no contest.
3 Missouri
6 Marquette
If Dominic James was helthy, this would have been different. But Missouri is just too strong down low. Marquette can keep it interesting, but this game is Missouri's to win. Leo Lyons FTW.
2 Memphis
7 California
Memphis cannot hit the three. But you know what? It doesn't matter. They're a veteran team who will dominate down low, win the turnover battle, and manage the game on offense. Cal's a good team. Memphis is a great one.
Sweet 16
1 UConn
5 Purdue
Purdue will win the turnover battle. They have all their stars healthy. They will have better guard play. UConn will draw more fouls and get more second chance looks. They will make Purdue take bad shots. They still have A.J. Price willing to take the big shot.
So you see? Evenly matched. A man who found me weird but funny once has a rule. One conference always dominates a tournament. And I just get the sense that Purdue will have a shot at glory.
3 Missouri
2 Memphis
I do like Memphis and I will pick Memphis. But that being said? Leo Lyons can make millions of dollars with a warrior's performance here. And if Missouri can get out and run? This will usurp Gonzaga-UNC as the #1 sweet 16 potential match-up. But Memphis will win, and losing here is no disgrace
Elite 8
5 Purdue
2 Memphis
Trust in Memphis. They are going up against a game but ultimately weaker team on paper. The strengths in the UConn game for the Boilermakers disappear here. Memphis is the Final 4 team. All hail the age of Calipari.
The Midwest Projections
Round 1
1 Louisville
16 Alabama St./Morehead St.
Obvious pick is obvious. I want Chief Kickingstallionsims to make it past the play-in game. But betting on a 16 to beat a 1 is like betting on getting a Royal Flush. It will happen eventually, but you can't take it.
8 Ohio State
9 Siena
Siena is a scrappy team with good tournament experience. Kenny Hansbrouck is a go-to guy. They generate a lot of turnovers, and this was a team that took it to the Sweet 16 last year. But as for Ohio State? They have Evan Turner, B.J. Mullens, and a short trip down I-70 with a slight turn on I-75. Their size and inside game mean they advance.
5 Utah
12 Arizona
Does Arizona deserve to be here? No. Can they win? They do have a triumverate. Will they win? No. No momentum going into the tournament does not equal the miracle 5-12 upset. I take Utah.
4 Wake Forest
13 Cleveland St.
This really does look like an upset. Jeff Teague struggles to take care of the ball, and the Vikings have two people with fast hands in Cedric Jackson and D'Aundray Brown. Cleveland State already has a big win over a Top 4 seed. Gary Waters is an excellent coach. But they are quite undersized and Wake Forest has talent in the low post. I think this game will be fun to watch. But I just cannot pull the trigger on the upset.
6 West Virginia
11 Dayton
West Virginia is going to pummel Dayton. Dayton is a poor shooting team that wins by hitting the offensive glass hard. West Virginia is a mediocre shooting team that wins by shotblocking, hitting the offensive glass hard, and defending the perimeter. They can beat Dayton's press. And they will advance.
3 Kansas
14 North Dakota St.
This is a game that everybody wants to see as an upset. And there is a lot to it. The Bison are an experienced team of bombers. Ben Woodside and Brett Winkleman are very talented go-to guys. And it will be a semi-home game for them.
But can they pull it off? As much as I want to say it. And my first instinct is to go with the upset. But I just can't. I expect it to go down to the last shot. And I expect a no-call. Kansas advances.
7 Boston College
10 USC
If Taj Gibson plays Taj Gibson's game? Boston College has no answer for it. I say that it's going to happen. Boston College gets their shots blocked and their USC's 1-4 is just too strong for Boston College to handle.
2 Michigan St.
15 Robert Morris
One year, I had a gut feeling that Winthrop was a fifteen seed and could take out #2 seed Tennessee. I don't see it here. Robert Morris will be game. But Michigan state will win it by at least 15.
Round 2
1 Louisville
8 Ohio St.
Now I know Louisville has a tendency to get tripped up by mediocre teams. And I know that Ohio State is a sharp-shooting team that can block shots. Louisville has an inside presence that can tamp down their game. Louisville will be advancing to the Sweet 16.
4 Wake Forest
5 Utah
This is something of an obvious choice. Whereas Wake Forest would have trouble with their first match-up in the draw. You have a team that plays man and can't generate steals. This is catnip for the Wakes. This is why they will win.
3 Kansas
6 West Virginia
Kansas struggles to take care of the ball. And with a defense as strong as West Virginia's? They will make the Jayhawks suffer. I feel like this would be a 71-58 win for the Mountaineers.
2 Michigan St.
10 USC
There are two reasons why you have to go to Michigan State here. 1) Kalin Lucas is a better point guard than Daniel Hackett. 2) This is why Michigan State is better than taking care of the ball. Trust this. Sparty makes it to weekend two.
Sweet 16
1 Louisville
4 Wake Forest
Louisville is going to bring the pain here. Pitino's press promises pain for promising point guard Jeff Teague. Sure, they can keep it close. Wake has good defense. But Louisville will win the Turnover battle. Thereby they get to the elite eight.
2 Michigan St.
6 West Virginia
And the winner of the rebounding battle is going to win this game. And while the Mountaineers can generate a good second chance opportunity or two? They won't be able to stop Sparty from doing their own second chancery. Chalky? Sure. But that's how it goes.
Elite 8
1 Louisville
2 Michigan State
Michigan State's defense will be tough. They will likely win the rebounding battle. The may lose the turnover battle. But if it goes shot for shot? Who do you trust in this matter. Kalin Lucas or Edgar Sosa?
I choose Kalin Lucas. Sparty gets the Midwest. Yeah.
1 Louisville
16 Alabama St./Morehead St.
Obvious pick is obvious. I want Chief Kickingstallionsims to make it past the play-in game. But betting on a 16 to beat a 1 is like betting on getting a Royal Flush. It will happen eventually, but you can't take it.
