Fantastical Risers and Fallers.

If you're living and dying with the marks of a preseason fantasy football magazine, you may as well be already dead. Somebody's going to reach out for Matt Ryan and immediately regret their decision. So, here's what I'm going to do. I'm going to show you risers and fallers.

RISING! Jason Capmbell QB-Washington (Now, this is for right now, but it seems as if Devin Thomas is about to roll up and be a valid choice at wide receiver. If this happens, Jason Cambell becomes a backup with upside.)

FALLING! Shaun Hill QB-San Fransisco (Because he just cannot get rid of the shambling corpse of Alex Smith.)

RISING! Pierre Thomas RB-New Orelans (On the strength of...)

FALLING! Reggie Bush RB-New Orelans (His knee is cursed by Armenian voodoo. Big ass sextaped Armenian voodoo.)


A desperate ploy for hits? Yes.

RISING! Derrick Ward RB-Tampa Bay (With the mess at quarterback, the head of the Running Back core is bound to benefit.)

FALLING! Clinton Portis RB-Washington (Age + LaDell Betts as the 3rd down back equals a second round pick with a high downside risk.)

FALLING! LaDainian Tomlinson RB-San Diego (Because Gartrell Johnson is impressive and LT is 30.)

RISING! Chris Johnson RB-Tennessee and Brandon Jacobs RB-New York Giants (The direct beneficiaries of the previous two fallers.)

FALLING! Leon Washington RB-New York Jets (Because in the scenario, he's the second banana and he's not the goal-line guy either.)

RISING! Fred Taylor RB-New England (He's the head of the Patriots RBBC. Still doesn't make him more than an RB3.)

RISING! Michael Floorwax Morning show host-Denver (Shout out to Waxy Lou! Rising!)

RISING! Rashard Mendenhall RB-Pittsburgh (They want him to take over. They will give him more carries as the year goes on.)

RISING! Kevin Jones RB-Chicago (Can he really be the guy who's going to get all the goalline carries? Really Chicago? Really?)

FALLING! Braylon Edwards WR-Cleveland (Last year's dystopian nightmare was borne out of a leg injury and a slow start. Once bitten and twice shy.)

FALLING! DeSean Jackson WR-Philadelphia (Jeremy Maclin may not start, but as a slot man, he'll make some points that Jackson was supposed to have.)

RISING! Anthony Gonzalez WR-Indianapolis (Hands of glue is looking good in camp.)

RISING! Devin Hester WR-Chicago (He's developing a massive rapport with Cutler and he's going to be the WILDCAT QUARTERBACK!

...I really need a sound effect for that.)

FALLING! Domenik Hixon WR-New York Giants (Because Steve Smith is killing it in camp so far. He may not fall back to WR3, but right now he's not WR1.)

RISING! Josh Morgan WR-San Fransisco (Every day Michael Crabtree holds out, Josh Morgan cements himself as a WR1. Crabtree's making threats he wants to hold out for the year.)

RISING! Chris Henry WR-Cincinnati (Because I told you he was undervalued.)

FALLING! Mushin Muhammad WR-Carolina (Because he's old. And Delhomme sucks. More room in the bandwagon for me.)

RISING! Nate Washington and Justin Gage WR-Tennessee (INCONCEIVABLE!)

FALLING! Earl Bennett WR-Chicago (See Devin Hester)

FALLING! Devery Henderson WR-New Orelans, Mark Bradley WR-Kansas City, and Mark Clayton WR-Baltimore (These teases have opporunities to be the man closed by suck and old men.)

RISING! Derrick Mason WR-Baltimore (The old man who shut the door on Mark Clayton.)

RISING! Percy Harvin WR-Minnesota (But let someone else draft him, okay?)

I owe you a rotissional tier report, eh? Maybe later.

The Undervalued...(ADP Rounds 8-11)

I guess I'm gonna roll up on you with a series. Undervalued from their average draft position. Guys to snap up when the time comes. Not so much sleepers, but sleeper like substances.

Note: I will throw in a defense from the 12-16th round. Especially after Stewart Bradley's ACL injury, this defense has real sleeper value.

