The West Bracket.

It has a chance for intrigue. The craziest things you can talk yourself into? From this bracket. Vermont becoming the first 16 seed to take down a #1? Yep. UTEP to the Sweet 16? Yep. BYU to the Final Four. Even that. But my bracket commentary? Here we go.

1 Syracuse vs. 16 Vermont

Here's the thing about Vermont. Their strength is in Marquis Blakely. They don't have the T.J. Sorrentine to rock the three point shot. Syracuse advances.

8 Gonzaga vs. 9 Florida State

Teams that bang on the low post have given Gonzaga some real trouble this year. Not to say that Florida State is a guaranteed lock to win this game. But Gonzaga's weaknesses mesh a lot better with the Noles strengths than the other way around.

5 Butler vs. 12 UTEP

I may not be the first to suggest this as a 12-5 Upset, but I will at least give you a reason as to why. The teams that have beaten Butler are teams that shoot well and have an inside presence. Derrick Caracter provides the inside presence. RANDY Culpepper hops around and calls it comedy from the outside. And slow teams aren't what gave UTEP trouble this year anyway. Butler falls.

4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 Murray State

There's a lot of reasons to like Murray State here. Murray State crashes the offensive glass with style and aplomb. They also generate a lot of turnovers and a team like Vanderbilt can be weak in taking teams off of the defensive glass and protecting the ball. I can't believe I'm talking myself into this. But teams with good guardplay and or teams that can force bad shots inside have been Vanderbilt's big issue. Murray State can do both. Murray State advances.

6 Xavier vs. 11 Minnesota

Minnesota is a talented enough team that they could beat Xavier, but Xavier has enough shooters to make that sort of a scenario highly unlikely. And I trust Xavier's defense. So? The Musketeers roll onto round 2.

3 Pittsburgh vs. 14 Oakland

Please. You don't need me to tell you who wins this game.

7 BYU vs. 10 Florida

Every year I pick BYU in the first round and every year they get pummeled. I know that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing and hoping for a different result? But you know what. This pick is crazy. BYU.

2 Kansas State vs. 15 North Texas

Frank Martin advances to round 2. Thanks for playing Angry Green.

ROUND 2

1 Syracuse vs. 9 Florida State

This result is as easy as the fact that Syracuse generates enough turnovers to make Florida State pay, Florida State can't hit the three, and Syracuse can. Survive and advance PC Oranges. Survive and advance.

12 UTEP vs. 13 Murray State

Remember when I said that UTEP had trouble with teams that run faster than they do? Murray State doesn't. They also have had some issues taking care of the ball. UTEP won't blow them out, but the size and experience will win out.

6 Xavier vs. 3 Pittsburgh

This game feels like a coin flip. But I'm willing to trust in Pittsburgh's ability to control the pace and limit fast break opportunities. So yeah. Pitt goes ahead.

7 BYU vs. 2 Kansas State

I can't pick BYU here. I just can't. Kansas State is the sort of team BYU hasn't seen much if at all this year. And teams that could rebound have been the end of BYU via a right thrashing in previous seasons.

SWEET 16

1 Syracuse vs. 12 UTEP

The run ends for the Miners right here. Faster team, and they'll win on the offensive glass. Onuaku should be back by this point as well. The Cuse may win by 20.

2. Kansas State vs. 3 Pittsburgh

Kansas State has the better defense in this match-up. Pittsburgh may force bad shots, but the Wildcats are better glass cleaners. Kansas State may give up turnovers? But Pittsburgh won't take advantage of that. Kansas State rolls on.

ELITE 8

1 Syracuse vs. 2 Kansas State

This looks like one of those classic 88-84 up and down games where there are 21 lead changes. And if you're living in a world where the game looks like it's going to be tight as well as classic. Bet on the team with the best player. Kansas State does not have Wes Johnson.

So yeah. 2 down 2 to go.

If I had to name the 33 at-large teams?

We can start with the obviously in from the Big Six who aren't leading their conference.

ACC: Duke*, Maryland*, Clemson, Florida State
Big 12: Kansas State, Missouri, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State
Big East: Villanova, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Marquette
Big 10: Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Pac 10: NOBODY (Cal is leading the conference, after all.)
SEC: Vanderbilt, Tennessee

Okay, so where we are here? 18 teams. So we're down to 15 teams. And currently, we have three non Big Six at-large teams. (2 of Xavier, Temple, and Richmond, as well as BYU). That makes 12 teams.

1. Georgetown (They're scuffling badly. They've very likely done enough to get there. Their strength of schedule is 1. And SOS is the strongest factor for bubble teams right now.
2. Virginia Tech (The computer numbers are terrible. But either they beat Georgia Tech and get 10-6 in the best conference ever. Or they get the 12 seed in the first round of the conference tournament.)
3. Louisville (They beat Syracuse and they're an automatic lock. But they'll get a bye into the second round of the tournament. And even if they don't? Their SOS is currently 7.)