8 Ohio State
9 Siena
Siena is a scrappy team with good tournament experience. Kenny Hansbrouck is a go-to guy. They generate a lot of turnovers, and this was a team that took it to the Sweet 16 last year. But as for Ohio State? They have Evan Turner, B.J. Mullens, and a short trip down I-70 with a slight turn on I-75. Their size and inside game mean they advance.
5 Utah
12 Arizona
Does Arizona deserve to be here? No. Can they win? They do have a triumverate. Will they win? No. No momentum going into the tournament does not equal the miracle 5-12 upset. I take Utah.
4 Wake Forest
13 Cleveland St.
This really does look like an upset. Jeff Teague struggles to take care of the ball, and the Vikings have two people with fast hands in Cedric Jackson and D'Aundray Brown. Cleveland State already has a big win over a Top 4 seed. Gary Waters is an excellent coach. But they are quite undersized and Wake Forest has talent in the low post. I think this game will be fun to watch. But I just cannot pull the trigger on the upset.
6 West Virginia
11 Dayton
West Virginia is going to pummel Dayton. Dayton is a poor shooting team that wins by hitting the offensive glass hard. West Virginia is a mediocre shooting team that wins by shotblocking, hitting the offensive glass hard, and defending the perimeter. They can beat Dayton's press. And they will advance.
3 Kansas
14 North Dakota St.
This is a game that everybody wants to see as an upset. And there is a lot to it. The Bison are an experienced team of bombers. Ben Woodside and Brett Winkleman are very talented go-to guys. And it will be a semi-home game for them.
But can they pull it off? As much as I want to say it. And my first instinct is to go with the upset. But I just can't. I expect it to go down to the last shot. And I expect a no-call. Kansas advances.
7 Boston College
10 USC
If Taj Gibson plays Taj Gibson's game? Boston College has no answer for it. I say that it's going to happen. Boston College gets their shots blocked and their USC's 1-4 is just too strong for Boston College to handle.
2 Michigan St.
15 Robert Morris
One year, I had a gut feeling that Winthrop was a fifteen seed and could take out #2 seed Tennessee. I don't see it here. Robert Morris will be game. But Michigan state will win it by at least 15.
Round 2
1 Louisville
8 Ohio St.
Now I know Louisville has a tendency to get tripped up by mediocre teams. And I know that Ohio State is a sharp-shooting team that can block shots. Louisville has an inside presence that can tamp down their game. Louisville will be advancing to the Sweet 16.
4 Wake Forest
5 Utah
This is something of an obvious choice. Whereas Wake Forest would have trouble with their first match-up in the draw. You have a team that plays man and can't generate steals. This is catnip for the Wakes. This is why they will win.
3 Kansas
6 West Virginia
Kansas struggles to take care of the ball. And with a defense as strong as West Virginia's? They will make the Jayhawks suffer. I feel like this would be a 71-58 win for the Mountaineers.
2 Michigan St.
10 USC
There are two reasons why you have to go to Michigan State here. 1) Kalin Lucas is a better point guard than Daniel Hackett. 2) This is why Michigan State is better than taking care of the ball. Trust this. Sparty makes it to weekend two.
Sweet 16
1 Louisville
4 Wake Forest
Louisville is going to bring the pain here. Pitino's press promises pain for promising point guard Jeff Teague. Sure, they can keep it close. Wake has good defense. But Louisville will win the Turnover battle. Thereby they get to the elite eight.
2 Michigan St.
6 West Virginia
And the winner of the rebounding battle is going to win this game. And while the Mountaineers can generate a good second chance opportunity or two? They won't be able to stop Sparty from doing their own second chancery. Chalky? Sure. But that's how it goes.
Elite 8
1 Louisville
2 Michigan State
Michigan State's defense will be tough. They will likely win the rebounding battle. The may lose the turnover battle. But if it goes shot for shot? Who do you trust in this matter. Kalin Lucas or Edgar Sosa?
I choose Kalin Lucas. Sparty gets the Midwest. Yeah.
Friday, February 20, 2009
Knockout Saturday...
Now this weekend, you have to watch the majestry of the mid-majors. Illinois State and Niagra fighting to get on the outside looking in of the bubble and whatnot. But while you look and notice that Siena is really kind of awesome, there are eleven major teams playing for their tournament lives. Now sure, some are on the super periphery, but if they pull the upset? The bracketologists have to consider them.
It is a list post, I will order them according to the bracketological implications.
10) Providence vs. Notre Dame
Why even list this game? Notre Dame is an NIT team, Providence's computer numbers are marginal at best. They still would need to steal one of at home vs. Pittsburgh or at Villanova to even be considered. So why list the fighting Keno Davis' as a knockout game? Because a win here likely gets Providence to ten conference wins. And if they can swing eleven? There's a definite chance of Keno Davis winning a coach of the year.
9) Nebraska at Kansas
Now sure, asking for Nebraska to take down Kansas on the road is a tall task. But the fact of the matter? If they can get it done, it's a top notch win in their last ten games over a potential two seed that was on a 38 game home winning streak. Put it this way. If Abe Dagundro and Paul Velander can get that done? Of all the potential 19 win teams, they have to climb the ladder of contention.
8) Kentucky vs. Tennessee
Patrick Patterson's limited play is something that makes this game not as much of a gimme as it could have been. The Vols are strong like Bull in the low post, and you saw what Vanderbilt did with a team that couldn't be at full strength down low. With only one guaranteed win from here on out, Kentucky could find themselves in some trouble if the Vols come out fired up. Remember, Meeks kicked their ass the last time they played.
7) USC vs. Washington
Southern California needs to win one of their next two. Otherwise? They will find themselves in the morass. It would be a resume too similar to Baylor, Georgetown, Miami, Oklahoma State, and Wisconsin. Now maybe they get in, and maybe they stay out. But if they can get to 19 off of a quality win? Then if they go into Stanford and win? That equals twenty.