QB: David Garrard (10.06 ADP)

There's never much of the Cansei De Ser Sexy with David Garrard. He's never been a stud QB. Somewhere between 10th and 12th place. That's where Garrard lives, though in fairness he hasn't had much to throw to. And for a 10th round pick? It's great value. That being said? There's reason to hope. With Tra Thomas and the draft picks of Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton, you have to figure the offensive line will be stronger than last year.

The receiving corps? It's not without it's upside. Torry Holt could be in line for a renaissance, but his knee is shaky. Mike Walker held off Brandon Marshall in college, but his knees love to shear the ligaments off the bone. But you want to know the strange thing? The Jaguars love all three wideouts that they've drafted. I personally love Jarrett Dillard, but do not sleep on the burner that is Mike Wallace or Tiquan Underwood.

So, what you have here is a fringe starter with tremendous upside.

RB: Ray Rice (8.11 ADP), Earnest Graham (9.10 ADP)

I love Ray Rice. He's a fringe RB2 who could explode. If he gets 300 carries it's 1200 yards and 8 scores (with another 35-40 points as a receiver). It's likely going to be a RBBC scenario. But as it stands? He'll probably get 900 yards rushing, 300 yards receiving, and 8 total scores. Not as sure that he'll be the consistent 20 carry guy.

Earnest Graham is probably going to be the 35-40% of the carries guy in the RBBC that Tampa's going to have if it all breaks right. Will he get the majority of the run on the goal line? Remains to be seen. But you know what? Ward's got a streak of the injury prone in him. And all Mr. Graham does is run with grit and guts. For 9th round ADP, he could steal his way into a Top 20 numbers.

WR: Donnie Avery (8.05 ADP), Domenik Hixon (11.06 ADP)

There are three schools of thought on Donnie Avery. One, he's going to be someone in the Lee Evans school of tantalizing but ultimately disappointing with multiple seasons as a overdrafted bust. Two, he's going to be like Bernard Berrian or Santana Moss as a boom-bust candidate who will run with a 6-181-3, 1-5, 3-161-2, 2-12 series of games. Or three, could he be Greg Jennings? Well, could he be a strong WR2?

I say to that yes. He kind of has a Steve Smith skill set. He's supercharged with speed, and you see him developing the ability to take the slant pattern to the barn. They've done work refurbishing the line, and they don't have anyone else. I believe. He's got 75-1100-8 in his stride.

As for Hixon? You're looking at a potential #1 receiver who did well in replacing a seemingly untenable situation. He dropped a TD in the playoff game and with Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks, you're seeing Giants fans sleep on Hixon. Smith is a valid safety valve, and Nicks does have hands of glue. But someone needs to run the twenty yard out pattern and go up and get it. Bet on Hixon.

TE: Zach Miller (10.12 ADP), John Carlson (9.07 ADP), Dustin Keller (11.02 ADP)

These three tight ends are similar. All are young. All will likely get the number of targets that are commiserate with a wide receiver. All are going into year two or year three. And you're going to see at least one of them go off.

Zach Miller's been the lone dependable part of the Raiders passing game. While he inexplicably had one target last season when the Raiders were in a pure goal line situation? He ended up with 86 targets. Goal line trust waxes and wanes, he's going to get 60 catches and 800 yards either way. It's only a matter of how many scores he gets.

Ironically, considering his ADP anyway, drafting John Carlson is the trickiest proposition. You are not going to see near the attrition that you have seen last year with the Seahawks passing game. But here's the thing, Burleson has disappeared for seasons at a time and Branch has a horrid injury history. Carlson's downside is stagnation. But watch to see who gets the ball in the first quarter.

Rookie quarterbacks are scary. Never mind last seasons rosterability of Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. Rookies are scary. But rookies love the safety valve. And while Jerricho Cotchery will not see his targets drop by any stretch? Most of the missing 120 targets that went to Coles last season are going to go to Dustin Keller.

But here's why Keller is the most likely of these tight ends to breakout. He is the best mix of athleticism and receiving skills that the Jets have. He's going to lose linebackers and overpower safeties. They will gameplan for him, but he's a strong style force.

Def: Green Bay (14.06 ADP)

This may be the insane ramblings of a crazy person. But you look at Dom Capers, and you see a guy who brought three defenses up to speed with great rapidity. And you actually have defensive pieces in Green Bay that were pretty good in 2007, and only had trouble when the glue guy that is Cullen Jenkins went down. Capers generates sacks and stops scores. It's bingo. Considering the torn ACL that we've already seen from Stewart Bradley? Hear me now and believe me later. The Green Bay Packers will be a top 5 defense.