4. Rhode Island
5. San Diego State
6. Dayton
--This is the sort of thing where there really is not much available on the Bubble. All these teams have decent resumes, and a team like Mississippi State is fringy with their strength of schedule and road striggles. I could see one of these three teams (Dayton) get left out. But that being said? There could be a problem if all three get left out.

7. Arizona State
8. Florida
9. Georgia Tech (A tough game versus Virginia Tech. But they've won all they were supposed to. They take back Virginia Tech on Saturday? They should be fine with one tournament win.)
10. Wake Forest (The loss to North Carolina is leaving them among the walking wounded. The final regular season game is versus Clemson. Not that the 6th place team of the ACC likely can't get in, but they might be 7th.)

11. Ole Miss
12. Washington
13. Mississippi State

14. UNLV
15. Notre Dame (The RPI is 61. They lost to Loyola Marymount in South Bend. And their strength of schedule isn't nearly enough to overcome both without a deep run in the tournament.)
16. South Florida
17. UAB
18. Illinois (They have to beat Wisconsin twice or Wisconsin/Michigan State. Pretty much dead.)
19. Seton Hall
20. Minnesota (Would need a run to the Big 10 tournament finals to get in.)

I know it looks half-assed. But damnit. I'm bored. So hey. That's okay.

The Ten Things I Learned from this Thought Exercise?

1. The Mid-Major conference tournament to watch? The Colonial Athletic Conference. They have four teams who I would not be surprised to see in the second weekend. Old Dominion already took down Georgetown. But you know what? With Northeastern and Virginia Commonwealth rocking the suburbs, and William and Mary lurking, you will not see ODU win the conference.
2. Virginia Commonwealth will. Utah State will probably run down Louisiana Tech and get the WAC coming into the home stretch. Charlotte also probably won't win the A-10, and with Richmond and Dayton with very similar solid resumes? The March 5th game in Dayton will likely decide who joins Xavier, Temple, and Rhode Island.
3. The Big East dream of 8 bids is very much alive. South Florida has climbed up onto the bubble with Gus Gilchrist nursing a mangled ankle. And I'm sure that all is forgiven for that CMU loss. Louisville will have the super SOS number that will have 20 wins be enough for their entry. Marquette has been suffering through some bad luck this year, but their schedule is soft enough that they can run to the Conference tourney unbeaten.
4. The Pac-10? They will be lucky to get three bids. Arizona State doesn't have the computer numbers. USC's digits are worse. Arizona will inexplicably get a bid just to spite me.
5. Northwestern also could get in despite the computer numbers saying nothing of the sort. Pomeroy has this team going 21-10 and 9-9. If they beat the Golden Gophers at Welsh-Ryan and hold serve with the downy soft schedule. It's the one team that has never made the tournament from a Big Six school that went better than .500 in conference. You think a team like UAB is going to get in over them?
6. Teams like UAB, Wichita State, William and Mary, Richmond, Northeastern, and San Diego State will further prove the continuing irrelevancy of the RPI to the selectionariat. All these teams will have decent to great computer numbers. All will go to the NIT.
7. The most backdooring bubble team in the last four in? Oklahoma State. James Anderson will carry the team upon his back.
8. The worst team that is still currently still alive for an at-large berth? Southern Miss.
9. The three conferences that will steal an at-large berth for a multi-bid league? The MVC, the Horizon, and the West Coast. If Siena doesn't win their tournament? Well. That would be interesting, now wouldn't it?
10. We'll be living in a weird world where the Mountain West will be getting more bids than the Pac-10 and as many as the SEC. The A-10 has a legitimate case for five bids. That's on the level of any conference not named the Big East. I'd be very disappointed if the selection committee shorts these leagues.

The Top 30 teams on the Bubble Watch.

I shall present them without comment, for I am under the gun in terms of writing something else and I will get back to that soon enough.

Projected Auto Bids (in order of RPI)
Kansas
Syracuse
Duke
Kentucky
Michigan State
Northern Iowa
Butler
BYU
Cal
Siena
St. Mary's
Charlotte
Cornell
Northeastern
UTEP
Kent State
Oakland
Louisiana Tech
Sam Houston State
Weber St.
College of Charleston
Murray State
Pacific
Morgan State
Jacksonville
Coastal Carolina
Stony Brook
Arkansas State
Robert Morris
Lehigh
Morgan State
Jackson State

And that means we'll have 31 teams as at-larges. But first? We'll have the teams that should be in barring a complete and total disaster.

Should Be In
West Virginia
Villanova
Kansas State
Georgetown
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Purdue
Rhode Island
Wake Forest
Vanderbilt
Temple
Tennessee
Pittsburgh
Texas A&M
Texas
Gonzaga
Georgia Tech
Baylor

So this leaves us at 52 teams. Which means I will have 13 teams that have an in, and 12 teams that are out.

So...