6) UNLV vs. BYU
Losing at Wyoming just might be a killshot for the Rebels chances. Sure, they will get 20 wins. But beating Air Force is an RPI killer for marginal computer numbers. (Check how Kansas State's RPI fell off the cliff after they beat North Carolina Central.) And they have to beat the top three in conference. BYU does come to Vegas, but they have to go to San Diego State and Utah. (I will say this now. They need to beat BYU to stay alive.)
5) New Mexico vs. San Diego State
New Mexico has a very razor thin margin to work with. But that being said? They have a better chance to get any potential fourth berth for your Mountain West Conference than the aforementioned UNLV. They do play the top two teams. But they have to come to Las Cruces. And that is worth at least five points for the Lobos. Win out? It's 21-10, 12-4 and an RPI that isn't indefensible with an 8-2 record in their last 10 games. But they have to steal two.
4) Georgetown vs. Marquette
Georgetown has a chance of winning four out of his last five. Now this and Louisville will be tough games, but Georgetown is a young team. Losing seven of eight was bound to happen. The thing is? If they can get past that and find a way to use their low post to dominate Marquette? It's a quality win in their last ten. It may only mean a stay of execution, but they thread the needle, it's an 18-win team with good computer numbers (37/3) and a lot of quality wins (UConn, Memphis, Syracuse, Marquette and Louisville).
3) Vanderbilt at Florida
I know, the computer numbers for the Commodores should belie them from any real consideration at this point (91/107), but they also have they eye of the tiger for this game. They got dropped by 25 at home versus the Gators. So yeah, a win here means upset city.
That being said? They steal it and hold serve the rest of the way? They will be on the cutline come selection Sunday. And as for Florida? They still are on the safe line right now. And a loss here doesn't mean death, but their last four are a strong challenge. (@ LSU, Tennessee, @ Mississippi State, Kentucky), so they need this one to feel safe.
2) Boston College at Miami
Why I kept Miami in the Tournament teams bracket is the fact that this game starts a run of four consecutive games for the Hurricanes that they should win. (After this it's @ Virginia, @ Georgia Tech and vs. North Carolina State). But Boston College has their swagger back after they beat Duke last Sunday. And a win here clinches 20 wins overall and a .500 record in conference play. And it would knock out Miami from any real tournament consideration.
1) Baylor at Oklahoma State
The winner of this game has an excellent shot of running themselves back to at least .500 in conference, the loser is very likely going to have to steal one if they want to get there. (Though Baylor's needle is a lot easier to thread than Oklahoma State's. Winning at Texas looks a lot easier than winning at Oklahoma, even if Baylor has a minimal low-post presence.) My gut says that Baylor is going to win this game, but it should be very fun to watch. Tournament atmosphere, two teams that run and gun, and a game that promises to be in the 80's.
So you see? This is going to be one of the truly great weekends of college basketball. The Mid-Majors are shining, teams are fighting for their lives. God love it kids.
Get ready for March.
Drew!
It is a list post, I will order them according to the bracketological implications.
10) Providence vs. Notre Dame
Why even list this game? Notre Dame is an NIT team, Providence's computer numbers are marginal at best. They still would need to steal one of at home vs. Pittsburgh or at Villanova to even be considered. So why list the fighting Keno Davis' as a knockout game? Because a win here likely gets Providence to ten conference wins. And if they can swing eleven? There's a definite chance of Keno Davis winning a coach of the year.
9) Nebraska at Kansas
Now sure, asking for Nebraska to take down Kansas on the road is a tall task. But the fact of the matter? If they can get it done, it's a top notch win in their last ten games over a potential two seed that was on a 38 game home winning streak. Put it this way. If Abe Dagundro and Paul Velander can get that done? Of all the potential 19 win teams, they have to climb the ladder of contention.
8) Kentucky vs. Tennessee
Patrick Patterson's limited play is something that makes this game not as much of a gimme as it could have been. The Vols are strong like Bull in the low post, and you saw what Vanderbilt did with a team that couldn't be at full strength down low. With only one guaranteed win from here on out, Kentucky could find themselves in some trouble if the Vols come out fired up. Remember, Meeks kicked their ass the last time they played.
7) USC vs. Washington
Southern California needs to win one of their next two. Otherwise? They will find themselves in the morass. It would be a resume too similar to Baylor, Georgetown, Miami, Oklahoma State, and Wisconsin. Now maybe they get in, and maybe they stay out. But if they can get to 19 off of a quality win? Then if they go into Stanford and win? That equals twenty.
6) UNLV vs. BYU
Losing at Wyoming just might be a killshot for the Rebels chances. Sure, they will get 20 wins. But beating Air Force is an RPI killer for marginal computer numbers. (Check how Kansas State's RPI fell off the cliff after they beat North Carolina Central.) And they have to beat the top three in conference. BYU does come to Vegas, but they have to go to San Diego State and Utah. (I will say this now. They need to beat BYU to stay alive.)
5) New Mexico vs. San Diego State
New Mexico has a very razor thin margin to work with. But that being said? They have a better chance to get any potential fourth berth for your Mountain West Conference than the aforementioned UNLV. They do play the top two teams. But they have to come to Las Cruces. And that is worth at least five points for the Lobos. Win out? It's 21-10, 12-4 and an RPI that isn't indefensible with an 8-2 record in their last 10 games. But they have to steal two.
4) Georgetown vs. Marquette
Georgetown has a chance of winning four out of his last five. Now this and Louisville will be tough games, but Georgetown is a young team. Losing seven of eight was bound to happen. The thing is? If they can get past that and find a way to use their low post to dominate Marquette? It's a quality win in their last ten. It may only mean a stay of execution, but they thread the needle, it's an 18-win team with good computer numbers (37/3) and a lot of quality wins (UConn, Memphis, Syracuse, Marquette and Louisville).
3) Vanderbilt at Florida
I know, the computer numbers for the Commodores should belie them from any real consideration at this point (91/107), but they also have they eye of the tiger for this game. They got dropped by 25 at home versus the Gators. So yeah, a win here means upset city.
