And not in a Utah if/then sort of scenario. Though the looming Cincinnati-Pittsburgh matchup does bear watching. Put it this way, here's what we know.
1) The computer algorithims are flawed. Texas should not leapfrog TCU by beating Baylor when a ranked TCU beats Utah.
2) The winner of the SEC looks like a lock for one half-of the BCS.
3) The Big 12 Championship game is a 50-50 propisition for entry into the BCS title game.
Now, I know what you're saying. Either they win or they lose, right? it's a 50-50 shot. But here's the deal. There have been 13 games in the history of the Big 12 championship. 10 have had a team either ranked first or second, or with circumstances earlier in the day leading to a win and they're in scenario.
5 teams lost. Now, I grant the premise that Missouri losing in 2007 was not exactly an upset. They played and lost to Oklahoma earlier in the year, after all. But in 1996? Nebraska lost a chance at the Bowl Alliance Championship Series because James Brown was a man on fire. Kansas State has experienced both sides of the coin. Michael Bishop got shocked. And they beat the Heisman trophy winner in 2003.
And Mack Brown has been shocked before by a highly motivated BCS North team that finished strong. Gary Barnett had a National Championship Caliber team for the right two weeks in 2001. And the Longhorns? Don't exactly have the strongest record in the title games.
If Wyoming doesn't shock TCU this week? There's going to be a world changing BCS event. Or a 1 in 3 chance, anyway.