1. Xavier
2. Ohio State
3. Maryland
4. Ole Miss
5. Florida State
6. Marquette
7. Louisville
8. Florida
9. Washington
10. UNLV
11. Clemson
12. Old Dominion
13. Oklahoma State
14. Florida
15. South Florida
16. Dayton
17. Richmond
18. UAB
19. Missouri
20. Virginia Commonwealth
21. Arizona
22. William and Mary
23. Utah State
24. Witchita State
25. Northwestern
26. Minnesota
27. Tulsa
28. Texas Tech
29. UConn
30. Cincinnati

Now everybody is going to give you a ranking of last 4 in and first 4 out...

And you know what? I will too. With USC in and Baylor out, some would say that a bid has been stolen. Now I say that Joe Lunardi is just being sagacious. USC did enough when they beat UCLA.

That being said? If I do not make a suggestion of the Last four and First four out, I will be doing a disservice to the blogosphere. So here we go now.

Last 4 in:
Maryland (Inconsistent play is overcome with a batch of high quality wins toward the end.)
San Diego State (Their computer numbers are hard to deny.)
Michigan (Michigan's SOS is just too strong to deny with their passable RPI. 43/14. It has to get in.)
Auburn (They are the hottest team in the Big Six going into the tournament, and if you note that Kovortney Barber was injured while they scuffled through the non-conference schedule. They get in.)

First 4 out:
Penn State (Only one team has had a worse RPI and got in. If they beat Iowa in their last regular season game? They would have been in.)
Creighton (Like I said, they got destroyed in their final game. It killed Illinois State last year. It means Creighton will be dead this year.)
St. Mary's (CA) (Can the random post conference tournament game wash away the pain of losing to the Zags by 24? I say no. But the NCAA may make me a liar.)
New Mexico (The best conference champion. Their fatal flaw is that their RPI and SOS is just not strong enough for them to make the tournament with no wins in the conference tournament.)

But the way this year goes? You may find me a genius? A liar? Or somewhere in-between.

Keep watching.

Strange Day in Bubbletown.

Now we'll break it down by conference, but some odd things have happened today. And you have to stop and reassess. We know what we know. But let's reassess it here.

ACC: The six locks are the same. (UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, and Boston College). Maryland got to the semifinals. And as such? There are five keys to look at here. Record/RPI/SOS/Top 50 Record/Last 10 games.

Maryland: (20-12) 9-9 49/22 4-7 6-4

You have to think they've done enough. A look at this resume compared to other resumes along the way of the bubble watch? Especially considering they did beat Michigan. Fucking Michigan.

Big East: If your RPI is below Penn State's, you've got no chance of an at-large. Thus no to Providence. Seven bids. (Louisville, UConn, Pitt, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, and West Virginia).

Big 10: Penn State's done enough. Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State and Minnesota join them. Michigan and Wisconsin?

Michigan: (19-13) 10-10 42/11 6-11 5-5

I'll admit it. It's one that looks slightly better than my team. Slightly...

Wisconsin: (18-12) 10-9 43/13 4-10 7-3

...when you eliminate from consideration the fact that Michigan lost to the Badgers twice.

Big 12: It's a match-up of contrasting styles when Baylor takes on Missouri. Baylor is guard-oriented and built to score. Missouri is frontcourt oriented and built to press. Baylor needs to take the final step to make the NCAA's. But Mizzou is a bad match-up for the Bears. Otherwise? The Big 12 gets six. Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas A&M

Pac-10: As Arizona looks dead, the left for dead USC is suddenly in. The win over UCLA is their 20th win. 11th conference win. 4th win versus a team in the RPI top 50. They go back to the tournament after being dead not even a week ago.

SEC: FUBAR. If you're considering Florida on the outside looking in? South Carolina's resume is just as bad.

Florida: (23-10) 10-8 53/84 1-5 4-6
South Carolina: 21-9 (11-7) 59/93 0-4 5-5

Mississippi State's RPI is still in Providence levels, so you can't really consider them. But what about Auburn? It's a resume that could use another win, but there's one number I want you to pay attention to.

Auburn: 21-10 (11-6) 58/67 2-3 9-1

Yeah, Jeff Lebo's team is coming together. And in a world with similar resumes, the selection committee will hang on to any positive that they can think of. This means that Auburn will be the SEC's third team.

Mountain West: Three berths. San Diego State got to the finals. No excuse for them not to be with BYU and Utah. New Mexico is out because they cross into the 70's with the RPI.

Atlantic 10: With the scrappy Duquesne Dukes making the finals versus Temple? An at-large berth has been stolen (because it was supposed to be Xavier and Dayton). For a comparison point? We'll discuss Temple as an at-large.

Temple: 21-11 (13-5) 33/42 2-5 8-2

If they lose? Tennessee winning out is a big deal for their hopes. Because some mid-major has to win the shaft. And the fighting Bill Cosby's may have to dig it.

C-USA: Memphis beats Tulsa and we can all relax.

Missouri Valley: For Creighton's benefit...

Creighton: 26-7 (15-5) 41/111 2-2 9-1

I know last year is last year. But this team got its ass kicked in the semis by Illinois State. Nobody's considering them an NCAA team. I mean, last year the selection committee torched the selfsame Redbirds for their choke job. But is Creighton safer because they got burned in the Semis? Who watches the ESPNU?