That being said? They steal it and hold serve the rest of the way? They will be on the cutline come selection Sunday. And as for Florida? They still are on the safe line right now. And a loss here doesn't mean death, but their last four are a strong challenge. (@ LSU, Tennessee, @ Mississippi State, Kentucky), so they need this one to feel safe.
2) Boston College at Miami
Why I kept Miami in the Tournament teams bracket is the fact that this game starts a run of four consecutive games for the Hurricanes that they should win. (After this it's @ Virginia, @ Georgia Tech and vs. North Carolina State). But Boston College has their swagger back after they beat Duke last Sunday. And a win here clinches 20 wins overall and a .500 record in conference play. And it would knock out Miami from any real tournament consideration.
1) Baylor at Oklahoma State
The winner of this game has an excellent shot of running themselves back to at least .500 in conference, the loser is very likely going to have to steal one if they want to get there. (Though Baylor's needle is a lot easier to thread than Oklahoma State's. Winning at Texas looks a lot easier than winning at Oklahoma, even if Baylor has a minimal low-post presence.) My gut says that Baylor is going to win this game, but it should be very fun to watch. Tournament atmosphere, two teams that run and gun, and a game that promises to be in the 80's.
So you see? This is going to be one of the truly great weekends of college basketball. The Mid-Majors are shining, teams are fighting for their lives. God love it kids.
Get ready for March.
Drew!
Sunday, February 15, 2009
So, should I offer you a list of the Bubble Teams?
UPDATE: I made a new Top 25. It's just as awesome.
Yes. I should.
Now, as my thought exercises go? This also comes bearing caveats. There will be a list of teams who are close to the enge of making the dance. Also? Future schedules count on my list. So the team that is seemingly mediocre who can get four winnable games in a row to end the year? In.
Now that being said? Here's the breakdown of the teams that are in.
32 conference champions (8 conferences will earn multiple bids)
ACC
North Carolina
Duke
Clemson
Wake Forest
Big 10
Mighigan State
Illinois
Purdue
Big 12
Oklahoma
Missouri
Kansas
Big East
Pittsburgh
UConn
Marquette
Louisville
Villanove
SEC
LSU
Pac-10
Washington
UCLA
California
Arizona State
Mountain West
Utah
San Diego State
BYU
Potential Bubble Busters
Xavier
Memphis
Utah State
Butler
Gonzaga
Siena
Davidson
So where does that leave us? 17 teams to go. Now, we can essentially place the majority of these teams on the barring a disaster they are in line. And we will let a list of a last four out as well as their next four out. And where does this list start?
1. West Virginia (The schedule from here on out is pretty downy soft. (Notre Dame, @ Rutgers, @ Cincinnati, @ South Florida, Depaul, Louisville) Their last game is their toughest, and that's quite winnable. And Alex Ruoff and De'Sean Butler are studs. Morgantown can feel safe lighting a couch on Selection Sunday.)
2. Syracuse (Their remaining schedule is much like an ice cream cookie. Villanova is huge next Sunday. Then they end the year at Marquette. And in between? You can almost guarantee three wins (@ St. John's, Cincinnati, Rutgers) Flynn and Devendorf are a force of nature.)
3. Tennessee (They do have to be road warriors the rest of the way. They travel to every other SEC team on the safeline. The front court power will probably get them one. If not? Their schedule won't have an indefensible loss. Holding serve gets them an at-large on the bottom half of the bracket.)
4. Florida State (Another team with a wicked end of the season schedule. Two road games (Virginia Tech and Boston College) are versus the winnable teams, and the challenges come to Tallahassee (Clemson and Miami). They need to get two of their next three to feel safe on Selection Sunday by merely holding serve.)
5. Ohio State (They hold serve? And they're going to be 9-2 going into the conference tournament. Their computer numbers are currently quite solid as well (RPI/SOS: 26/25). And you know what? I like Evan Turner. He's my leader in the clubhouse for the Joe Alexander memorial "Salad Bar player who takes out Duke two rounds before their seeding.")
6. Texas (There's a developing scenario here. This is a team that had to go to overtime versus a Colorado team that just hit rock bottom. A road game versus Texas A&M, Oklahoma, a road game with Oklahoma State, Baylor, and a road game versus Kansas just might mean that they get a .500 record. It's long odds for that, but that being said? They're playing rather badly. I'd trust the 20 rather than the 80.)
7. Minnesota (They have two near-gimmes at home (Northwestern and Michigan). And for a solidly balanced shooting team that is spectacular at generating transition defense, they will probably get a third game before tournament time comes. And they just might be a tough out in March.)
8. South Carolina (The expectation is that they finish 4-2. The division is tough, and they don't have the Intercontinental Champ, Vanardo, or Chism and Smith. Hold to that and they'll be a scary second round match-up for a top seed.)
9. Florida (No reason to lose to Georgia. But that's fatal in terms from being essentially safe to being very likely safe. The fact is, this team is great at shooting, and when the schedule gets tough (@ LSU, Tennessee, @ Mississippi State, Kentucky)? This team will be in. Trust the sharpshooters. They'll be scary in March.)
10. Kentucky (Patrick Patterson's ankle injury is problematic. He is the low-post threat that they need when they play their next two at Vanderbilt and against Tennessee. He makes everybody better. He should return sometime in the next week. But even if they go 1-5 to end the regular season they will likely be in. Damn the computer numbers and whatnot (62/82).)
That's your safeline. Barring disaster? These teams will be in lock city long before Selection Sunday rolls around. So as for the seven remaining teams? Who's in and who's out? Let's go.
11. Arizona (One of the hottest teams in the country, with decent computer numbers. (44/40) They have an excellent triad and have found their identity as a team after a slow start. So why aren't they on the safe list yet? Because even a mediocre Washington State is still dangerous in Pullman. That means they have four tough games in a row to deal with. (@ Arizona State, @ Washington State, @ Washington, vs. Cal) Wait a week and they could have it locked down.)