The Undervalued (12-16th round ADP)

Now I know, all I've really done with my blog is get a pity link and change the fashionability of the blog. It looks all avant-garde. I'm happy with it.

Now, as you could tell, the pity link was based on the premise of Kevin Kolb being a great back-up. We're going to be talking fantasy football. I got a start on their tier system last month, and I'll do more this month. But you know what? The kids' a sleeper homer.

So I'll give you a list. At least one per position. These may not be pure sleeper gold. But they may be a nice thing to remember when you're at the end of the draft and stumped.

QB: Jason Campbell (13.12 ADP)

I'm not telling you to bet on a home run from this pick. Not without someone of the Devin Thomas-Malcolm Kelly picks from '08 emerging. But you know what? He is going into the year with no threats to win his job. He also gets a second year with a playbook, rumors that Devin Thomas may be ready to at least be decent, and a last place schedule with three AFC West opponents. He's currently below Brett Favre in terms of ADP. You could do worse.

RB: Kevin Faulk (Undrafted), Michael Bush (14.04 ADP), Jamaal Charles (13.10 ADP)

You could always do worse in terms of an RB4 than Kevin Faulk. And I'm not talking about one of those frakakta Points Per Catch Leagues either. He's always going to get you around 750-800 total yards and 5 scores. And cosidering the aged and injury prone Patriots backfield, he's a no downside end of the draft pick.

Michael Bush gashed Tampa Bay for 177 yards and 2 scores in week 17. It cost a lot of people jobs. Not the least of whom is possibly Justin Fargas. For while Justin Fargas is steady and dull with his injury prone? Michael Bush is big and fast with soft hands. Someone's going to play Deuce McAlister to Darren McFadden's Reggie Bush. I'd bet on the Kentuckian.

Jammaal Charles downside is as another Kevin Faulkish type of back. If that happens? Expect to get about 150 touches, 750 yards, and 3-5 scores. Not bad for end of draft. But the Chiefs want him to become the next Clinton Portis. With his home run speed and slashery. He's put on muscle and has not lost a step. If he keeps his hands on the ball? He will be starting by 2010.

WR: Josh Morgan (15.01 ADP), Mushin Muhammad (14.05 ADP), Chris Henry (14.12 ADP)

Yeah, the 49ers drafted Darkness Crabtree. Yeah, they still don't have a real quarterback. Yeah, but Josh Morgan has the potential to be a fringe WR3. He's killed it in OTA'S. He showed flashes of brilliance during the season in-between a couple of injuries. Let someone else draft the Darkness. Josh Morgan's the value play for you. 14th round steal.

Lost amidst the running game, Steve Smith, and the final horrendous meltdown of Jake Delhomme was the return to a solid #3 WR status of Mushin Muhammad. Really. He was pretty good as a 35 year-old last year. And he does not have that training camp competition that other elderly receivers look like they have to deal with. It's not much upside, but in the 14th round? You get a dude who gets looks.

Trust. It's a hell of a thing. And while many in the media never had a trust in Chris Henry, young Carson Palmer always did. Now that the narrative about Chris Henry is that he's left his actafoolery behind, you can feel good about drafting him. But considering that in the years that he and Palmer had good health and decent brains, he had 15 scores in 125 targets. That's with Housh and with Chad Johnson. Housh is gone. 8-5 and Palmer are still not all good. Laverneus Coles has never been a red zone threat. Chris Henry looks to be downright efficient.

The Titans of the Diva and the Home Run Threat [Tier System: Part Three]

I have to say something. I'm want to do the easy thing. Runner-runner going 1-2. Heck, last year I went runner-runner-runner. But I'll tell you this. You may be behind the curve if you don't take a receiver in the first two rounds.

There are 10 receivers that you can feel comfortable with as your #1. From 11-24? On most of them? There's a reason to have fears of their season on about two-thirds of them.

But I'll give you a new tier system. Remember...

Don't follow this list in order.
If I have their name italicized, I expect them to be busts.
If I have them in the courier bold font? They are sleepers.