Horizon: Cleveland State and Butler. That's all you need to know.

WAC: Utah State needs to win out. They have not played much and losing to Nevada is bad luck and with this bubble, a malicious wounding.

So with the 34 at large berths and 31 conference champs. (Shows my readership that I never got called on a previous fuckup.) We essentially have 62 teams locked in. So? How do I delineate who's in with who's out?

I honestly don't know. Utah State and Creighton will have strong computer numbers. What if Duqusene and Baylor win? I'm doing this as strict gut work.

Last 4 In
Auburn
USC
Maryland
Wisconsin

First 4 Out
Michigan
Florida
Creighton
New Mexico

Number 65 will all come down to a 10 point win in Ann Arbor on Janurary 2nd. God love college hoops.

Okay, Here's The Deal!

This bubble has tightened up considerably. You don't have so many teams with the ridiculous amount of needle to thread for them to get into the tournament for this plain and simple fact. It's get the tournament or bust. As we go into the last week of Regular season play for the larger conferences as well as the Championship week for the mid to developing majors. We need to double check where we stand.

ACC
Could the ACC get 8 bids? It's a serious question. Duke, UNC, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State and Boston College are all locks. As for the three remaining bubble potentials? Miami has the best computer numbers (45/11) and with games @ Georgia Tech and versus North Carolina State left? They would be the best of the bubble. Maryland does have some tremendous wins (UNC, Michigan State) and their road games are quite winnable (North Carolina State, Virginia). But like Miami, they would probably need to get one tournament win to do it right.

One team would get North Carolina State, one team would get Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech can still make a case. But they have to hit a runner-runner of North Carolina and Florida State in Tallahassee to make their statement. It's long odds in Hokie Town.

Big East
The question for the Big East to start the year was if they could swing a new record for a conference tournament berths. Now the question is, can they even get 8? UConn, Pitt, Villanova, Louisville, and Marquette are pretty sureshot locks. West Virginia and Syracuse are likely in. They just need to get their 20th win.

For Providence? It boils down to their final game at Villanova. They win there? It's two major wins in their last three and the computer numbers (69/37), while mediocre, would not matter. They beat Cincinnati twice. The Bearcats have somewhat of a better resume. Wins over West Virginia and UAB and at UNLV with a (51/20) mean good things. The Bearcats will also get likely get 10 conference wins. If they beat Syracuse? It may be a case of Providence having a legitimate gripe come selection sunday.

And let Georgetown go. They play St. Johns and Miami. The RPI is going to fall into the 50's. That's killer.

Big Ten
And the Big Ten can also get eight teams if everything breaks right. Sure, Illinois, Michigan State, and Purdue are in. Minnesota needs one more win to feel safe. Ohio State needs one more win to feel safe. Wisconsin's strength of schedule is good enough to get them in if they hold serve at home. Beyond that?

Penn State has a shot to lock it in if they can get one more, damning the RPI in the 60's. But like Providence? The 11th conference win is the key. Illinois comes into State College. If Nittany wins here? They would move off the bubble.

The shambling corpse of Michigan keeps avoiding the perceived headshot to their NCAA tournament chances. They do have to go to Wisconsin and Minnesota. Get both? Then we can talk. But you need to get both.

Big 12
The bad play of Texas aside, they just need to beat Baylor in Austin to feel safe. Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri are in. Kansas State's RPI is a joke and like Arizona State last season? They won't make it because of it. So what's left?

Texas A&M has both an RPI and an SOS in the 30's. They will very likely get 21 wins and a .500 conference record. Oklahoma State is going to have the strength of schedule top 15. They will have 20 wins and 9 in conference. If the Cowboys can win versus Kansas State? They have the best shot for five bids. A&M would need to beat what would likely be Nebraska in the first round to get another chance.

Pac-10
It's kind of locked in. UCLA, Cal, Washington, and Arizona State are certain berths. Arizona needs too sweep Cal and Stanford or take one with a tournament win to get a berth. Anybody else needs to run the table. Easy.

SEC
They'll likely get five. LSU is in. Florida needs one more to get in. Tennessee should try and get two to get in. South Carolina needs to win their last home game and not roll craps against Georgia. Kentucky's computer numbers suck again (66/63). If they lose at Florida, would the selection committee have the balls to leave them home if they don't at least get one in the tournament?

No. And that's why they'll get five.

The Bubble Movers and Shakers

1. Texas A&M: The buzzer-beater versus Nebraska now means the Aggies have an excellent shot of getting back to .500 in the Big 12.
2. Providence: You beat the #1 team in the country, and you now likely have a potential play-in game for them at Villanova.
3. Georgetown: Dead. All dead.
4. Ohio State: Back in the saddle again after beating...Penn State.
5. Penn State: They still need 22 wins to get in the tournament.
6. Dayton: STOP LOSING! STOP IT NOW! CREIGHTON DEMANDS IT!
7. Virginia Tech: Winning at Clemson gets them back into the conversation.

Sorry, this was a giant twitteration. I apologize. When I have something better. I will come back.

Bubble Developments and Bullet Points...