12. Dayton (23-3 with wins over Marquette and Xavier. They're tied for the A-10 lead, and Chris Wright is freaking awesome. They should be on the safe list, right? But they nearly lost to St. Louis in Dayton, they travel to Rhode Island and Xavier. Temple is trying to long down a bid for the A-10, and Duquesne is a surprisingly sprightly team. Obviously they won't go 0-5, but this is a team that has played down to its competition. Kind of like Arizona. Wait a week and they should be fine.)
13. USC (As a 15-win team, the Trojans definitely have work to do to get themselves into the tournament. That being said? They have four wins in their schedule. (Oregon, Oregon State, Washington State and some combination of vs. Washington, @ Stanford, or @ Cal) And that will be enough to get them in somewhere in the teens. And I am so rooting for a USC/USC matchup in the brackets.)
14. Wisconsin (The schedule is too easy for them not to make it. (2 games with Indiana and Michigan in Madison equal a 10-8 conference record and 19 wins overall). Ten wins in a major conference is often solid enough for entry. And no matter the irrelevant joke that is Big 10 football? Big 10 Basketball is solid. And they'll likely get Northwestern in their first round conference tournament game which likely gets them to 20 wins.)
15. Miami (I know. They're an under .500 team. But their last four games are very winnable. And if Jack McClinton can outduel Toney Douglas? They will be over .500 in a major conference. I am posting this before Miami plays North Carolina. Obviously? I would move them up the list if they win tonight. This is how I go out on a limb.)
16. Temple (Better computer numbers than UAB, (36/33 vs. 40/51) they played better in the tougher games than UAB. (5-7 vs. 2-8) They play in a tougher conference than UAB. If they can take the games they are supposed to? They'll be able to get to the tournament. And if they beat Dayton? It's locked down.)
17. Cincinatti (The reason why is simple. With computer numbers similar? Wins over UNLV and UAB give them the big dance. And if they can steal one of their next three? I cxan almost guarantee that this will be the Big East's 8th team in the tournament.)
Okay, now we have the 8 on the outside looking in. There's always a chance that this will be subject to change.
18. UAB (It's the age-old debate? The mediocre major conference team versus the above-average mid-major. They have one answer to get them into lock city. Beat Memphis. A win over Memphis is greater than a loss to Cincinatti. Otherwise it's a mix of hot Arizona and stealing an Automatic bid.)
19. Kansas State (Why they're not better than the last two in? Temple will likely finish stronger (8-2 vs. 7-3). Both have fewer bad losses (Kansas State lost to Iowa and Oregon. Temple has a bad loss at Long Beach State. All Cinci's losses are defensible.) Both have a better winning percentage versus the Top 50 RPI. (K-State: 4-8 Cincinnati: 5-9 Temple: 5-8) Both have stronger computer numbers. (K-State: 77/79 Cinci: 50/24 Temple 36/33) And Cincinnati's RPI is only going to rise in conjuction with Georgetown finally hitting the easy part of their schedule.)
20. UNLV (Remember, schedule counts here. The Running Rebels have to travel to two of the three teams ahead of them, and BYU comes to their second home. Losing to Colorado State and TCU means the margin for error here is something just a little too slim if they cannot win at Utah and San Diego State.)
21. Virginia Tech (You could interchange this team with Boston College. Both teams have marginal resumes padded with decent computer numbers. Boston College has more wins, but their strength of schedule is weaker. Virginia Tech is going to have a murderous final two weeks in the schedule (Florida State @ Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, @ Florida State), but they didn't lose at home to Harvard. So here sits the Hokies.) UPDATE: I know I kind of gave this slot to the 6th best ACC team, so as Duke lost in Chestnut Hill, consider the script flipped here.
22. Baylor (Like Wisconsin, they lost six in a row during their conference season. Their computer numbers are solid RPI-52, SOS-15. And on paper? I like this team better than Oklahoma State or Texas A&M. By this time next week we'll find out if I was just kidding on this.)
23. Creighton (They have opportunity to find their way to climb up the ladder. George Mason, Illinois State, and Evansville are three teams in the top 100 of the RPI. If Booker Woodfox and P'Allen Stinnett can buzzbomb their way to winning out to the MVC Finals? You have to consider them for a potential at-large berth. If not? The MVC is a one-bid league.)
24. St. Mary's (CA) (If they beat Utah State? Jeremy Pargo's best efforts will more than likely put by the wayside. Their RPI isn't beyond redemption, and if they can win it without Mills, or even better with Patty Mills? The West Coast conference can coalesce into a two bid league.)
25) Niagra (I could put in a marginal major conference team (a.k.a. good computer numbers with a bad record like Georgetown or Oklahoma State or good record with bad computer numbers like Penn State or the fighting Jarvis Vanardo's) so show me the third way. The third way has the Purple Eagles. They have two home games against Illinois State and Siena. If the fast hands of Tyrone Lewis and Bilal Benn can win? There's another potential two team league.)
And that's it. A bracketological mid-Feburary breakdown of the teams who aren't ready to get themselves in the dance just yet.
You're welcome.
And go to the new list please!
Yes. I should.
Now, as my thought exercises go? This also comes bearing caveats. There will be a list of teams who are close to the enge of making the dance. Also? Future schedules count on my list. So the team that is seemingly mediocre who can get four winnable games in a row to end the year? In.
Now that being said? Here's the breakdown of the teams that are in.
32 conference champions (8 conferences will earn multiple bids)
ACC
North Carolina
Duke
Clemson
Wake Forest
Big 10
Mighigan State
Illinois
Purdue
Big 12
Oklahoma
Missouri
Kansas
Big East
Pittsburgh
UConn
Marquette
Louisville
Villanove
SEC
LSU
Pac-10
Washington
UCLA
California
Arizona State
Mountain West
Utah
San Diego State
BYU
Potential Bubble Busters
Xavier
Memphis
Utah State
Butler
Gonzaga
Siena
Davidson
So where does that leave us? 17 teams to go. Now, we can essentially place the majority of these teams on the barring a disaster they are in line. And we will let a list of a last four out as well as their next four out. And where does this list start?
