Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Can the Democrats get 60 senate seats?

The odds are about 1 in 4.

But if you think about it more logically, the odds are a lot longer than that.

Fivethirtyeight has the Democrats gaining a lot of seats in 2008. And if you count Lieberman, then you've got the Democrats at 51. And here's where Fivethortyeight has the Democrats gaining in order of likelyhood.

Mark Warner (Virginia)
Tom Udall (New Mexico)
Morris Udall (Colorado)
Jean Shaheen (New Hampshire)
Mark Begich (Alaska)
Jeff Merkley (Oregon)
Kay Hagan (North Carolina)
Al Franken (Minnesota)

So, if Franken holds on (And considering the polls? His three point lead is definitely in the margin of error. And Dean Barkley is gaining in the polls, don't think we don't remember you getting crazy and electing a Superstar Billy Graham wannabe.) You just need one seat to get to 60. And therein lies the rub.

You've got to take a seat from the Deep South.

And that in a nutshell? Is the rub.

Now, as a Democrat, I do want to see some Republican fools go down. But I understand Demographics and geography. And the Democratic brand still has issues in Kentucky, let alone Georgia and Mississippi.

Not to say that Bruce Lunsford wouldn't be as flat-out evil as Mitch McConnell. He's got a good level of agreeable politics. But then again? McConnell's still up three. His shot is the longest shot to connect.

And personally? I like Jim Martin as a candidate who can bring the taint of Saxby Chambliss' 2002 Senate Election to a close. But there's another that being said issue in the matter. Georgia needs a clear majority winner. And Allen Buckley is polling at a not nominal 4% If it's 48-47? It's meaningless.

This means Mississippi is the best shot for 60. Ronnie Musgrove. He's a Reagan Democrat. He doesn't have the good versus evil gravitas of a Jim Webb. But he is Mississippi's ex-governor. And he is going after Trent Lott's Handpicked replacement. And he is a Republican Congressman.

So maybe.

I dunno. Expect 58-42. That's my guts.

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