I'm going to talk about the current bubble watch in terms of the day to day. Because I can, right?

• Anybody who even perished the thought that the Big 10 was going to get 8 teams into the Big Dance was being sagacious at best and drunken at worst. Yes, I'm looking at you Lunardi. Michigan is dead after getting their ass kicked in overtime to Iowa. And all of the sudden it looks like Ohio State is going to be stuck on the bubble baseline with the 18, 19 wins and a .500 conference record.
• Arizona was game, but like Wisconsin, they left the opportunity for a clinching win on the table.
• And as for Syracuse being unable to beat Villanova? They should win their next three and let the computer numbers do the rest.

Thank you, expect another combine-related post at a later point.

Since Everybody Liked Last Weeks Bubble Top 25?

I figured I would use my brainmeats and go again. After all, if it doesn't involve me trying to be funny? I can do it twice in a row. Because my funny is accidental. But my brainmeats just keep bringing it.

Anyway, the Bubble is still tightening as the inexorable march of time gets toward Selection Sunday. And while some teams have lost their projected safeline designation, like San Diego State, we have teams with new membership. They're mostly from Florida.

Maybe all from Florida.

Anyway...here's the safe teams.

ACC
UNC
Duke
Clemson
Wake Forest
Florida State

Big East
Pittsburgh
UConn
Villanova
Louisville
Marquette

Pac-10
Washington
Arizona State
UCLA
California

Big 10
Illinois
Michigan State
Purdue

Big 12
Oklahoma
Kansas
Missouri

SEC
LSU
Florida

Mountain West
Utah
BYU

Atlantic 10
Xavier

(Note: Odds are that the A-10 is going to get multiple teams, so the Atlantic 10 is going to get the one team safeline that Conference USA is not going to get.)

Safe Likely Conference Champions
Butler
Creighton
Gonzaga
Memphis
Siena
Utah State

And this week we can add a new designation. Just needs one more win to be in.

One More Win
Boston College: (The computer numbers are decent to marginal. If they take down Florida State at home, it's not just clinched. It's superclinched. But they will likely go 21-10 (9-7). At North Carolina State and Georgia Tech at home means that will likely happen.)
Dayton: (Winning one of their next three (@ URI, Temple, @ Xavier) makes them safe. They probably already are, but I have a bad feeling about them. Just a feeling.)

I would also put the winner of the South Carolina-Kentucky game as a team that's in the tournament. But they still both fall on the safeline. So there's that.

So how many bubble teams does that leave us? 13. So let's start the rankings? Remember...future schedules count.

1. West Virginia
2. Syracuse

All they need to do is win two games and that is a task of simplicity for both. The computer numbers can fade it if they only beat DePaul, Rutgers, or South Florida. By this time next week, their cards should be punched.

3. Texas (Blake Griffin's concussion aside, beating Oklahoma is beating Oklahoma. This means they are among the top teams vs. the RPI Top 50 who reside firmly on the safeline. Texas Tech and Baylor at home will get them to 20 wins and over .500 in the Big 12.)
4. Wisconsin (Put it simply? If they manage a win today at the Breslin Center? They could manage a 9 game winning streak going into the conference tournament. And even if they don't? Their worst case of going 7-3 in their last 10 would tie them for the hottest BCS team going into their tournament.)
5. Kentucky (It is essentially a coin toss game between them and South Carolina on Wednesday, and an RPI of 62 at this point is quite high for a team that I would put on the safeline. But they control the tempo on Wednesday and they get LSU on Saturday. Win the week and the RPI problem is sorted.)
6. Ohio State (They didn't hold serve. Northwestern is doing well for Northwestern, but it's still not a good loss. If they beat Illinois at home today? All is forgiven and they'll still likely have 20 wins in them and a 33/34 RPI/SOS.)
7. San Diego State (They have the best case to be the Mountain West's third team in the tournament. Not to say that their schedule is downy soft by any stretch of the imagination, but they have BYU and UNLV coming to San Diego. Go 3-1 in their final four? They win the 3rd Mountain West bid.)
8. Arizona (Probably need one more good win (@ Arizona State, California, @ Washington) for clinching purposes, but with their tradition, passable computer numbers 43/40, 6 wins vs. the RPI Top 50, and 20 likely wins overall and 10 in the Pac-10? They can take it down by just beating Stanford and Washington State.)
9. Minnesota (Similar resume to Arizona. Both have hit about .500 versus the RPI top 100, both have some high-quality wins that they have banked. Both have an excellent chance of getting to 21 wins overall with a .500 or better conference record. Both have similar computer numbers (40/48). Arizona just played a couple of higher notched teams. All they need to do is just beat Michigan and Northwestern at home.)
10. South Carolina (So the odds of 4-2 just got a bit longer. Their next three (@ Kentucky, @ Vanderbilt, Tennessee)? They are horseraces. Win one and they're fine. Thus they can feel relatively safe.)
11. Tennessee (There is always one team that will get in solely on its strength of schedule. Right now? It looks like the Volunteers. Pomeroy expects 18-12 (9-7). That doesn't matter. Their RPI is 26. That doesn't matter. Their Strength of Sechedule is 2. That's all that matters.)