Tier One
Larry Fitzgerald (You can almost guarantee a 95-1100-10 season for him if he plays all 16 games.)
Calvin Johnson (He'll be fine no matter who's throwing him the ball. Go long. He'll get it to you.)
Andre Johnson (His only risk is that if Matt Schaub unleashes the ligament tear, he has to have the delightful failures of the NFC North chuck the ducks in his general direction.)
Steve Smith (With the running attack that the Panthers have? He's always facing single coverage. And unless he does something retarded, he will have the benefit of a full complement of games.
Randy Moss (He's not going to catch 23 touchdown passes again. Not by a longshot. However? 1300 yards and 15 scores is not out of the question.)

Tier Two
Greg Jennings (#1 receiver in a great passing game. Not spectacular, just great. If the top 5 are gone? Feel good here.)
Terrell Owens (Year One is motivated TO. Year two is when it all goes to shit. But so long as Trent Edwards keeps Joanna Krupa on speed dial. Things will work out.)
Reggie Wayne (85-1300-8. Mark it down. *makes wanking motion*)
Roddy White (With Tony Gonzalez, the solid mid-late WR1 either gets more single coverage or turns into Dwayne Bowe. I say the former.)

Tier Three
Anquan Boldin (He is the Steven Jackson of pass-catchers so long as he doesn't make a trade.)
Dwyane Bowe (He's the #1 receiver. He gets the lions share of Tony Gonzalez's targets. But he couldn't be bothered to show up to OTA's in shape. Boy's acting like a fool.)
Vincent Jackson (There's not enough targets for him to have a breakout year. Between Gates, Floyd, Tomlinson and Sproles. Vincent Jackson's breakout is going to be quiet.)
Marques Colston (He takes a long time to get back to good off injury. And when you consider he's had issue with several body parts? Not the least his recent knee issue. He's gonna start slow. Hear that.)
Antonio Bryant (Could it be that at long last Antonio Bryant has sent down his demons and is ready to be great? Just wait until Josh Freeman overthrows him on a slant pattern for the FIFTH GODDAMN TIME!)
Chad Eight-Five (Wants to swing the Gilbert Arenas Whimsical-Annoying scale back toward the whimsical. Last shot at redemption.)
Braylon Edwards (Nobody's winning the Browns quarterback job and Braylon's dropsies don't engender trust.)
T.J. Houshmanzahdeh (He's not going to go back to his 100+ catch 14 score days of 2007. But 90 catches and 10 scores is a solid choice for a high #2.)
Roy Williams (I don't care if he's going to be the #1 receiver. I don't care if he's going to get all of Terrell Owens' targets. He is the guy who sinks your team.)
Brandon Marshall (Does contract year supercede his actafoolery? I say yes.)
Wes Welker (He'll lead the league in catches. Also in 12 catch games that don't get you 100 yards in receiving.)
DeSean Jackson (I'm in a league where he just might be a WR1. Returns/Distance Scoring/1 point for every ten yards rushing and receiving. Your mileage may vary. But I will not not bless this selection.)

Tier Four
Eddie Royal (Could this be the Wes Welker to Brandon Marshall's Randy Moss? Yes. But don't expect 100 catches.)
Bernard Berrian (He will have two games that make him look great, and four that will make him look stupid. The Favre inevitable may make him look like a worldbeater in the first half. But he will be merely good.)
Santana Moss (West Coast offense does not allow his skills to flourish. If Malcolm Kelly has a good camp, I will reconsider this.)
Lee Evans (Remember, there are few deep threats quite like him. If you get distance scoring bonuses? This pick just might win you the league in Round 6.)
Kevin Walter (He has good value. He's the red zone threat that gets single coverage. His is the sincere best friend.)
Hines Ward (There is a difference between being unsexy and injury-prone. In the past few seasons, Hines hasn't made it to November healthy. And he's 33. He's had a good run, but his techno may have become unlistenable.)
Santonio Holmes (Usually, with a receiver who starts right away hits his stride in his 3rd or 4th season. With an injury prone Hines Ward? He can bring some magic to the proceedings.)
Jerricho Cotchery (He will get the lions share of Laverneus Coles 118 missing targets and a Brandon Marshall amount of targets for Jerricho Cotchery means WR1 numbers with Round 7 value.)
Anthony Gonzalez (All he does is catch the ball.)
Mark Clayton (At this point, he plays the Derrick Mason role with a home run upside.)
Michael Crabtree (This is sheerly based on instinct, but I think he has a chance to be Anquan Boldin if he's healthy all year.)
Lance Moore (It's not as if you have to use your shoulders to make catches, right? And a torn labrum needs a lot longer than three-four months to heal.)

