Wednesday, July 15, 2009

The Titans of the Diva and the Home Run Threat [Tier System: Part Three]

I have to say something. I'm want to do the easy thing. Runner-runner going 1-2. Heck, last year I went runner-runner-runner. But I'll tell you this. You may be behind the curve if you don't take a receiver in the first two rounds.

There are 10 receivers that you can feel comfortable with as your #1. From 11-24? On most of them? There's a reason to have fears of their season on about two-thirds of them.

But I'll give you a new tier system. Remember...

Don't follow this list in order.
If I have their name italicized, I expect them to be busts.
If I have them in the courier bold font? They are sleepers.

Tier One
Larry Fitzgerald (You can almost guarantee a 95-1100-10 season for him if he plays all 16 games.)
Calvin Johnson (He'll be fine no matter who's throwing him the ball. Go long. He'll get it to you.)
Andre Johnson (His only risk is that if Matt Schaub unleashes the ligament tear, he has to have the delightful failures of the NFC North chuck the ducks in his general direction.)
Steve Smith (With the running attack that the Panthers have? He's always facing single coverage. And unless he does something retarded, he will have the benefit of a full complement of games.
Randy Moss (He's not going to catch 23 touchdown passes again. Not by a longshot. However? 1300 yards and 15 scores is not out of the question.)

Tier Two
Greg Jennings (#1 receiver in a great passing game. Not spectacular, just great. If the top 5 are gone? Feel good here.)
Terrell Owens (Year One is motivated TO. Year two is when it all goes to shit. But so long as Trent Edwards keeps Joanna Krupa on speed dial. Things will work out.)
Reggie Wayne (85-1300-8. Mark it down. *makes wanking motion*)
Roddy White (With Tony Gonzalez, the solid mid-late WR1 either gets more single coverage or turns into Dwayne Bowe. I say the former.)

Tier Three
Anquan Boldin (He is the Steven Jackson of pass-catchers so long as he doesn't make a trade.)
Dwyane Bowe (He's the #1 receiver. He gets the lions share of Tony Gonzalez's targets. But he couldn't be bothered to show up to OTA's in shape. Boy's acting like a fool.)
Vincent Jackson (There's not enough targets for him to have a breakout year. Between Gates, Floyd, Tomlinson and Sproles. Vincent Jackson's breakout is going to be quiet.)
Marques Colston (He takes a long time to get back to good off injury. And when you consider he's had issue with several body parts? Not the least his recent knee issue. He's gonna start slow. Hear that.)
Antonio Bryant (Could it be that at long last Antonio Bryant has sent down his demons and is ready to be great? Just wait until Josh Freeman overthrows him on a slant pattern for the FIFTH GODDAMN TIME!)
Chad Eight-Five (Wants to swing the Gilbert Arenas Whimsical-Annoying scale back toward the whimsical. Last shot at redemption.)
Braylon Edwards (Nobody's winning the Browns quarterback job and Braylon's dropsies don't engender trust.)
T.J. Houshmanzahdeh (He's not going to go back to his 100+ catch 14 score days of 2007. But 90 catches and 10 scores is a solid choice for a high #2.)
Roy Williams (I don't care if he's going to be the #1 receiver. I don't care if he's going to get all of Terrell Owens' targets. He is the guy who sinks your team.)
Brandon Marshall (Does contract year supercede his actafoolery? I say yes.)
Wes Welker (He'll lead the league in catches. Also in 12 catch games that don't get you 100 yards in receiving.)
DeSean Jackson (I'm in a league where he just might be a WR1. Returns/Distance Scoring/1 point for every ten yards rushing and receiving. Your mileage may vary. But I will not not bless this selection.)

Tier Four
Eddie Royal (Could this be the Wes Welker to Brandon Marshall's Randy Moss? Yes. But don't expect 100 catches.)
Bernard Berrian (He will have two games that make him look great, and four that will make him look stupid. The Favre inevitable may make him look like a worldbeater in the first half. But he will be merely good.)
Santana Moss (West Coast offense does not allow his skills to flourish. If Malcolm Kelly has a good camp, I will reconsider this.)
Lee Evans (Remember, there are few deep threats quite like him. If you get distance scoring bonuses? This pick just might win you the league in Round 6.)
Kevin Walter (He has good value. He's the red zone threat that gets single coverage. His is the sincere best friend.)
Hines Ward (There is a difference between being unsexy and injury-prone. In the past few seasons, Hines hasn't made it to November healthy. And he's 33. He's had a good run, but his techno may have become unlistenable.)
Santonio Holmes (Usually, with a receiver who starts right away hits his stride in his 3rd or 4th season. With an injury prone Hines Ward? He can bring some magic to the proceedings.)
Jerricho Cotchery (He will get the lions share of Laverneus Coles 118 missing targets and a Brandon Marshall amount of targets for Jerricho Cotchery means WR1 numbers with Round 7 value.)
Anthony Gonzalez (All he does is catch the ball.)
Mark Clayton (At this point, he plays the Derrick Mason role with a home run upside.)
Michael Crabtree (This is sheerly based on instinct, but I think he has a chance to be Anquan Boldin if he's healthy all year.)
Lance Moore (It's not as if you have to use your shoulders to make catches, right? And a torn labrum needs a lot longer than three-four months to heal.)