Here's where you'll find out the deep dark secret of this years NCAA tournament. A lot more teams are going to go to the NIT unhappy then make the NCAA's. Right now there are two bids left. And as I type this, there are seven teams that could make a solid case for it. I do not envy the selection committee this year.

12. Maryland (Their emotional win over North Carolina gives them the best winning percentage of what's left versus the RPI top 25. There are plenty of teams with computer numbers that bring more to the table, but the ACC is the best conference by far, and if they can win at North Carolina State and at Virginia? They would have probably have to beat North Carolina State in the tournament. If they do? That's a ticket punched.)
13. Penn State (The computer numbers are bad, (61/84), but if you look at Conference RPI? You have a likely 5th place team in the second best confrence with 21 likely wins in their back pocket and three versus the top 25 in RPI. At this point, as I type this? That's enough. But if they want to stay here? They better get a 22nd win. (The two likely wins are versus Indiana and Iowa, those crack the RPI downward.)

Here's the current batch of the outside looking in. Again, there are five teams that have strong resumes to get into the tournament even if they would currently be out. I would count New Mexico as a team on the list. The potential fourth MWC bid will either belong to them or UNLV.

14. Oklahoma State (I tossed a coin between the Cowboys and the Nittany Lions for the 65th spot. The Cowboys have much better computer numbers (32/11), but that being said? Their most quality win was against Siena and they need to hold serve just to get to .500 in a marginal big six conference. Next Saturday they play Texas. It's in Oklahoma City. Win there and hold serve? They are in great shape.)
15. Texas A&M (Beat Nebraska in Lincoln on Tuesday, and they likely get to .500 in conference and 22 wins, as well as a chance at clinching a spot int he Big Dance when Missouri comes to town on March 7th. If they merely hold serve? They likely don't get themselves to .500 in the Big 12. And that's kind of problematic especially this year.)
16. Temple (Their key is the road game at Dayton. Win here and they'll likely be 13-3 in the A-10 with 21 wins overall, and their current computer numbers would be strong enough that they could just hold serve in the tournament and get in. But the way this year is going? Maybe not.)
17. Miami (They still have a good chance of winning out. Their computer numbers are going to be better than Maryland's. And if it comes down to it? It's going to be the team that plays North Carolina State that has the better shot of culling the ACC's seventh tournament berth.)
18. USC (They needed to beat Washington. With this sort of a morass in terms of the edge of the bubble? They need to run the table to stay out of the NIT graveyard. Cal is their last shot at a win you could consider good. And heaven help them if they lose to Stanford or either Oregon team. 19 wins will not be good enough here.)
19. UNLV (Again, the schedule is something bad. They have strong wins versus the Top 50 (Lousiville, Utah, BYU twice.) But here's the crux of the problem, they have two road games versus Utah (RPI-10) and San Diego State (RPI-48). Their home game is versus Air Force (RPI-287). They need to cull a 22nd win to have a chance of making the dance.)
20. St. Mary's (CA) (Won what they were supposed to. Would probably need to make a run to the finals with a good effort against Gonzaga to make their case perfectly, any loss until then, even a semifinal tournament loss to Portland? And they would be toast. Especially if they make a regualr season boo-boo. Pepperdine and Loyola Marymount have superawful RPI's.)
21. UAB (Decent computer numbers (39/71) that will slowly slide downward with games against Marshall and East Carolina, never mind a potential 9-1 record in their last 10. All they have to do is beat Memphis. Do that and it's a lock. Don't and they cannot get in. No tomorrow's. This Thursday they win or they are dead.)
22. New Mexico (Their problem is wholly depended on their computer numbers. Their RPI is 71. Beating Utah at home will make that rise. Doing it like they did versus San Diego State (75-49), would shoot it up the ladder. But then there's Colorado State, TCU, and Wyoming. Not much quality in those wins, kids.)
23. Georgetown (If they can win out? Then they can usurp Tennessee as the team that gets in solely on the strength of their strength of schedule. They would have to thread the needle of Louisville in DC and at Villanova to do it, but if they can? They will be the Big Easts 8th team.)
24. Michigan (Second best RPI among the currently unlisted. But Georgetown's proverbial needle to thread is a little less difficult than Michigan's. (Purdue, at Wisconsin and at Minnesota are their last three.) They would need to beat Iowa in Iowa City and take two of those three to get into consideration.)
25. Niagra (Beat Siena at home and they have to be in the conversation of at-large berths. That being said? They would need to get themselves a third match-up versus Siena and win out to state their case completely.)

Yes! I made a new list! You're welcome!

Knockout Saturday...

Now this weekend, you have to watch the majestry of the mid-majors. Illinois State and Niagra fighting to get on the outside looking in of the bubble and whatnot. But while you look and notice that Siena is really kind of awesome, there are eleven major teams playing for their tournament lives. Now sure, some are on the super periphery, but if they pull the upset? The bracketologists have to consider them.