Tier Five
Devin Hester (Cutler loves his skills, and he loves to throw it deep. Finally, at long last, Hester may be able to graduate from weapon status.)
Domenik Hixon (I trust that he will get a lot of looks now. But watch in camp. A bad camp may make him the #3 for Eli Manning. Be vigilant in watching Hixon.)
Steve Breaston (He gets the looks of a #2, has the skills of a #1, with Boldin's ability to be injury prone? He's a great #3/bye week replacement.)
Donnie Avery (The Football Outsiders would deem this pick a sleeper. My Scoring system would deem this pick a sleeper. But you know what? He's vibe is the same as Berrian. Feast or famine.)
Donald Driver (I'm not saying don't. I'm not saying that I want to be right about this pick. But he's got the sword of damocles and two good #3 potentials on his ass.)
Percy Harvin (This is a lottery ticket pick. A smart coach would give him 5-10 touches a game. In space, he's dangerous. If he stays healthy and doesn't act a fool? His game has level 30 charisma.)
Ted Ginn (He's a deep threat without the ability to gun it deep. Not saying he won't get looks, just saying temper expectations.)
Laverneus Coles (He's a tough player, but he's not as gung ho about the posession receiver ethic as someone like a Houshmanzahdeh. Considering what Chris Henry can do? I would start now, old man.)
Torry Holt (A high character guy, and if he's healthy, he will get run with the team, but expect Issac Bruce as a 49er type of numbers. Okay? Okay.)
Mushin Muhammad (He's 36 for crap sake. They have no one else. He inspires nothing. But he gets targets.)
Justin Gage (Well, suffice it to say he's the most unsexy #1 receiver ever. EVER!)
Bryan Robiskie (Really. He's going to be very popular in the Cleveland area. Basically because he's polished and won't drop stuff. Expectations are low.)
Darrius Heyward-Bey (I'm honestly tempted to put Chaz Schilens in here. DHB may not be Troy Williamson, but he's not in a situation to let his Chris Chambers shine.)
Miles Austin (Ridiculous upside potential. But we all know that. Thus he's not a sleeper anymore.)
Patrick Crayton (I hedge my bets as we get have competitions, but trust me, he's not worth your time.)
Joey Galloway (Now there's a line of logic as to why he'd be a good bye week plug in. As a #3 in 2007, Donte Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney combined for a line of 82-1146-8. If Galloway stays healthy? He's definitely a solid #4.)

Tier Six
Earl Bennett (He does have the college rapport with Cutler. He does have a chance to be firmly entrenched as a possession receiver with a touch of yards after catchability. But do not draft him early without doing your homework on him.)
Deion Branch (If I feel like doing an impression of slightly vindicated Senator Ted Stevens about a player's fantasy prospects about a player. It would be Deion Branch. And that does mean Deion Branch is a series of tubes.)
Greg Camarillo (Greg Camarillo is the perfect sort of receiver for Chad Pennington. But he's not going to break out for a Welker run. He just might be a very good #4.)
Kevin Curtis (He's strictly a bye week plug-in. He's a good bye-week plug-in. But just a plug-in.)
Bobby Engram (206 year old posession receiver with an opoortunity to play.)
Kenny Britt (He's working with Rod Smith and Justin Gage isn't exactly the most difficult sort of roadblock to being the #1 receiver. Probably a great 2010 sleeper, but don't discount him here.)
Demetrius Williams (See the post below...he's got Mike Walker skills.)
Mike Walker (A perennial tease. Whichever rookie is the #3 receiver is the play here. Tiquan Underwood may be getting whispers of next Colston.)
Mark Bradley (Staying healthy is a skill. If he can, Bobby Engram wouldn't come close to being a consideration.)
Steve Smith-NYG (Could both guys cancel each other out? After all...)
Hakeem Nicks (...they both have similar skills and the same opportunity.)
Chris Chambers (Meh.)

QB's and the positions nobody cares are yet to go.

Whee!

The Derrick Mason Retirement.

