The third round of the Masters is always when the wheat and chaff go their seperate ways. Now, I know everything. Not really, but I saw today's golf among the awkwardness of having my first and middle names shared by the degenerate who killed Adenhart and then joy of the Brewers winning in the 9th.
So who will move? I will tell you.
Chad Campbell: Every three years, Chad Campbell gets a top 3. (2003 PGA, 2006 Masters.) He seems switched on. If he loses out on a top 3 this year, it will be a bad weekend.
Kenny Perry: Five top tens, one championship for Perry this year so far. Ten top tens and four wins since June 1st last year. Nothing on this sort of stage, but Kenny Perry is hot.
Angel Cabrera: He's had a good history of solid Masters preformances. When he's on, he's shown himself to be a consistent player. He throws another 68 down? You have to like his odds on getting the green jacket.
Todd Hamilton: This will be like Ben Curtis in last year's PGA Championship. I see a valiant effort that falls just short on Sunday. He will prove himself not a fluke.
Tim Clark: I want to discount him, but you can't completely discount him. He did spend 2006 on the fringes of contention throughout the Masters. He may not win? But he won't be shook off of the leaderboard.
Anthony Kim: You're reticent to say yes he can. He dropped a 65 today. But he has run some 66-66, 66-67's in two rounds in a row. You're ready to discount him, but don't.
Rory Sabbatini: Nah. He does have a tie for second in 2007 to his credit, but that was on a Sunday after being four shots back. Also, he's a dick.
Shingo Katayama: The sartorial splender has led to one. One top five finish in a major! Ah ah ah! Seriously, sweet hat dude.
Jim Furyk: He scuffled badly on the back 9 today. But anyone who has been in contention for multiple US Open's has the mental toughness to overcome such mishagoes.
Sergio Garcia: As much as it would be hilarious for Taylor Made to lose out on so much money if he gets the green jacket, it likely won't happen. He can break out a 66 on Saturday, but then Sunday would be a problem.
Steve Stricker: Stricker has had a history of being on the fringes and cusps of contention on the final day of many majors. And then he falls off the cliff. Let him go.
Hunter Mahan: Every year in every major, someone has an awesome first day and then falls off the cliff. Meet the guy to completely disregard.
Nick Watney: Three top fives this season. He may not be able to put up a 67, but if the pack starts falling? He can sneak in and take advantage.
Stephen Ames: Never really a man who's finished strong at the Masters. Last year a similar start birthed a 75-75 finish. I can see it happening again.
Henrik Stenson: Finished third last week, two top fives in his last two majors. But he's 6 back. It's a bridge too far.
Geoff Ogilvy: Ogilvy plays big in big tournaments. But he wins when everybody falls back to the pack. Thus, I can't see him make a big move forward.
Vijay Singh: Yeah, Vijay Singh can roll out with a 66. And his worst finish this decade in Agusta was a tie for 18th place. But he's not a guy who's going to steal the Masters. He's 46 for fuck sake.
Phil Mickelson: He went crazy on the back 9. He has three top 10's in his last four tournaments. I'm not saying Lefty will be hefty. But don't be surprised if he rolls up on you with 68-68. May not be enough, but he'll be all ESPN talks abouts.
John Merrick: The Elephant man has the smell of a journeyman on him. Not to say that he can't climb the leaderboard, but a 74 off a 68 doesn't make me feel to confident about it.
Aaron Baddeley: Baddeley does not have the stench of journeyman on him. But the tools have not coalesced into skills just quite yet. And a 74 off a 68? Bad juju.
Graeme McDowell: Six bogeys on the back nine preclude a limit on just how far and how fast they can move. Thanks for playing.
Tiger Woods: Obviously, he can break out a 64 and change everything. But when his precision seems off, it doesn't happen. So not this year.
Sandy Lyle: Nice run today, but he's not going to be worth CBS' time or inclination. He's over 50. They can't catch lightning in a bottle.
Dustin Johnson: Now, I admit he looks like a generic golfer generated for people to lazy to create their own freak on Tiger Woods. But he has good tools. It doesn't look like he'll come close. But never mind the bollocks.
Lee Westwood: Westwood is a grinder. He won't get phased if he hits a double bogey. But he's not exactly the sort of guy who can break out a 64 and change everything. Top 20. Top 10 maybe, but he won't be on the cusp of the green jacket.
Padraig Harrington: He got a stroke of bad luck on 16, and whether or not you believe in the validity of the ruling, it affected him. He can bounce back. And if he is three shots back? Watch out.
Camilo Villegas: The odds are long. But Villegas has had the once a month performance where he hits the top 5. That's what I'd expect later. It's too far for him.
So who wins? Here's my top 5.
1. Kenny Perry
2. Angel Cabrera
3. Chad Campbell
4. Anthony Kim
5. Todd Hamilton and Tim Clark in a tie.
So yeah. Kind of boring right?