1. West Virginia (The schedule from here on out is pretty downy soft. (Notre Dame, @ Rutgers, @ Cincinnati, @ South Florida, Depaul, Louisville) Their last game is their toughest, and that's quite winnable. And Alex Ruoff and De'Sean Butler are studs. Morgantown can feel safe lighting a couch on Selection Sunday.)
2. Syracuse (Their remaining schedule is much like an ice cream cookie. Villanova is huge next Sunday. Then they end the year at Marquette. And in between? You can almost guarantee three wins (@ St. John's, Cincinnati, Rutgers) Flynn and Devendorf are a force of nature.)
3. Tennessee (They do have to be road warriors the rest of the way. They travel to every other SEC team on the safeline. The front court power will probably get them one. If not? Their schedule won't have an indefensible loss. Holding serve gets them an at-large on the bottom half of the bracket.)
4. Florida State (Another team with a wicked end of the season schedule. Two road games (Virginia Tech and Boston College) are versus the winnable teams, and the challenges come to Tallahassee (Clemson and Miami). They need to get two of their next three to feel safe on Selection Sunday by merely holding serve.)
5. Ohio State (They hold serve? And they're going to be 9-2 going into the conference tournament. Their computer numbers are currently quite solid as well (RPI/SOS: 26/25). And you know what? I like Evan Turner. He's my leader in the clubhouse for the Joe Alexander memorial "Salad Bar player who takes out Duke two rounds before their seeding.")
6. Texas (There's a developing scenario here. This is a team that had to go to overtime versus a Colorado team that just hit rock bottom. A road game versus Texas A&M, Oklahoma, a road game with Oklahoma State, Baylor, and a road game versus Kansas just might mean that they get a .500 record. It's long odds for that, but that being said? They're playing rather badly. I'd trust the 20 rather than the 80.)
7. Minnesota (They have two near-gimmes at home (Northwestern and Michigan). And for a solidly balanced shooting team that is spectacular at generating transition defense, they will probably get a third game before tournament time comes. And they just might be a tough out in March.)
8. South Carolina (The expectation is that they finish 4-2. The division is tough, and they don't have the Intercontinental Champ, Vanardo, or Chism and Smith. Hold to that and they'll be a scary second round match-up for a top seed.)
9. Florida (No reason to lose to Georgia. But that's fatal in terms from being essentially safe to being very likely safe. The fact is, this team is great at shooting, and when the schedule gets tough (@ LSU, Tennessee, @ Mississippi State, Kentucky)? This team will be in. Trust the sharpshooters. They'll be scary in March.)
10. Kentucky (Patrick Patterson's ankle injury is problematic. He is the low-post threat that they need when they play their next two at Vanderbilt and against Tennessee. He makes everybody better. He should return sometime in the next week. But even if they go 1-5 to end the regular season they will likely be in. Damn the computer numbers and whatnot (62/82).)
That's your safeline. Barring disaster? These teams will be in lock city long before Selection Sunday rolls around. So as for the seven remaining teams? Who's in and who's out? Let's go.
11. Arizona (One of the hottest teams in the country, with decent computer numbers. (44/40) They have an excellent triad and have found their identity as a team after a slow start. So why aren't they on the safe list yet? Because even a mediocre Washington State is still dangerous in Pullman. That means they have four tough games in a row to deal with. (@ Arizona State, @ Washington State, @ Washington, vs. Cal) Wait a week and they could have it locked down.)
12. Dayton (23-3 with wins over Marquette and Xavier. They're tied for the A-10 lead, and Chris Wright is freaking awesome. They should be on the safe list, right? But they nearly lost to St. Louis in Dayton, they travel to Rhode Island and Xavier. Temple is trying to long down a bid for the A-10, and Duquesne is a surprisingly sprightly team. Obviously they won't go 0-5, but this is a team that has played down to its competition. Kind of like Arizona. Wait a week and they should be fine.)
13. USC (As a 15-win team, the Trojans definitely have work to do to get themselves into the tournament. That being said? They have four wins in their schedule. (Oregon, Oregon State, Washington State and some combination of vs. Washington, @ Stanford, or @ Cal) And that will be enough to get them in somewhere in the teens. And I am so rooting for a USC/USC matchup in the brackets.)
14. Wisconsin (The schedule is too easy for them not to make it. (2 games with Indiana and Michigan in Madison equal a 10-8 conference record and 19 wins overall). Ten wins in a major conference is often solid enough for entry. And no matter the irrelevant joke that is Big 10 football? Big 10 Basketball is solid. And they'll likely get Northwestern in their first round conference tournament game which likely gets them to 20 wins.)
15. Miami (I know. They're an under .500 team. But their last four games are very winnable. And if Jack McClinton can outduel Toney Douglas? They will be over .500 in a major conference. I am posting this before Miami plays North Carolina. Obviously? I would move them up the list if they win tonight. This is how I go out on a limb.)
16. Temple (Better computer numbers than UAB, (36/33 vs. 40/51) they played better in the tougher games than UAB. (5-7 vs. 2-8) They play in a tougher conference than UAB. If they can take the games they are supposed to? They'll be able to get to the tournament. And if they beat Dayton? It's locked down.)
17. Cincinatti (The reason why is simple. With computer numbers similar? Wins over UNLV and UAB give them the big dance. And if they can steal one of their next three? I cxan almost guarantee that this will be the Big East's 8th team in the tournament.)
Okay, now we have the 8 on the outside looking in. There's always a chance that this will be subject to change.
18. UAB (It's the age-old debate? The mediocre major conference team versus the above-average mid-major. They have one answer to get them into lock city. Beat Memphis. A win over Memphis is greater than a loss to Cincinatti. Otherwise it's a mix of hot Arizona and stealing an Automatic bid.)