Means three things for the Ravens.

1) Mark Clayton has to step up to the Derrick Mason role.

You've always thought Mark Clayton could have been better. Maybe you thought he should have been better. But he does have a home run threat to his game, and with Joe Flacco and his big arm? If the Ravens don't make a move, he has a chance for a better late than never breakout.

2) Demetrius Williams

He's got a chance to start at present, and if he stays healthy? He could be great. But he's got a mid-Atlantic Mike Walker sort of a thing about him. Marcus Smith becomes a name for the waiver watch list. Not Justin Harper. Marcus Smith.

3) They have a free shot to make a move.

If they trade for Brandon Marshall, disregard Clayton and the talent from 3-5. Brandon supercedes everything. The same may go for Plaxico Burress. But if the move is Amani Toomer or D.J. Hackett? You have no reason to notice that. Toomer would get outplayed by a certain point this year. D.J. Hackett is a Demetrius Williams who had his shot.

The Motive Means Opportunity Sleepers at Wide Receiver

Okay, you live in a world where some say the sleeper is dead. And in a way? It is. Everybody knows the first wave of sleepers. And you best be paying attention for the second. Kurt Warner and Steve Slaton didn't appear in any sort of magazines, now did they?

That's where I come in. I will give you six names and one situation to look for. Dragger Deep sleepers. These are guys to slam onto the ol' waiver watch list.

Chaz Schillens
Oakland is a mess with pass-catching. DHB has a hamstring issue. Javon Walker has a suck issue. Johnnie Lee Higgins has two routes on the tree. Now Zach Miller is awesome. But who gets the other targets? Schillens. He developed some rapport with Russell when he saw the field in this final two games. He's got a shot to be Russell's #1 receiver this year.

Chris Henry
I know what you're saying. The Cincinnati police department have a mad on for Chris Henry (and that will lead to a suspension). I say to that fie. Fantasy football doesn't have a chemistry score. And when you consider that Palmer has shown a real trust for Chris Henry along the goal line, a league that leans toward scoring may make Henry great value as a late round sleeper.

Josh Morgan
He killed it in camp as a rookie before injuries slowed him up. He has remarkable physical gifts and has to beat out Brandon Jones to see the field. Sure, the quarterback situation is awful, but if someone can get the ball out to the receivers, he's going to get a solid amount of targets. And he will be the deep threat, so to speak.

Deon Butler
He's the new Bobby Engram. He has good solid receiver skills with hands of glue. He's going to make the team as a 4th receiver. However? If the opportunity strikes (and with Deion Branch and Nate Burleson's ability to stay healthy, it's more likely than not). He can develop a lot of trust with the quarterback.

David Anderson
You've seen his skills, and you may not remember them. One of his touchdowns last seasons was puncuated by the Conan O'Brien string dance. This year? He's the Texans third receiver. Alone, it might not be worth much. When Matt Schaub goes down with his inevitable ligament tear? It may not be worth much. But if Kevin Walter or Andre Johnson go down? David Anderson has a chance to be a hero.

Sammie Straughter
I know what you're saying. This guy is going to be the next Marcus Colston? And I say to you, no. But he could roll up on Tampa and take the #2 job. He has a Greg Jennings skill set. Great hands, more quick than fast, a little bit more of a home run threat than what you would expect. And look at who he has to beat. Michael Clayton? Maurice Stovall? Please. That's simply bollocks. Double-S is going to start at some point this season.

The Packers #3
Yeah, they aren't going to throw the ball to such lengths as they had last year, so the three isn't draftable on it's own. But even if Donald Driver is the Packers answer to Rod Smith, injuries are that much worse, lost steps count for more. You can see him disappear right quick. And the Packers have the best 1-5 at wideout in the NFL. The winner of the James Jones/Jordy Nelson battle becomes a must watch scenario.

I'll level with you. There's more receivers that you can consider a pick-up if the right opportunites to come around. I may have a second part to the motive, means, opportunity sleepers post.

The worst part of fantasy football is the Tight End. [Tier System Part Two]

The tight end is like the closer in baseball if there were only three teams that didn't use the Bullpen by comittee. If you love having a position give you minimal points per game, you love the tight end. I mean, drafting a second tight end is very likely not going to be worth your time.