It is a list post, I will order them according to the bracketological implications.

10) Providence vs. Notre Dame

Why even list this game? Notre Dame is an NIT team, Providence's computer numbers are marginal at best. They still would need to steal one of at home vs. Pittsburgh or at Villanova to even be considered. So why list the fighting Keno Davis' as a knockout game? Because a win here likely gets Providence to ten conference wins. And if they can swing eleven? There's a definite chance of Keno Davis winning a coach of the year.

9) Nebraska at Kansas

Now sure, asking for Nebraska to take down Kansas on the road is a tall task. But the fact of the matter? If they can get it done, it's a top notch win in their last ten games over a potential two seed that was on a 38 game home winning streak. Put it this way. If Abe Dagundro and Paul Velander can get that done? Of all the potential 19 win teams, they have to climb the ladder of contention.

8) Kentucky vs. Tennessee

Patrick Patterson's limited play is something that makes this game not as much of a gimme as it could have been. The Vols are strong like Bull in the low post, and you saw what Vanderbilt did with a team that couldn't be at full strength down low. With only one guaranteed win from here on out, Kentucky could find themselves in some trouble if the Vols come out fired up. Remember, Meeks kicked their ass the last time they played.

7) USC vs. Washington

Southern California needs to win one of their next two. Otherwise? They will find themselves in the morass. It would be a resume too similar to Baylor, Georgetown, Miami, Oklahoma State, and Wisconsin. Now maybe they get in, and maybe they stay out. But if they can get to 19 off of a quality win? Then if they go into Stanford and win? That equals twenty.

6) UNLV vs. BYU

Losing at Wyoming just might be a killshot for the Rebels chances. Sure, they will get 20 wins. But beating Air Force is an RPI killer for marginal computer numbers. (Check how Kansas State's RPI fell off the cliff after they beat North Carolina Central.) And they have to beat the top three in conference. BYU does come to Vegas, but they have to go to San Diego State and Utah. (I will say this now. They need to beat BYU to stay alive.)

5) New Mexico vs. San Diego State

New Mexico has a very razor thin margin to work with. But that being said? They have a better chance to get any potential fourth berth for your Mountain West Conference than the aforementioned UNLV. They do play the top two teams. But they have to come to Las Cruces. And that is worth at least five points for the Lobos. Win out? It's 21-10, 12-4 and an RPI that isn't indefensible with an 8-2 record in their last 10 games. But they have to steal two.

4) Georgetown vs. Marquette

Georgetown has a chance of winning four out of his last five. Now this and Louisville will be tough games, but Georgetown is a young team. Losing seven of eight was bound to happen. The thing is? If they can get past that and find a way to use their low post to dominate Marquette? It's a quality win in their last ten. It may only mean a stay of execution, but they thread the needle, it's an 18-win team with good computer numbers (37/3) and a lot of quality wins (UConn, Memphis, Syracuse, Marquette and Louisville).

3) Vanderbilt at Florida

I know, the computer numbers for the Commodores should belie them from any real consideration at this point (91/107), but they also have they eye of the tiger for this game. They got dropped by 25 at home versus the Gators. So yeah, a win here means upset city.

That being said? They steal it and hold serve the rest of the way? They will be on the cutline come selection Sunday. And as for Florida? They still are on the safe line right now. And a loss here doesn't mean death, but their last four are a strong challenge. (@ LSU, Tennessee, @ Mississippi State, Kentucky), so they need this one to feel safe.

2) Boston College at Miami

Why I kept Miami in the Tournament teams bracket is the fact that this game starts a run of four consecutive games for the Hurricanes that they should win. (After this it's @ Virginia, @ Georgia Tech and vs. North Carolina State). But Boston College has their swagger back after they beat Duke last Sunday. And a win here clinches 20 wins overall and a .500 record in conference play. And it would knock out Miami from any real tournament consideration.

1) Baylor at Oklahoma State

The winner of this game has an excellent shot of running themselves back to at least .500 in conference, the loser is very likely going to have to steal one if they want to get there. (Though Baylor's needle is a lot easier to thread than Oklahoma State's. Winning at Texas looks a lot easier than winning at Oklahoma, even if Baylor has a minimal low-post presence.) My gut says that Baylor is going to win this game, but it should be very fun to watch. Tournament atmosphere, two teams that run and gun, and a game that promises to be in the 80's.

So you see? This is going to be one of the truly great weekends of college basketball. The Mid-Majors are shining, teams are fighting for their lives. God love it kids.

Get ready for March.

Drew!

So why was I light on Big 12 Berths?

After all, I only gave them five, and this is a good conference with the basketball. I mentioned Baylor as a team on the outside looking in, and Kansas State as a bubble to the bubble team. But you know what? In watching Texas A&M destroy Texas, we may have found our sixth Big 12 team. I know. I know. I'm saying Texas is playing badly.

But check this future schedule.