19. Kansas State (Why they're not better than the last two in? Temple will likely finish stronger (8-2 vs. 7-3). Both have fewer bad losses (Kansas State lost to Iowa and Oregon. Temple has a bad loss at Long Beach State. All Cinci's losses are defensible.) Both have a better winning percentage versus the Top 50 RPI. (K-State: 4-8 Cincinnati: 5-9 Temple: 5-8) Both have stronger computer numbers. (K-State: 77/79 Cinci: 50/24 Temple 36/33) And Cincinnati's RPI is only going to rise in conjuction with Georgetown finally hitting the easy part of their schedule.)
20. UNLV (Remember, schedule counts here. The Running Rebels have to travel to two of the three teams ahead of them, and BYU comes to their second home. Losing to Colorado State and TCU means the margin for error here is something just a little too slim if they cannot win at Utah and San Diego State.)
21. Virginia Tech (You could interchange this team with Boston College. Both teams have marginal resumes padded with decent computer numbers. Boston College has more wins, but their strength of schedule is weaker. Virginia Tech is going to have a murderous final two weeks in the schedule (Florida State @ Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, @ Florida State), but they didn't lose at home to Harvard. So here sits the Hokies.) UPDATE: I know I kind of gave this slot to the 6th best ACC team, so as Duke lost in Chestnut Hill, consider the script flipped here.
22. Baylor (Like Wisconsin, they lost six in a row during their conference season. Their computer numbers are solid RPI-52, SOS-15. And on paper? I like this team better than Oklahoma State or Texas A&M. By this time next week we'll find out if I was just kidding on this.)
23. Creighton (They have opportunity to find their way to climb up the ladder. George Mason, Illinois State, and Evansville are three teams in the top 100 of the RPI. If Booker Woodfox and P'Allen Stinnett can buzzbomb their way to winning out to the MVC Finals? You have to consider them for a potential at-large berth. If not? The MVC is a one-bid league.)
24. St. Mary's (CA) (If they beat Utah State? Jeremy Pargo's best efforts will more than likely put by the wayside. Their RPI isn't beyond redemption, and if they can win it without Mills, or even better with Patty Mills? The West Coast conference can coalesce into a two bid league.)
25) Niagra (I could put in a marginal major conference team (a.k.a. good computer numbers with a bad record like Georgetown or Oklahoma State or good record with bad computer numbers like Penn State or the fighting Jarvis Vanardo's) so show me the third way. The third way has the Purple Eagles. They have two home games against Illinois State and Siena. If the fast hands of Tyrone Lewis and Bilal Benn can win? There's another potential two team league.)
And that's it. A bracketological mid-Feburary breakdown of the teams who aren't ready to get themselves in the dance just yet.
You're welcome.
And go to the new list please!
Monday, February 2, 2009
Why Marquette is a stealthy final four pick?
I mean, at this juncture in the season? They are a 2 seed with swagger.
The Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews, Lazar Heyward core is hyperexperienced and who can attack defensively, the basket, as well as from beyond the arc in strong measure. Dominic James should never shoot the ball, but his defense/distribution methods are very excellent.
They are not drawing fouls at the levels they had last season, and they can slow the game down if another team controls the tempo. Quite frankly, this is a team that's a Joey Dorsey-type away from being the belle at the ball.
So that's why they're a final four team. So why are they stealthy? Simple. Their last five are going to be a Grizzly Bear to win.
The smart money is for this team to get to 23-3 by the time the schedule gets rolling. They travel to Georgetown. Then it's #1 UConn in Milwaukee. Then to Freedom Hall for a rivalry game. Then to Pittsburgh for a very hard fought game. They do get Syracuse at home to end the regular season. But they could be 26-7 and a #3 seed by the time the brackets come out.
And that is how the stealth mode just might turn on.
The Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews, Lazar Heyward core is hyperexperienced and who can attack defensively, the basket, as well as from beyond the arc in strong measure. Dominic James should never shoot the ball, but his defense/distribution methods are very excellent.
They are not drawing fouls at the levels they had last season, and they can slow the game down if another team controls the tempo. Quite frankly, this is a team that's a Joey Dorsey-type away from being the belle at the ball.
So that's why they're a final four team. So why are they stealthy? Simple. Their last five are going to be a Grizzly Bear to win.
The smart money is for this team to get to 23-3 by the time the schedule gets rolling. They travel to Georgetown. Then it's #1 UConn in Milwaukee. Then to Freedom Hall for a rivalry game. Then to Pittsburgh for a very hard fought game. They do get Syracuse at home to end the regular season. But they could be 26-7 and a #3 seed by the time the brackets come out.
And that is how the stealth mode just might turn on.
Monday, November 17, 2008
The Most Insanely Early Bracketology that you have ever seen!
The 64 best teams...with no conference games. And I will name a champion. For boredom shits and giggles. If we had to have a big dance to end the year? Who would win. I'll tell you.
