Monday, March 9, 2009

The State of the Bubble...

It is kind of dead. We kind of know where everything is and what place it's in. There's little marginality here. We can reasonably assume the at-large right now with a 3 team margin of error. Seriously.

Like take the ACC. You have Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State and Boston College. They can get seven if Maryland or Miami runs to the semis. Pretty simple, yeah?

Move it to the Big East? It's even simpler. Seven in. (Louisville, UConn, Pittsburgh, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, amd West Virginia) Providence needs a tournament game to state their case. And you really can't have a team beat a team three times. (Providence has beaten Cincinnati twice.) Anybody else needs an auto berth at this point.

Big 10 will get seven teams. You get Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State and the two teams that last the longest among Penn State, Minnesota, Michigan and Northwestern. Penn State is not safe because they have bad computer numbers and having your last two games be losses to Iowa and Indiana? You deserve nothing but an NIT bid.

The Big 12? Six teams. Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri are obvious. Texas A&M is safe after they beat Missouri to end the regular season. Oklahoma State has a 25/9. So they're safe. Texas has been inconsistent down the last 12. But they've done enough. What about Kansas State? If UW-Green Bay doesn't deserve an at-large berth, no one with a worse RPI does. Run them to the finals and maybe we'll reconsider.

Pac-10? You know the 4 likely. Washington, UCLA, Arizona State and Cal. Arizona needs a win. USC might need two. (They don't have near the schedule of Arizona.) No one else can not win to get in. (But Washington State has a shot if you want a most likely to steal one).

The SEC? I really don't know. Three teams should be in. (South Carolina, Tennessee and LSU). But are they really going to get more than 4? Kentucky needs to get out and steal it. Florida needs to win two. But here's the question I pose to you. How can you leave Auburn out if they make the SEC Finals? They would be one of the hottest teams in basketball and a tough out in the tournament.

MWC? BYU and Utah are automatic. New Mexico beats TCU and they're in. If the 4/5 winner (a.k.a. San Diego State or UNLV) gets to the finals? They can get a berth.

A-10? Dayton and Xavier are in. Temple gets to the finals? They're back on the bubble.

The Missouri Valley Conference gets 1 bid and likes it.

The West Coast Conference gets may only get two teams if St. Mary's gets the win. Why? Because I already had my 33 at large berths before I got here. Or Penn State falls out. One of the two.

Who knows?

Yes this is me in zappos outfit on TwitPic

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