And even this year? You can see there reasons to fail these guys beyond the big three. Heck, there's reasons to worry about the big three.

But I'll give you a new tier system. Remember...

Don't follow this list in order.
If I have their name italicized, I expect them to be busts.
If I have them in the courier bold font? They are sleepers.

Tier One
Jason Witten(Targets? Yes. Red Zone looks? Not as much. Martellus Bennett has some vulture capabilities.)
Tony Gonzalez (He'll fall off from 96-1108-10, but considering the lack of much receiver depth and Matt Ryan's lack of an underneath game? He'll be fine.)
Antonio Gates (If his legs are healthy? He goes back to 100+ targets and a solid weapon, but Vincent Jackson is becoming solid. Malcom Floyd is emerging as well. Is Gates getting phased out? He honestly might be.)

Tier Two
Greg Olson (There are some who think G-reg of the 7th floor crew is going to be spectacular. And he's got good physical skills. But I just don't see how he's going to get enough targets to break out. Hester seems to have finally shown something in OTA's, Bennett has a connection with Cutler, and Desmond Clark may not get 70 targets, but he's not going to see all his looks disappear.)
Chris Cooley (He's unsexy. Seeming new hotness in Greg Olson and Owen Daniels may move him down toward the 7 or 8 in the rankings. He's still the Redskins posession receiver.)
Zach Miller (I liked him as a breakout candidate last year, and he delivered the yards and catches. The touchdowns come this year.)
Owen Daniels (He'll have a chance to show himself worthy of an extension. But here's the thing. The Texans drafted Anthony Hill and James Casey. Casey especially is the sort of Dustin Keller type who can vulture Daniels.)
Dallas Clark (It's four great games, 6 weeks of listings as questionable, and 8 to 10 games of dreck.)
Kellen Winslow (It's another if-then scenario. If the quarterback situation sorts itself out somewhat and if Winslow stays healthy? Then he has a great year. It's a needle that may not be worth the thread.)

Tier Three
Dustin Keller (If there is a vertical passing game, Keller gets the benefits. Stuckey is decent, but injury prone. He has the means and motive. This year he gets opportuinty.)
John Carlson (Greg Knapp is someone who would marry the short passing game if people like Tony Dungy weren't so adamant. Anyway, this means that while they signed Housh, John Carlson's grittiness is going to be successful.)
Kevin Boss (I like Kevin Boss because the situation in Giants camp is a mess. Outside of Hixon there is an opportunity for targets. I'm not saying he's going to be a member of the big three, but he has means and the goal-line targets to be very interesting. While they drafted Beckum, the window is his.)
Bo Scaife (They want Jared Cook to be Dustin Keller. Maybe not so much of a worry this year, but Cook is a weapon and Scaife is not starting material.)
Jeremy Shockey (Stick a fork in him. He's done.)

Tier Four
Tony Sheffler (I was burned by Tony Scheffler last season. He's shown flashes of awesome. But McDaniels doesn't love the pass catcher tight end. And Scheffler doesn't block. I don't trust.)
Heath Miller (Heath needs to be healthy for all 16 games to be worth something. Matt Spaeth is somewhat of a vulture. But if you don't trust Hines Ward? Miller has a chance.)
Visanthe Shiancoe (He just won't get the looks to be anything more than a bye week replacement.)
Donald Lee (The Packers want to transition him out. A good camp from Jermichael Finley and he's toast.)
Marcedes Lewis (Perennial tease.)
Anthony Fasano (Even if David Martin gets more targets this year? He still will get the targets on the goal line. Take him on a bye week and hope he gets six.)

Tier Five
Brent Celek (A fools gold sleeper.)
Vernon Davis (He is West Coast Marcedes Lewis.)
Randy McMichael (If you take an end of the draft flier and McMichael stays healthy? You have a good value. Long odds he stays healthy.)
Brandon Pettigrew (Wait until next season for anything spectacular. But he will get 5 or 6 scores this season.)
Ben Watson (Meh. The New England Tight End scenario is the ugly version of the New England Running Back situation.)
Shawn Nelson (This is a pick designed for Dustin Keller seam splitting over the middle. Great athleticism, great hands, never mind the run blocking. He'll get decent targets. He's not going to be a member of the Top tier, but if Buffalo breaks right? Nelson could be a fringe starter.)