Tier Five
Devin Hester (Cutler loves his skills, and he loves to throw it deep. Finally, at long last, Hester may be able to graduate from weapon status.)
Domenik Hixon (I trust that he will get a lot of looks now. But watch in camp. A bad camp may make him the #3 for Eli Manning. Be vigilant in watching Hixon.)
Steve Breaston (He gets the looks of a #2, has the skills of a #1, with Boldin's ability to be injury prone? He's a great #3/bye week replacement.)
Donnie Avery (The Football Outsiders would deem this pick a sleeper. My Scoring system would deem this pick a sleeper. But you know what? He's vibe is the same as Berrian. Feast or famine.)
Donald Driver (I'm not saying don't. I'm not saying that I want to be right about this pick. But he's got the sword of damocles and two good #3 potentials on his ass.)
Percy Harvin (This is a lottery ticket pick. A smart coach would give him 5-10 touches a game. In space, he's dangerous. If he stays healthy and doesn't act a fool? His game has level 30 charisma.)
Ted Ginn (He's a deep threat without the ability to gun it deep. Not saying he won't get looks, just saying temper expectations.)
Laverneus Coles (He's a tough player, but he's not as gung ho about the posession receiver ethic as someone like a Houshmanzahdeh. Considering what Chris Henry can do? I would start now, old man.)
Torry Holt (A high character guy, and if he's healthy, he will get run with the team, but expect Issac Bruce as a 49er type of numbers. Okay? Okay.)
Mushin Muhammad (He's 36 for crap sake. They have no one else. He inspires nothing. But he gets targets.)
Justin Gage (Well, suffice it to say he's the most unsexy #1 receiver ever. EVER!)
Bryan Robiskie (Really. He's going to be very popular in the Cleveland area. Basically because he's polished and won't drop stuff. Expectations are low.)
Darrius Heyward-Bey (I'm honestly tempted to put Chaz Schilens in here. DHB may not be Troy Williamson, but he's not in a situation to let his Chris Chambers shine.)
Miles Austin (Ridiculous upside potential. But we all know that. Thus he's not a sleeper anymore.)
Patrick Crayton (I hedge my bets as we get have competitions, but trust me, he's not worth your time.)
Joey Galloway (Now there's a line of logic as to why he'd be a good bye week plug in. As a #3 in 2007, Donte Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney combined for a line of 82-1146-8. If Galloway stays healthy? He's definitely a solid #4.)

Tier Six
Earl Bennett (He does have the college rapport with Cutler. He does have a chance to be firmly entrenched as a possession receiver with a touch of yards after catchability. But do not draft him early without doing your homework on him.)
Deion Branch (If I feel like doing an impression of slightly vindicated Senator Ted Stevens about a player's fantasy prospects about a player. It would be Deion Branch. And that does mean Deion Branch is a series of tubes.)
Greg Camarillo (Greg Camarillo is the perfect sort of receiver for Chad Pennington. But he's not going to break out for a Welker run. He just might be a very good #4.)
Kevin Curtis (He's strictly a bye week plug-in. He's a good bye-week plug-in. But just a plug-in.)
Bobby Engram (206 year old posession receiver with an opoortunity to play.)
Kenny Britt (He's working with Rod Smith and Justin Gage isn't exactly the most difficult sort of roadblock to being the #1 receiver. Probably a great 2010 sleeper, but don't discount him here.)
Demetrius Williams (See the post below...he's got Mike Walker skills.)
Mike Walker (A perennial tease. Whichever rookie is the #3 receiver is the play here. Tiquan Underwood may be getting whispers of next Colston.)
Mark Bradley (Staying healthy is a skill. If he can, Bobby Engram wouldn't come close to being a consideration.)
Steve Smith-NYG (Could both guys cancel each other out? After all...)
Hakeem Nicks (...they both have similar skills and the same opportunity.)
Chris Chambers (Meh.)

QB's and the positions nobody cares are yet to go.


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