@ Texas Tech
@ Nebraska
Iowa State
@ Colorado
Missouri

Don't you think they should be able to go 4-1 here? I do. And that means this team gets back to .500 in the Big 12. And with decent computer numbers and actual quality non-conference wins? They would have a better resume than Kansas State. Let's go to the resume watch.

(The Numbers: RPI/SOS/Proj. Record/Proj. Last 10/Proj. Record vs. Top 50)

Texas A&M: 47/32 22-9 (8-8) 7-3 4-6
Kansas State: 76/79 21-10 (9-7) 7-3 3-5

And if this happens? You have to put Texas A&M in the Tournament. I know, Nebraska in Lincoln isn't a gimme. I know, Kansas State did beat Texas A&M in College Station. But you know what? Non-conference resume counts too.

And it may be bad news for Wildcat nation, but like Arizona State last year? The computer's going to be the death of K-State's big dance dreams.

Sorry K-State fan that I gained this preseason, the loss to Oregon's going to get you in the end.

Bubble Watch: Providence Friars

In Feburary, it's a dark time for sports. The Super Bowl is over. Pitchers and catchers and report, and yay. But what else? Nothing.

This is where the Bubble Watch comes in. Every other day or two? We'll roll up here and discuss the divinity of teams on the fence. Today? We'll talk about a new coach and the middle of the Big East pack.



Providence Friars (15-9, 7-5)
RPI: 66
SOS: 42
vs. Top 25: 1-4
vs. Top 50: 3-5
Quality Wins: Syracuse, Cincinnati (2)
Bad Losses: Northeastern

A decent resume. But the bad news is that Cincinnati's seeming quality at present? It's going to fall back down the hill. And there is no win that could gain in quality near enough to replace them. They haven't lost to any suckers, but that being said? Syracuse is not a signature win by any stretch. The 94-91 loss to Villanova may be their nadir.



Remaining Games: Rutgers, @ Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, @ Rutgers, @ Villanova

They need to hold serve. And then they need to steal one. That's how they can feel relatively safe. .500 is okay, but while beating to Notre Dame isn't yawn inducing? They'd rather take Louisville, Pittsburgh, or Villanova. They need quality wins.

Final Judgements
Record: 19-13, 11-9 (Out in Quarterfinals)
Last 12 Games: 5-7

Are they In? *Tosses a coin* They're in.

Bubble Watch: Wisconsin Badgers

In Feburary, it's a dark time for sports. The Super Bowl is over. Pitchers and catchers and report, and yay. But what else? Nothing.

This is where the Bubble Watch comes in. Every other day or two? We'll roll up here and discuss the divinity of teams on the fence. Today? We'll start with a modern power that's been made of close losses and one bad streak.



Wisconsin Badgers (13-9, 5-6)
RPI: 27
SOS: 3
vs. Top 25: 1-3
vs. Top 50: 3-7
Quality Wins: vs. Illinois, @ Virginia Tech, @ Michigan
Bad Losses: at Iowa is the closest thing.

The mishagoes of the Badgers have been discussed in depth on the site. A team that's based on not fouling has fouled too much. They can't defend the three. Scorers can disappear often during crunch time. Suffice it to say? It's been a strange year in Madison.

That being said? Two games with Indiana and strong computer numbers can be worth a lot.



Remaining Games: Iowa, Ohio State, @ Indiana, @ Michigan State, Michigan, @ Minnesota, Indiana

With the sudden burst of momentum and emphatic wins versus Illinois and at Penn State? You can see the Badgers getting to Michigan State on a five game winning streak. You can see a 5-2 finish here. And is 10 Big 10 wins enough? I'd say yeah.

Final Judgements
Record: 19-12, 11-9 (Out after 2nd Big 10 Game.)
Last 12 Games: 8-4

Are they In? 9 Seed.

Bubble Watch: Texas Longhorns...

In Feburary, it's a dark time for sports. The Super Bowl is over. Pitchers and catchers and report, and yay. But what else? Nothing.

This is where the Bubble Watch comes in. Every other day or two? We'll roll up here and discuss the divinity of teams on the fence. Today? We'll start with a slumping power whose holes are prevalent.



Texas Longhorns (15-7, 4-4)
RPI: 44
SOS: 34
vs. Top 25: 1-3
vs. Top 50: 3-3
Quality Wins: vs. Villanova, vs. UCLA
Bad Losses: None officially, but Notre Dame and Arkansas are coming close.

What we have here is a slumping team without a resume. Outside of Villanova? They've beaten second division conference teams with good non-conference schedules. And you know what? Some of the losses that were once quality?

Suffice it to say one is very likely about to hit. 500 as they go down the hill. And the other one? They have one win since. Suffice it to say, they are slumping at both ends of the barrel.



Remaining Games: Oklahoma State, @ Colorado, @ Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma State, Baylor, @ Kansas

The good news? They can get to 20 wins. Hold serve at home, and beat Colorado? They're in. But if you look at bad Texas? You could see 3-5. If they get Oklahoma by a sound margin? 19 wins will be enough.

Final Judgements
Record: 21-11, 10-8 (Out after 2nd Big 12 Game.)
Last 12 Games: 6-6

Are they In? Yes.