1st Round
EAST
1 Niagra vs. 16 South Carolina
8 Oklahoma vs. 9 Towson
5 Xavier vs. 12 Stony Brook
4 Nebraska vs. 13 UCF
6 Seton Hall vs. 11 Ohio
3 Texas vs. 14 Villanova (No D.J. Augustin equals upset.)
7 Maine vs. 10 Memphis
2 Wake Forest vs. 15 Kansas
WEST
1 Washington State vs. 16 Auburn*
8 Tennessee vs. 9 New Mexico State
5 Notre Dame vs. 12 Oklahoma State
4 Texas Tech vs. 13 UAB
6 Marquette vs. 11 Mississippi State (VANARDO'D!)
3 Vanderbilt vs. 14 Iona
7 Florida vs. 10 Iowa
2 Georgia Tech vs. 15 Indiana
MIDWEST
1 Creighton vs. 16 Colorado
8 Duquesne vs. 9 UConn
5 Wyoming vs. 12 Illinois
4 Manhattan vs. 13 Army
6 Michigan State vs. 11 Virginia Commonwealth
3 Michigan vs. 14 Iowa State
7 Brown vs. 10 USC
2 West Virginia vs. 15 Lehigh
SOUTH
1 Northwestern vs. 16 Arkansas Little-Rock
8 Colorado State vs. 9 Georgia
5 Rhode Island vs. 12 UCLA
4 Texas A&M vs. 13 USF
6 Purdue vs. 11 Pittsburgh
3 Duke vs. 14 Belmont
7 Maryland vs. 10 Clemson
2 New Mexico vs. 15 Temple
2nd Round
EAST
16 South Carolina vs. 8 Oklahoma
5 Xavier vs. 4 Nebraska
14 Villanova vs. 6 Seton Hall
10 Memphis vs. 2 Wake Forest
WEST
1 Washington State vs. 8 Tennessee
5 Notre Dame vs. 13 UAB
11 Mississippi State vs. 3 Vanderbilt
7 Florida vs. 2 Georgia Tech
MIDWEST
1 Creighton vs. 9 UConn
12 Illinois vs. 4 Manhattan
6 Michigan State vs. 3 Michigan
10 USC vs. 2 West Virginia
SOUTH
1 Northwestern vs. 9 Georgia
12 UCLA vs. 4 Texas A&M
6 Purdue vs. 3 Duke
10 Clemson vs. 2 New Mexico
SWEET 16
EAST
8 Oklahoma vs. 5 Xavier
14 Villanova vs. 10 Memphis
WEST
1 Washington State vs. 5 Notre Dame
3 Vanderbilt vs. 7 Florida
MIDWEST
9 UConn vs. 12 Illinois
6 Michigan State vs. 2 West Virginia
SOUTH
9 Georgia vs. 12 UCLA
6 Purdue vs. 10 Clemson
ELITE EIGHT
EAST
8 Oklahoma vs. 10 Memphis
WEST
5 Notre Dame vs. 3 Vanderbilt
MIDWEST
9 UConn vs. 6 Michigan State (Because Tom izzo would not take being slept on kindly.)
SOUTH
12 UCLA vs. 6 Purdue
FINAL 4
10 Memphis vs. 5 Notre Dame
6 Michigan State vs. 12 UCLA
CHAMPIONSHIP
5 Notre Dame vs. 12 UCLA
Champion? 12 UCLA
Two things I learned? Purdue would have the toughest road by a million. Also. Georgia and Illinois would be downy soft sweet 16. Also? This was kinda dumb.
BYE!
1st Round
EAST
1 Niagra vs. 16 South Carolina
8 Oklahoma vs. 9 Towson
5 Xavier vs. 12 Stony Brook
4 Nebraska vs. 13 UCF
6 Seton Hall vs. 11 Ohio
3 Texas vs. 14 Villanova (No D.J. Augustin equals upset.)
7 Maine vs. 10 Memphis
2 Wake Forest vs. 15 Kansas
WEST
1 Washington State vs. 16 Auburn*
8 Tennessee vs. 9 New Mexico State
5 Notre Dame vs. 12 Oklahoma State
4 Texas Tech vs. 13 UAB
6 Marquette vs. 11 Mississippi State (VANARDO'D!)
3 Vanderbilt vs. 14 Iona
7 Florida vs. 10 Iowa
2 Georgia Tech vs. 15 Indiana
MIDWEST
1 Creighton vs. 16 Colorado
8 Duquesne vs. 9 UConn
5 Wyoming vs. 12 Illinois
4 Manhattan vs. 13 Army
6 Michigan State vs. 11 Virginia Commonwealth
3 Michigan vs. 14 Iowa State
7 Brown vs. 10 USC
2 West Virginia vs. 15 Lehigh
SOUTH
1 Northwestern vs. 16 Arkansas Little-Rock
8 Colorado State vs. 9 Georgia
5 Rhode Island vs. 12 UCLA
4 Texas A&M vs. 13 USF
6 Purdue vs. 11 Pittsburgh
3 Duke vs. 14 Belmont
7 Maryland vs. 10 Clemson
2 New Mexico vs. 15 Temple
2nd Round
EAST
16 South Carolina vs. 8 Oklahoma
5 Xavier vs. 4 Nebraska
14 Villanova vs. 6 Seton Hall
10 Memphis vs. 2 Wake Forest
WEST
1 Washington State vs. 8 Tennessee
5 Notre Dame vs. 13 UAB
11 Mississippi State vs. 3 Vanderbilt
7 Florida vs. 2 Georgia Tech
MIDWEST
1 Creighton vs. 9 UConn
12 Illinois vs. 4 Manhattan
6 Michigan State vs. 3 Michigan
10 USC vs. 2 West Virginia
SOUTH
1 Northwestern vs. 9 Georgia
12 UCLA vs. 4 Texas A&M
6 Purdue vs. 3 Duke
10 Clemson vs. 2 New Mexico
SWEET 16
EAST
8 Oklahoma vs. 5 Xavier
14 Villanova vs. 10 Memphis
WEST
1 Washington State vs. 5 Notre Dame
3 Vanderbilt vs. 7 Florida
MIDWEST
9 UConn vs. 12 Illinois
6 Michigan State vs. 2 West Virginia
SOUTH
9 Georgia vs. 12 UCLA
6 Purdue vs. 10 Clemson
ELITE EIGHT
EAST
8 Oklahoma vs. 10 Memphis
WEST
5 Notre Dame vs. 3 Vanderbilt
MIDWEST
9 UConn vs. 6 Michigan State (Because Tom izzo would not take being slept on kindly.)
SOUTH
12 UCLA vs. 6 Purdue
FINAL 4
10 Memphis vs. 5 Notre Dame
6 Michigan State vs. 12 UCLA
CHAMPIONSHIP
5 Notre Dame vs. 12 UCLA
Champion? 12 UCLA
Two things I learned? Purdue would have the toughest road by a million. Also. Georgia and Illinois would be downy soft sweet 16. Also? This was kinda dumb.
BYE!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
